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Forex - Weekly outlook: January 18 - 22

ForexJan 17, 2016 07:18AM ET
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© Reuters. Dollar falls against euro, yen on renewed oil selloff

Investing.com - The dollar fell against the yen and the euro on Friday as a combination of weak U.S. economic data and ongoing risk aversion stemming from a fresh drop in oil prices weighed.

USD/JPY hit lows of 116.50, the weakest since August 24 and settled at 117.04 in late trade, off 0.86% for the day.

The low yielding euro gained ground, with EUR/USD at 1.0915 in late trade.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was last at 98.99, off 0.13% for the day, as gains against the currencies of commodity producing countries limited losses.

Oil prices fell through the $30 a barrel level on Friday, pressured lower by expectations that Iran will resume exports as soon as international sanctions are lifted, amid a global supply glut.

Prices for industrial metals, such as copper and nickel also fell.

The renewed drop in oil and commodity prices sent global equity markets tumbling amid fears of a global economic slowdown.

The dollar also came under pressure after data showing that U.S. retail sales unexpectedly fell in December while U.S. industrial production also fell last month, down for the third consecutive month.

The Commerce Department said U.S. retail sales fell 0.1% in December, compared to expectations of a 0.1% increase.

Separate reports showed that U.S. industrial output fell 0.4% last month, worse than forecasts of a 0.2% drop on lower energy costs, while U.S. producer prices were also down in December.

The Australia dollar tumbled, with AUD/USD hitting lows of 0.6828, the weakest since May 2009, before settling at 0.6862, down 1.73% for the day.

The New Zealand dollar fell to three-and-a-half month lows against the greenback, with NZD/USD at 0.6459 late Friday.

The Canadian dollar fell to fresh 12-year lows against its U.S. counterpart, with USD/CAD rallying 1.22% to 1.4540 in late trade.

The loonie, as the Canadian dollar is also known, was hit by mounting expectations that the Bank of Canada could ease monetary policy further at its upcoming meeting next week in response to fresh falls in oil prices.

In the coming week, investors will be awaiting data on Chinese fourth quarter growth, amid concerns over the outlook for the world’s number two economy, while Friday’s data on euro zone private sector growth will also be in focus.

Investors will also be awaiting monetary policy announcements from the BoC and the European Central Bank.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, January 18

U.S. markets will be closed for Martin Luther King Day.

Tuesday, January 19

China is to publish what will be closely watched data on fourth quarter economic growth and industrial production.

Switzerland is to release data on producer price inflation.

The U.K. is to report on consumer inflation.

In the euro zone, the ZEW Institute is to report on German economic sentiment.

Later in the day, New Zealand is to release inflation figures.

Wednesday, January 20

Australia is to publish private sector data on consumer sentiment.

The U.K. is to release the monthly employment report.

Canada is to publish data on manufacturing and wholesale sales.

The Bank of Canada is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference.

The U.S. is to release reports on building permits, housing starts and consumer price inflation.

Thursday, January 21

The ECB is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.

The U.S. is to release data on manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region and the weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, January 22

The euro zone is to release survey data on manufacturing and service sector activity. Germany and France are also to release individual reports.

The U.K. is to release data on retail sales and public sector borrowing.

Canada is to produce figures on retail sales and consumer prices.

The U.S. is to round up the week with data on existing home sales.

Forex - Weekly outlook: January 18 - 22

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