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Forex - EUR/USD weekly outlook: June 30 - July 4

Published 06/29/2014, 11:24 AM
Euro ends week higher against softer dollar
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Investing.com - The euro moved higher against the broadly weaker dollar on Friday as concerns over the outlook for U.S. economic growth continued to weigh, despite a report showing that U.S. consumer sentiment improved this month.

EUR/USD ended Friday’s session at 1.3649, up 0.28%. For the week, the pair added 0.43%.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.3600 and resistance at 1.3670.

The dollar remained lower after data on Friday showed that the final reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose to 82.5 this month from 81.9 in May, compared to expectations of 82.2.

The report did little to alter expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates on hold for an extended period after data earlier in the week showed that U.S. first quarter growth was revised sharply lower.

The dollar weakened across the board after the Commerce Department said Wednesday that the economy contracted at an annual rate of 2.9% in the first three months of the year, compared to the consensus forecast for a decline of 1.7%.

U.S. first quarter GDP was initially reported to have increased by 0.1%, but was subsequently revised to show a contraction of 1.0%.

The dollar came under additional pressure after data on Thursday showed that U.S. consumer spending rose by just 0.2% in May, below forecasts for 0.4%.

The euro was flat against the yen late Friday, with EUR/JPY at 138.45, and ended the week down 0.22%.

The yen was boosted after stronger-than-forecast data on Japanese retail sales for May curbed expectations for additional monetary easing by the Bank of Japan.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking to the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report on Thursday for further indications on the strength of the labor market, while Monday’s euro zone inflation report will also be in focus, ahead of the European Central Bank’s policy meeting and press conference on Thursday.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, June 30

The euro zone is to produce preliminary data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation. Meanwhile, Germany is to publish data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

The U.S. is to produce data on manufacturing activity in the Chicago region and a report on pending home sales.

Tuesday, July 1

The euro zone is to release data on the unemployment rate. Germany is release data on the change in the number of people unemployed, while Spain and Italy are to release reports on manufacturing activity.

Later Tuesday, the Institute of Supply Management is to publish a report on U.S. manufacturing activity.

Wednesday, July 2

In the euro zone, Spain is release data on the change in the number of people unemployed.

The U.S. is to release the ADP report on private sector job creation, as well as data on factory orders.

Later Wednesday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to speak at an event in Washington; her comments will be closely watched.

Thursday, July 3

The euro zone is to release data on retail sales, while Spain and Italy are to publish data on service sector activity. The ECB is to announce its benchmark interest rate. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference with President Mario Draghi.

The U.S. is to release data on the trade balance, as well as the weekly report on initial jobless claims.

The U.S. is also to publish what will be closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate, one day ahead of schedule due to the fourth of July holiday.

Later Thursday, the ISM is to publish a report service sector activity.

Friday, July 4

Germany is to publish data on factory orders.

Markets in the U.S. are to remain closed for the Independence Day holiday.

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