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French Oct flash PMIs point to stronger recovery

Published 10/23/2009, 03:00 AM
Updated 10/23/2009, 03:03 AM
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By Anna Willard

PARIS, Oct 23 (Reuters) - Activity in the French private sector expanded at its fastest pace in 35 months in October, a key survey showed on Friday, in a sign that the fourth quarter got off to a good start.

The Markit/CDAF flash composite purchasing managers' index (PMI), which combines data from both the manufacturing and services sectors, rose to 58.4 from 54.8 in September.

It was the third consecutive month that the index has remained above the 50 mark separating growth from contraction.

"France really is seeing a surge in growth which seems to be broad based across manufacturing, services, businesses and the consumer," said Markit economist Chris Williamson.

The flash factory PMI rose to 55.3, also the highest in 35 months, after a final reading of 53.0 in September. The consensus forecast in a Reuters poll of economists had called for a more modest rise to 53.4.

The flash services PMI climbed to 57.8, a 20 month high, after 53.2 in September.

Growth of new business supported a steep rise in output with new orders in the private sector coming in at their fastest pace since November 2007.

The report backs other recent data pointing to more optimism in the euro zone's second largest economy and showing that the fourth quarter may have had a healthy start.

Business confidence rose to its highest level in a year in October, official data showed on Thursday.

"We're at a level now that is consistent with GDP (gross domestic product growth) of about a 0.6 percent quarterly rate," Williamson said of the PMI survey.

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The French economy grew a surprise 0.3 percent in the second quarter and Economy Minister Christine Lagarde said on Tuesday the third quarter would be better than previous ones.

The median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists found that the economy would grow 0.4 percent in the third quarter and 0.3 percent in the fourth.

Williamson said the PMI survey indicated that the forecast for the final three months of the year was too pessimistic.

Some companies are also starting to do better.

French car parts maker Valeo raised its production forecast for the second half this week after posting third-quarter net income of 4 million euros, after three consecutive quarterly losses.

The head of advertising group Publicis, Maurice Levy, told Reuters on Wednesday the advertising market would continue to improve slowly and progressively after hitting a trough at the end of June. (Editing by Toby Chopra)

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