Dollar clings to gains with central banks in focus

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A woman counts Japanese 10,000 yen notes in Tokyo, in this February 28, 2013 picture illustration. REUTERS/Shohei Miyano/Illustration

By Laura Matthews

New York (Reuters) - The dollar clung to gains against the euro on Monday after recent economic data showed a stronger U.S. economy and a slowing euro zone as traders look beyond a trio of central bank meetings this week for clues to the outlook for monetary policy.

A closely-watched purchasing managers' survey showed that U.S. business activity slowed to a five-month low in July, dragged down by decelerating service sector growth, but the data was better than similar surveys out of Europe. Falling U.S. input prices and slower hiring indicated the Federal Reserve could be making progress on important fronts in its bid to reduce inflation.

"When you survey the global picture, there are more reasons to be optimistic about the U.S. than almost anywhere else, which translate to the dollar," said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive in Toronto. "The U.S. economy really is the best of a mediocre bunch."

The euro was down 0.49% at $1.1069 while sterling was last trading at $1.2823, down 0.25% on the day, kicking off a busy week for central bank meetings with investors expecting rate hikes in Europe and the United States.

The dollar index rose 0.247% to 101.330, while futures expect the Fed's overnight rate will rise to 5.43% in November and stay above 5% until June 2024..

The Japanese yen strengthened 0.24% versus the greenback to 141.47 per dollar.

The Fed concludes a meeting on Wednesday, followed by the European Central Bank (ECB) a day later and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) on Friday, as well as earnings from many heavyweight companies.

Investors expect both the ECB and Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points and the focus in both cases is on the signals they send around their September meetings. Softening inflation gauges might allow the Fed room to hint at a pause.

"The Fed probably won't raise rates again at its September meeting after this week's hike, but with the U.S. economy in better shape for now, the euro is bearing the brunt of the broad dollar strength," said John Velis, head of Americas macro strategy at BNY Mellon (NYSE:BK) Markets in New York.

The BOJ is the most likely of the three central banks to throw up a market-moving surprise, traders say, with a tweak to its yield curve control policy seen as a possibility.

Last Friday the Japanese currency dived to as weak as 141.92 per dollar, also sliding on crosses, following a Reuters report that the BOJ was leaning towards keeping its yield curve control policy unchanged, though volatility gauges have spiked as the meeting looms.

"There's a deep sense of unease around what might come next from the Bank of Japan," said ForexLive's Button.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin last fell 2.72% to $29,069.21. Ethereum last fell 2.45% to $1,848.12.

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Currency bid prices at 2:41PM (1841 GMT)

Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid

Previous Change

Session

Dollar index

101.3300 101.0900 +0.25% -2.087% +101.4100 +100.8800

Euro/Dollar

$1.1071 $1.1124 -0.47% +3.33% +$1.1147 +$1.1065

Dollar/Yen

141.4700 141.8500 -0.26% +7.91% +141.8050 +140.7500

Euro/Yen

156.63 157.76 -0.72% +11.64% +157.7800 +156.2500

Dollar/Swiss

0.8683 0.8660 +0.26% -6.11% +0.8688 +0.8640

Sterling/Dollar

$1.2825 $1.2852 -0.21% +6.05% +$1.2883 +$1.2799

Dollar/Canadian

1.3166 1.3224 -0.44% -2.83% +1.3229 +1.3152

Aussie/Dollar

$0.6742 $0.6732 +0.19% -1.06% +$0.6756 +$0.6715

Euro/Swiss

0.9611 0.9629 -0.19% -2.87% +0.9646 +0.9589

Euro/Sterling

0.8630 0.8652 -0.25% -2.42% +0.8659 +0.8620

NZ

Dollar/Dollar $0.6198 $0.6166 +0.63% -2.28% +$0.6215 +$0.6158

Dollar/Norway

10.0600 10.0650 +0.06% +2.62% +10.1120 +10.0600

Euro/Norway

11.1425 11.1944 -0.46% +6.18% +11.2370 +11.1256

Dollar/Sweden

10.4186 10.3865 -0.12% +0.10% +10.4341 +10.3668

Euro/Sweden

11.5300 11.5437 -0.12% +3.41% +11.5946 +11.5110