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Take Five: Dark December

EconomyNov 27, 2020 12:45PM ET
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2/2 © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A street sign for Wall Street is seen outside the New York Stock Exchange in Manhattan, New York City 2/2

1/MORE PITFALLS

It has been a year many would prefer to forget and a month of 2020 still remains -- one replete with events that could trip up markets. Here they are:

Dec. 1: A month before the UK-EU transition deal ends.

Dec. 8: Deadline to complete U.S. state-level vote recounts and court contests over the election.

Dec. 10: European Central Bank meets and should increase emergency stimulus.

Dec. 11: U.S. government funding lapses unless lawmakers agree a 12-bill spending package.

Dec. 10-11: EU council meeting. Issues are Brexit and the risk that Poland and Hungary will scupper an EU stimulus spending plan.

Dec. 14: The U.S. electoral college votes, with the risk that some "faithless" electors break the rule requiring them to vote in line with the popular vote.

Dec. 15-16 - U.S. Federal Reserve meets. Will it expand bond-buying or signal a yield cap?

Dec. 28: European Parliament could vote on any Brexit deal.

Graphic: Sterling rollercoaster https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/bdwvklmajpm/gbp.PNG

2/HARD WORK

An explosion in new COVID-19 infections and business restrictions have been undermining the U.S. labour market recovery so Friday's November payrolls figures will be closely watched.

Last month saw 638,000 new jobs amid signs the economy was healing from the pandemic-induced downturn. But it was the smallest gain since the jobs recovery started in May and left employment 10.1 million below its February peak.

November is likely to be the seventh straight month of jobs gains, but expectations are that only 520,000 jobs were added.

-U.S. weekly jobless claims rise as COVID-19 infections surge

-U.S. consumer spending rises; income falls in October

Graphic: U.S. Non-farm payrolls https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/dgkplakbdvb/Pasted%20image%201606237053920.png

3/ROLLOVER OPEC

OPEC and its allies had been due to raise oil output by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) from January to ease the record supply cuts that were implemented as crude prices slumped earlier in 2020.

But when the group -- known as OPEC+ -- meets on Nov. 30-Dec. 1, it is expected to delay those output increase plans by at least three months.

While crude futures have rallied to eight-month highs near $50 a barrel, OPEC+ is reportedly still considering delaying the increase because rising Libyan production and continued restrictions on movement are seen capping energy prices.

Sources tell Reuters a rollover of current 7.7 million bpd curbs until end-Q1 has support within the group. Analysts seem to agree -- most reckon a rollover of at least three months is necessary to bring down high oil inventory levels.

-OPEC+ sees oil cut extension curbing 2021 rise in oil stocks, document shows

Graphic: OPEC Demand Forecast https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/nmovadwkgpa/OPEC%20Demand%20forecast.PNG

4/OPULENCE IN JAPAN

Japanese trend-setters are protecting themselves against COVID-19 with diamond and pearl-studded masks. Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga's ruling party will spend big too, draft budget plans due to be presented to parliament show.

The draft contains plans for green investment and extended subsidies for households and businesses.

Upcoming data will show what impact previous stimulus packages of 234 trillion yen had. We could see an expansion in factory output and possibly the first signs of retail sales growth.

- Japan's ruling party to propose big spending on green investment – draft

- POLL-Japan factory output, retail sales seen up, virus resurgence clouds outlook

Graphic: Japan GDP & debt https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/xegpbqgklvq/Pasted%20image%201606456059041.png

5/ NO RELIEF

Euro zone consumer prices are likely to have fallen further in November -- a 0.3% year-on-year drop is expected from Tuesday's "flash" reading.

The numbers won't surprise the ECB, which expects inflation to average -0.2% year-on-year in Q4. But a fourth straight month of negative price growth may not sit well -- ECB chief economist Philip Lane warned recently against tolerating low inflation.

And while a COVID-19 vaccine may lift growth prospects, it may not do much for inflation -- inflation-adjusted bond yields remain deeply negative. The data will only reinforce the need for more stimulus and that will come in December, with the ECB seen expanding bond-buying and cheap loans for banks.

- ECB's Lane warns against tolerating low inflation as more stimulus looms

Graphic: No inflation relief for the ECB https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/jbyvrearlpe/themeinflation2711.PNG

 

Take Five: Dark December
 

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Comments (3)
Zack Harding
Zack Harding Nov 28, 2020 10:57AM ET
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1) Biden won a record low 16.7% of counties in the US but had the most votes of any presidential candidate ever. 10 million more than Obama.2) Voter turnout for every election in the past 100 years fell within 2 standard deviations but 2020 was above 3 standard deviations. This should happen roughly 1 in every 2,666 elections and is 99.7% indicative of voter fraud.3) Republicans won all 27 “contested” House seats but lost the presidency? The last election where that happened with even 10 seats was the heavily fraud riddled election of 1960.4) The winner has always carried 15 or more of the 17 Bellwether counties but Biden won just 1 of them5) Trump had the highest % of non-white votes of any Republican in history.6) Biden was down more than 10% in NY but up huge in very specific large cities –but only in the cities in battleground states.7) 450,000+ ballots in battleground cities had a vote for only Biden. No down ballot votes cast, no independents, green party or write in candid
Zack Harding
Zack Harding Nov 28, 2020 10:05AM ET
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Twitter labeling lawsuit filings as potentially harmful to read for all the left snowflakes lol. Cant make this stiff up, Twitter sensoring real court documents.
Zack Harding
Zack Harding Nov 28, 2020 10:03AM ET
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https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pa-poll-watcher-a-navy-vet-alleges-missing-usb-cards-up-to-120000-questionable-votes
Zack Harding
Zack Harding Nov 28, 2020 10:03AM ET
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All...paste the link, listen to the testimony...then compare, we had an impeachment on a whistleblower who we were not allowed to see or hear from ? Lol.
Dave Coon
Dave Coon Nov 28, 2020 10:03AM ET
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Wow did you waste your time
 
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