* Wynn Macau shares likely to trade sideways in HK debut
* Recent weak listings, high IPO price to weigh
* Good stock for strong growth prospects-analysts
By Sui-Lee Wee
HONG KONG, Oct 7 (Reuters) - Investors betting on Wynn Macau's stock when it debuts in Hong Kong on Friday may need a little luck, as recent lukewarm listings and a relatively high IPO price could limit the upside and even send shares down.
IPO markets globally have been recovering after a near year-long freeze prompted by the financial crisis. Santander Brasil and Verisk Analytics raised nearly $10 billion between them on Tuesday.
Asia has led the recovery in IPOs with many large offerings primarily in Hong Kong and China in recent months. But already the boom has begun to show signs of fading on concerns of oversupply, rich pricings and an uncertain economic outlook.
A weak debut for Wynn Macau's $1.63 billion listing, likely to be the world's sixth-largest IPO this year, could bode ill for gambling rival Las Vegas Sands, which plans to raise billions of dollars in a similar Hong Kong offer this year, analysts say.
Both offerings would mark a major win for Hong Kong, bringing two global marquees to what is otherwise a regional market.
Even a flat opening day for Wynn Macau would be a positive sign for Sands and push it to move ahead with its plans to list.
"It's too expensive and it doesn't give enough room for people to make money, not in this current environment," said Francis Lun, general manager at Fulbright Securities, referring to the IPO of Wynn Macau.
Shares of the Asia unit of Wynn Resorts could fall slightly below their IPO price or remain flat on their debut, according to a Reuters poll of five traders.
The company priced its IPO at the top of its indicated range at HK$10.08 a share..
Since opening its first Macau property three years ago, Wynn has nearly doubled its casino space there, and now offers 205,000 square feet of slot machines, baccarat, roulette and other table games, up from an original 110,000 square feet.
Lun said many recent listings had seen weak performances, as investors burn out on a flood of new IPOs coming to market after a one-year hiatus during the global financial crisis.
The dismal September debut of Metallurgical Corp of China has weighed heavily on the market. China Resources Cement became the latest lacklustre debutant on Tuesday, down 4 percent from its IPO price..
Traders said there was more scope for Wynn Macau shares to fall due to its steep valuations.
Wynn Macau trades around 16 times its 2010 enterprise value to EBITDA, versus 7.5 times for gambling tycoon Stanley Ho's flagship SJM Holdings', according to Credit Suisse.
M
ACAU "PURE PLAY"
But traders also see firm demand for the Wynn Macau stock over the longer term, as it will give investors a rare chance to buy a premier name in the world's biggest gambling market.
Sources said the IPO is already several times covered, with one saying the institutional portion was more than 10 times over-subscribed..
Wynn, which had a 16.4 percent market share of Macau in 2008, is one of a handful of gambling "pure plays" in Macau, alongside Melco Crown Entertainment, Galaxy Entertainment Group and SJM Holdings..
"I do think it's one of those more unique stocks," said Jackson Wong, investment manager at Tanrich Securities. "They priced (it) pretty high, so if it comes down to a more reasonable P/E (price-earnings) comparable to other gambling stocks, that would be a stock to hold and buy."
Gambling revenues in Macau hit a new high of $1.4 billion in August, signalling a faster-than-expected recovery in the only place in China where gambling is legal..
Analysts said September figures will likely be stronger, after China eased restrictions on its citizens travelling from Guangdong province to Macau..
"How can you not be more excited about the growth prospects in Macau when every month is a record month for gaming revenues?" said Janet Brashear, analyst with Sanford Bernstein in New York. (Additional reporting by Jun Ebias, Editing by Doug Young and Anshuman Daga)