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Markets to fall further as econ fundamentals worse than 2007, says GMO's Grantham

Economy Sep 08, 2022 12:00AM ET
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By Lisa Pauline Mattackal

(Reuters) - Financial markets should brace for further pain, with global economic health at its most precarious level in years, due to stubborn inflation, hawkish central banks and geopolitical tensions, veteran investor Jeremy Grantham said late Wednesday.

"This is a more dangerous looking moment in global economics than even the madness of the housing bubble of 2007," Grantham, co-founder and chief strategist of asset manager GMO, told the Reuters Global Markets Forum (GMF).

Pockets of highly overvalued assets, which Grantham has termed "superbubbles," peaked earlier last year, he said.

Markets will now have to cope with valuations of "hyper-inflated" growth stocks collapsing, inflation and potential turmoil in the global housing markets, as rising interest rates put pressure on homeowners, he said.

"The deterioration in fundamentals on a global basis looks absolutely shocking."

World stocks have tumbled 20% since the start of the year, while the growth-heavy Nasdaq Composite has dropped 24%.

Economic and market turmoil will likely test global central banks' resolve to combat inflation through monetary policy tightening, Gratham said.

"(Central banks) will be spooked, they'll do what they can, maybe."

Based on its current trendline, Grantham thinks the S&P 500 could be trading around 3,000 points in a year from its current 3,979.87, but notes it could easily head "decently lower."

Inflationary pressures are likely to be persistent, Grantham said, owing to climate change-related economic disruptions, a shrinking global workforce and limited commodity resources.

That will put further pressure on equity returns, he noted.

"People forget to adjust the S&P for inflation ... your assets are worth 9% because of inflation in the last year."

"That makes a marginal bear market a fairly serious bear market," Grantham said.

(Join GMF, a chat room hosted on Refinitiv Messenger: https://refini.tv/33uoFoQ)

Markets to fall further as econ fundamentals worse than 2007, says GMO's Grantham
 

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Comments (5)
Joe Rizzuto
Joe Rizzuto Sep 08, 2022 6:46AM ET
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he has been saying the same thing for years... yet no mention of the 2 most important geopolitical reasons today to worry about a collapse in global economies... 1. russias overt willingness of war to promote it's self interest and 2. the utter incompetency of the u.s. biden administration.
Samer Diab
Samer Diab Sep 08, 2022 5:56AM ET
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Jeremy Grantham keeps saying markets will fall while he didn't sell out of any stocks lol
ia ai
ia ai Sep 08, 2022 3:44AM ET
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These articles don`t age well. Bookmark it and visit it on new year`s eve, for a good laugh.
Bryan Ojeda
Bryan Ojeda Sep 08, 2022 3:44AM ET
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yeah we'll laugh while S&P is at 2700
ia ai
ia ai Sep 08, 2022 3:33AM ET
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Do the opposite of whatever these "veteran investors" tell you, and you are on a winning streak à la Brandon Lang fade. Nobody knows where the S&P will be in a week from now, let alone in a month.
Rubbing Hands
Rubbing Hands Sep 08, 2022 1:10AM ET
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this guys sounds like a real winner, lol
 
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