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BUY OR SELL-Cocoa at highs but is a sell-off coming?

Published 12/17/2009, 12:08 PM
Updated 12/17/2009, 12:12 PM
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* Heightened interest in cocoa from investment funds

* Dollar performance seen critical for cocoa price outlook

By David Brough

LONDON, Dec 17 (Reuters) - Cocoa futures have soared to the highest levels in more than 30 years, driven by tight supplies caused by adverse weather and disease and a lack of investment in key West African producers.

Some traders believe that the market fundamentals are so tight and the flood of fund money so great, that further upside in prices is inevitable into the first quarter of 2010.

However, others believe the market is now over-bought and risks a sell-off to re-connect with industry buyers.

London's May cocoa rose 24 pounds or 1 percent to 2,350 pounds a tonne on Thursday, the highest for the benchmark second month since Oct. 1977, according to Thomson Reuters data.

Cocoa futures on ICE fell back on Thursday after soaring to the highest level in more than 30 years on Wednesday. March fell $38 or 1 percent to $3,460 a tonne in the afternoon, but remained in striking distance of the 30-year high of $3,510.

BUY

Tobin Gorey, soft commodities strategist with J.P. Morgan, said he saw potential upside in cocoa futures prices, driven by re-stocking combined with bullish market fundamentals.

"We think that prices will go to higher levels than now -- perhaps a couple of hundred dollars/tonne on the ICE," he said.

Romain Lathiere, fund manager with Diapason Commodities Management, predicted further upside in cocoa prices early in 2010 as the funds continued to pile into the commodity.

"The two bullish softs that we see in the next few weeks are coffee and cocoa," he said.

He said the insufficient investment in cocoa economies in West Africa in recent years augured for production shortfalls.

Eric Sivry, director and head of cocoa brokerage at Fortis Bank Nederland, said he believed a wall of investment money could pump into cocoa if macro-economic conditions were right.

"The specs are well in the money and there is potential for them to pour even more money in this relatively small market...It is a game of nerves between industry and specs, and the specs have the upper hand," he said.

Sivry said he believed London cocoa futures and ICE futures could reach 3,000 pounds per tonne and $4,000 per tonne respectively by the end of Q1 2010.

The investment fund community is becoming increasingly focused on cocoa, said Hussein Allidina, head of commodity research at Morgan Stanley in New York.

"Many hedge funds are getting involved and see upside opportunity," he said. Kona Haque, commodity strategist with Macquarie Bank, said ICE futures were likely to target $3,500 per tonne in January, particularly if evidence emerges that the West African main crop output starts tailing off.

"While data for cocoa arrivals from Ivory Coast still remain up in year-on-year terms so far, the percentage increases seem to be falling each week, recently," she said.

SELL

Doug Whitehead, analyst with Rabobank, said he believed cocoa looked over-bought and risked a sell-off soon to meet industry demand at below present price levels.

"I'd be a seller at current prices," he said. "The industry in Europe has orders below the market at the moment."

Whitehead said a key question was the direction of the dollar and pound, which would affect investor flows into cocoa.

He said he believed London cocoa could fall to 2,100 pounds per tonne and ICE futures to $3,200.

Sivry said that although the fundamental picture was strong, downside price risks could not be ignored.

"If consumption disappoints, that could impact," he said. (Reporting by David Brough; editing by Anthony Barker)

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