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Top 5 things to watch in markets in the week ahead

Published Nov 19, 2023 05:41AM ET
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Investing.com -- In the holiday-shortened week ahead investors will be looking to the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting for any fresh insights on the future path of interest rates. Retailers are preparing for what they hope will be another bumper holiday shopping season. Nvidia is the last megacap company to report earnings and oil prices look set to remain volatile. Here’s what you need to know to start your week.

  1. Fed minutes

The Fed is to publish the minutes of its Oct. 31-Nov. 1 meeting on Tuesday, a day earlier than usual, due to this week’s Thanksgiving holiday.

Recent indications that inflation is cooling have fueled hopes that the U.S. central bank is done with hiking rates and investors will be combing through the minutes for clues on where policymakers are leaning.

On Friday Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr said he believes the Fed is at or near the peak of interest rate hikes, but San Francisco Fed chief Mary Daly and Boston Fed President Susan Collins highlighted the need for more evidence of cooling inflation.

On the economic data front, figures on existing home sales are due out on Tuesday, followed a day later by the weekly government figures on initial jobless claims and October data on durable goods orders.

  1. Black Friday

U.S. retailers are gearing up for Black Friday, marking the start of the crucial holiday shopping season that follows Thanksgiving at a time when investors are questioning whether the consumer-driven U.S. economy can remain resilient.

This year's Black Friday comes against a backdrop of elevated interest rates and inflation that, while easing, remains above the Fed's 2% target.

Data last week showed that U.S. retail sales fell for the first time in seven months in October, pointing to slowing demand, although the decline was smaller than expected.

Retailers have already warned that this year's holiday season will be less robust than in previous years. Walmart (NYSE:WMT) said Thursday that consumers are being more cautious with spending as the holiday season gets underway, even as the largest U.S. retailer raised its forecast for sales and profit for the year.

  1. Equities optimism

Investor optimism on equities has grown over the last few weeks, with markets rebounding from a months-long drop that ran from August through much of October. Treasury yields, whose steady rise over the last few months had weighed on stocks, have rapidly retreated amid hopes the Fed is finished raising interest rates.

Last week saw the S&P 500, the Nasdaq and the Dow rack up their third straight week of gains. For the S&P and the Dow it was the longest weekly winning streak since July. For the Nasdaq it was the longest weekly advance since June.

This week investors will be turning their attention on chip company Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), which releases its latest earnings report on Tuesday. It is the last of the results in the earnings season from the Magnificent Seven megacap companies, whose massive share gains this year have led equity indexes higher.      

  1. Oil prices

Oil prices jumped more than 4% on Friday, rebounding from a four-month low hit in the previous session, as investors who had taken short positions took profits and while U.S. sanctions on some Russian oil shippers lent support.

Still, both the Brent and crude oil benchmarks ended the week more than 1% lower, their fourth straight weekly decline, mostly weighed down by a rise in U.S. crude inventories and sustained record high production.

China's deepening property crisis and slowing industrial growth also weighed.

With Brent below $80, many analysts expect the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies to extend output cuts into 2024 when the group meets later this month.

  1. Eurozone data

The Eurozone is to publish purchasing manager indexes data for November on Thursday, with economists not expecting any meaningful pickup in activity. The bloc is also to release data on consumer confidence on Wednesday and the closely watched German Ifo business climate index is due out on Friday.

The European Central Bank is to publish its latest financial stability review on Wednesday, followed a day later by the minutes of its October policy meeting.

ECB President Christine Lagarde is to make an appearance in Berlin on Tuesday and will speak again at an event in Frankfurt on Friday, while several other ECB officials are also due to make appearances during the week.

--Reuters contributed to this report

Top 5 things to watch in markets in the week ahead
 

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Comments (8)
Jan Vissers
Jan Vissers Nov 20, 2023 2:00AM ET
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We are watching in real time. The beginning of the end of the central planners.
Ehsanullah Faizi
Ehsanullah Faizi Nov 19, 2023 12:27PM ET
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What about gold?
Mohammed Shihab AB
Mohammed Shihab AB Nov 19, 2023 12:25PM ET
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Where is Barani’s weekly report ?
Ringki Nababan
Ringki Nababan Nov 19, 2023 12:25PM ET
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🤣🤣👍👍
Krish Puthamber
Krish Puthamber Nov 19, 2023 11:59AM ET
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thanks
Danielle Tancinco
Danielle Tancinco Nov 19, 2023 11:33AM ET
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help me to invest
Mr BullBear
Mr BullBear Nov 19, 2023 11:33AM ET
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Buy natural gas
Chris Tiernan
Chris Tiernan Nov 19, 2023 10:37AM ET
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Federal Hedge on Oil
AW AFRIDI
AW AFRIDI Nov 19, 2023 10:05AM ET
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100% surety profit to any user who want to invest
Brad Albright
Brad Albright Nov 19, 2023 10:05AM ET
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Is that all?
lili M
lili M Nov 19, 2023 8:19AM ET
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The price if food , all necessities up why fed doesnt increase rate & finish it ? The inflation still is high
rodboi Jones
rodboi Jones Nov 19, 2023 8:19AM ET
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yes still very high, food prices are through the roof nearly.
Bahadır Güler
Bahadır Güler Nov 19, 2023 8:19AM ET
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because people will loose their jobs if FED listens to you...
Nelson Manning
Nelson Manning Nov 19, 2023 8:19AM ET
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raise rates and get this bullshit over with...if not this will go on for years
 
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