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Economic Calendar - Top 5 Things to Watch This Week

EconomyApr 26, 2020 06:53AM ET
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© Reuters.

By Noreen Burke

Investing.com - The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are all set to hold policy meetings this week after the coronavirus induced global economic crisis prompted them to implement aggressive monetary easing measures. Investors will be on the alert for indications that policymakers may have to do yet more to shield economies from the ongoing economic fallout. First quarter GDP data from the U.S. and the Euro Zone will be the economic data to watch, closely followed by U.S. jobless claims data. Oil prices will also be in focus after U.S. crude plunged into negative territory last week for the first time ever. Here is what you need to know to start your week.

  1. Fed meeting

The Fed will hold its first scheduled monetary policy meeting since January on Tuesday and Wednesday. But policymakers have met at several unscheduled meetings since then, slashing rates to almost zero, restarting bond purchases and rolling out an unprecedented range of programs to ease credit conditions. The measures have seen the Fed’s balance sheet expand to a record $6.42 trillion.

While the meeting is expected to be less dramatic than the emergency one in March, investors expect to get more details on the Fed's special lending programs, its asset-purchase program and the forward guidance on the target range for the federal funds rate, analysts said.

Investors will also be looking for indications from the Fed about how severe it thinks the recession may be and what is its outlook for economic recovery.

  1. ECB meeting

The ECB is set to spend just over a trillion euros on asset purchases this year alone, has eased its rules on what it can buy and when, and has ramped up supportive measures for banks.

But pressure on the ECB to step up its monetary easing program is only likely to increase as European Union leaders struggle to agree on fiscal measures to help the continent recover from the pandemic. ECB President Christine Lagarde warned EU leaders last week that the euro-area economy could shrink as much as 15% this year.

Analysts estimate that at the current daily pace, the ECB's 750 billion euros of emergency bond purchases will be exhausted by October. Some say the ECB will be left with no option but to top up its scheme by a further 500 billion euros soon -- perhaps as early as Thursday.

Meanwhile the BOJ is set to kick off its meeting on Monday with analysts expecting that policymakers could scrap their bond-buying target as they take more aggressive action to combat the widening fallout of the health crisis.

  1. U.S. GDP, jobless claims data

First quarter GDP data will be the headline figure to watch on the U.S. economic calendar this week. Economic activity ground to a halt in March, after a strong January and February, with the economy shedding around 27 million jobs in five weeks.

“We look for the economy to have contracted 6% annualized in Q1 with much worse to come in 2Q. We look for a 40% annualized fall in output between March and June even if other U.S. states follow the lead of Georgia, Tennessee, Florida and South Carolina and start re-opening their economies in the next two to four weeks”, analysts at ING said.

The other closely watched report will of course be initial jobless claims.

“We are hoping that after three consecutive declines in jobless claims we will see a much sharper fall this week given some states are starting to re-open” ING analysts said.

  1. Bumper week for Euro Zone data

This week brings data on first quarter GDP, unemployment and inflation for the euro area. The biggest question is how large the contraction in GDP will be after lockdowns were put in place across the bloc since at least the last two weeks of March.

Unemployment figures for March will show how much layoffs contributed to an increase in the jobless rate, while inflation data for April will be difficult to parse with most retailers except for grocery stores closed.

  1. Oil price turmoil set to continue?

Price action this week will be a test of whether the oil market can regain equilibrium after crude, which had never dropped below $10 a barrel in its nearly 40-year history, plunged to minus $38 a barrel last Monday.

Energy traders have been spooked by the fact that oil storage facilities are nearly full amid a growing glut in a market already hit by collapsing demand due to the coronavirus pandemic.

The volume of futures contracts still open for delivery in June has fallen by the equivalent of 217 million barrels, more than a third, since last Monday, Reuters reported.

Cheaper oil could help promote the recovery when coronavirus lockdowns finally end. Cheap oil lowers energy, transport and manufacturing costs, puts money in consumers' pockets and saves oil-importing countries cash, too, which can then be spent on more useful things.

--Reuters contributed to this report

Economic Calendar - Top 5 Things to Watch This Week
 

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Comments (19)
Belinda Davenport
Belinda Davenport Apr 27, 2020 7:01AM ET
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Diamond Off Shore (DO) just declared Chapter 11 Bankruptcy.Great for the day trader if it falls hard close to a few cents. It could be like Enron in November 28th 2001 and Pam Am in the late 1980's.
Midway Eholdings
Midway Eholdings Apr 26, 2020 7:51PM ET
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Rally till things seem better, break after good news, new highs after sell off
Bulls MakeMore
Bulls MakeMore Apr 26, 2020 6:53PM ET
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This is the most challenging market I've seen, and I started investing (unfortunately!) in 1999 ... also, half of all experts/analysts are bullish as can be, and the other half bearish...big money seems mostly bullish, interestingly
HJ Index
HJ Index Apr 26, 2020 6:35PM ET
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if look at DOW index and its volume of trade, it is highly likely we will see another leg down starting this or next week. it should retest 20000-18000. if broken, 15000-12000, the extreme. just my personal view.
Paraditha Lalu
Paraditha Lalu Apr 26, 2020 1:30PM ET
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Hi how about Gold it will go up or fall down? Thx
Gaudence Kessy
Gaudence Kessy Apr 26, 2020 1:30PM ET
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Gold, go long due to USD weakness
Proble Matic
Proble Matic Apr 26, 2020 1:04PM ET
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If only we did have a free market and capitalism wasn't just a word.
Brian Helmuth
Brian Helmuth Apr 26, 2020 1:04PM ET
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seriously. none of this is about business developments anymore or rarely so. it seems to be all about central bank action
ALLAIL JAMAL
ALLAIL JAMAL Apr 26, 2020 12:27PM ET
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they just only hope sentiment....
רועי לוין
רועי לוין Apr 26, 2020 12:03PM ET
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Guys do you think that the market will go up tomorrow?
Mark Rickert
Mark Rickert Apr 26, 2020 12:03PM ET
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I think Tuesday it might go down. This is why. I'm not an expert here. But it looks like the GDP report comes out Tuesday. The forecast is negative 4%. (Typically the forecast and the actual are the same, so you can count on it). in March the GDP report showed -2.1 %.... this report is going to show -4%. so my question is when the breaking news says GDP - 4%!!! Will the Market freak out, react in a bad way? I'm thinking probably so...
רועי לוין
רועי לוין Apr 26, 2020 12:03PM ET
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Mark Rickert thank you very much mark
xolani alex
xolani alex Apr 26, 2020 12:03PM ET
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another thing to remember Mark is that no one will be surprised by a negetive GDP, so the whole thing might be priced in. that's what I think.
Aravind Tallam
LiveKingSize Apr 26, 2020 12:03PM ET
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xolani alex  however negative the data is, FED will step in with their quotes "Whatever it takes" and "Unlimited QE" to boost up the market
Abdul Mannan
Abdul Mannan Apr 26, 2020 11:44AM ET
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don't know to understand this is just story not gaven any idea about future.
Nick Gee
Nick Gee Apr 26, 2020 11:14AM ET
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These guys don't even know how things work. Unemployment isn't dropped and reported the first hour you go back to work.... That's atleast 2 weeks away
Junk Man
Junk_Man Apr 26, 2020 11:08AM ET
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Risk will continue to be on the downside.  Those states that are opening up are at risk of increased Virus cases.  If it turns out that infections did not go up, that would be a positive for the markets.  But we wont know until 10-14 days later.
Umar Farooq Ch
Umar Farooq Ch Apr 26, 2020 10:50AM ET
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What's about Nasdaq 100 .it will go up or down
Nouman Shehzad
Nouman Shehzad Apr 26, 2020 10:42AM ET
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will oil price fall again in upcoming week.? what's your analysis .? my analysis say that it will touch 10$ or 12$
FOREX TRADER FXCM
FOREX TRADER FXCM Apr 26, 2020 10:27AM ET
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eur/usd trading at 1.08 -1.06 range to 2 month
anza ndou
anza ndou Apr 26, 2020 10:19AM ET
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So what happens to the oil this week, should we expect another drop in prices?
Justin Goomo
Justin Goomo Apr 26, 2020 10:19AM ET
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Goog or bad , fed keeps pumping using tax payers money,
Dj Abs
Dj Abs Apr 26, 2020 10:19AM ET
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its not yours if you give it someone else. Hahh *wink
Adrian White
Adrian White Apr 26, 2020 10:19AM ET
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Incorrect, Justin. The Fed doesn't collect any tax revenue. They just print money, literally creating it out of thin air. It's the money that Congress allocates that is tax prayers' money.
Vishal Agarwal
Vishal Agarwal Apr 26, 2020 10:19AM ET
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hi everyone...can u please advise manganese ore status in usa...I checked several sites but could not find anything...I have purchased shares of MOIL which produces manganese... please advise..
Silverbug 19
Silverbug 19 Apr 26, 2020 10:12AM ET
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Gold $50000
Sam West
SamWest Apr 26, 2020 10:12AM ET
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maybe more
Hussein Soliman
Hussein Soliman Apr 26, 2020 10:12AM ET
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Hahaha
Yousef Dewan
Yousef Dewan Apr 26, 2020 10:04AM ET
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seriously? what about the giant companies earnings reports?
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Shiva Gopal
Shiva Gopal Apr 26, 2020 10:04AM ET
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I Agree..Earnings will play a major role this week.
Jose Reyes
Jose Reyes Apr 26, 2020 10:04AM ET
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I agree. I will trade around Alphabet and Amazon's earnings.
James Adams
James Adams Apr 26, 2020 10:04AM ET
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don't think we will see much until q2. companies will be misleading polishing a ****for the market
keano giggsy
keano giggsy Apr 26, 2020 10:04AM ET
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After mkt closed.. How ya gg to trade it
Aravind Tallam
LiveKingSize Apr 26, 2020 10:04AM ET
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Jose Reyes  I think the Forecast of these companies in the second quarter is more important than the earnings in their first quarter....The lockdown only started in March so earnings are not greatly affected
 
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