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Goldman Sees Relief Bill at $1.5 Trillion, Boosts GDP Estimate

Published 02/08/2021, 11:55 AM
Updated 02/08/2021, 12:18 PM
© Bloomberg. The Goldman Sachs & Co. logo is displayed at the company's booth on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., on Friday, July 19, 2013. U.S. stocks fell after benchmark equities gauges rose to records yesterday, after disappointing earnings from Google Inc. and Microsoft Corp. overshadowed better-than-forecast results from General Electric Co. Photographer: Bloomberg/Bloomberg

(Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS). economists boosted their forecast for the eventual bill that Congress enacts in the wake of President Joe Biden’s call for $1.9 trillion in Covid-19 relief spending, and lifted their projection for U.S. economic growth.

Goldman chief economist Jan Hatzius and his colleagues said that additional fiscal measures are likely to be valued at $1.5 trillion, after previously estimating $1.1 trillion. They also bumped their GDP forecast for the second quarter to 11%. On an annual basis, they increased their forecasts for 2021 and 2022 growth by 0.2 percentage points each, to 6.8% and 4.5%, respectively.

“While the extra $400 billion in stimulus we assume is equivalent to nearly 2% of GDP, we expect that much of this spending will take several quarters to spend out and therefore has more limited implications for near-term growth,” the economists wrote in a note Monday.

The team made the changes following the passage of a budget resolution in both the House and Senate on Friday -- clearing the path for the pandemic-relief package to proceed without Republican support in Congress.

©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

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