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FOREX-Dollar dogged by US debt stalemate; yen seesaws

Published 07/26/2011, 02:08 AM
Updated 07/26/2011, 02:12 AM

* Dollar hits record low vs Swiss franc

* Market doubts debt breakthrough after Obama's call

* Dollar/yen hit 4-mth low, then briefly spikes higher

* No talk of yen-selling intervention, traders say

By Masayuki Kitano

SINGAPORE, July 26 (Reuters) - The dollar hit a record low against the Swiss franc and a four-month trough versus the yen on Tuesday, as investors were sceptical that U.S. President Barack Obama's call for compromise would lead to a swift breakthrough in deadlocked debt talks.

There was broad pressure on the greenback, with the New Zealand dollar climbing to a post-float high, the Australian dollar hitting a three-month peak, while the euro extended its gains versus the dollar after breaching chart resistance.

The dollar seesawed against the yen. Stop-loss dollar selling and speculative sales aimed at taking out an option barrier helped drag the dollar down to a four-month low against the Japanese currency at one point.

But the dollar later briefly spiked higher against the yen, rising nearly a full yen from its four-month low in a matter of minutes. Market players said the dollar's gain stemmed from buying by a hedge fund and some Japanese banks and a short squeeze.

But traders said there was no talk of yen-selling intervention by Japanese authorities, and the dollar quickly retreated from its intraday high.

"Today's comments from Obama didn't offer any specifics and were more of a general appeal, so I think the market may have been disappointed with the lack of progress," said Christopher Gothard, head of FX for Brown Brothers Harriman in Hong Kong.

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The dollar fell 0.2 percent to 78.10 yen . Earlier, it hit a four-month low of 77.883 yen on trading platform EBS, edging closer to a record low of 76.25 yen hit in March.

At one point, the dollar struck a record low versus the Swiss franc of 0.8005 . After trimming a bit of its losses, the dollar was down 0.6 percent at 0.8010 francs.

Adding to pressure on the dollar, the euro rose 0.8 percent to $1.4489 , its rise having gained steam after breaching a series of resistance levels, including the top of the daily Ichimoku cloud and trendline resistance drawn off a peak hit in May.

One possible resistance, and upside target for the euro lies at $1.4519, a 61.8 percent retracement of the euro's May to July slide.

Obama called on Republican and Democratic leaders on Monday night to reach a fair compromise on raising the debt ceiling to avert a "reckless and irresponsible" national default.

In an address to the nation, Obama spelled out the severe economic consequences of a default or even a credit ratings downgrade resulting from failure to strike a deal on raising the $14.3 trillion debt limit and reducing the budget deficit.

"The market is 99.9 percent certain that some sort of agreement will be reached...But the closer they get to the Aug. 2 deadline, the worst the panic is likely to be," said David Scutt, a trader at Arab Bank Australia

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With jitters over the lack of a deal on the debt ceiling and the possibility of a sovereign rating downgrade weighing on the dollar, and the euro facing sovereign debt woes of its own, the yen and emerging Asian currencies may continue to benefit, said Satoshi Okagawa, senior global markets analyst for Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation in Singapore.

"The U.S. yield curve has been steepening with short-term yields staying low, and that is likely to keep pressure on the dollar," Okagawa said.

The New Zealand dollar rising 0.6 percent to $0.8692 , having struck a post-float high of $0.8708 at one point.

The Aussie dollar rose 0.6 percent to $1.0911 . Earlier, it hit a three-month high of $1.0926. (Additional reporting by Antoni Slodkowski and Hideyuki Sano in Tokyo, Reuters FX analyst Rick Lloyd in Singapore and Cecile Lefort in Sydney; Editing by Richard Borsuk)

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