By Geoffrey Smith
Investing.com – China’s Covid case count skyrocketed toward levels last seen in April, with Guangzhou and Chongqing the new hotspots. The Fed and the ECB are set for interest rate hikes of only 50 basis points at their next meetings, officials indicate. Zoom Video slides in premarket after giving some disappointing guidance for the current quarter. Troubled crypto brokerage Genesis is struggling to bridge a $1 billion liquidity shortfall, and oil whipsaws as two big Gulf producers pooh-pooh the idea of an output increase. Here’s what you need to know in financial markets on Tuesday, 22nd November.
1. China’s Covid woes deepen
China’s Covid-19 case count surged back toward the levels last seen in April during the outbreak in Shanghai, making the prospect of a relaxation of its Zero Covid policy ever more remote.
The number of confirmed cases nationwide hit 28,000, with the major manufacturing hubs of Guangzhou in the south and Chongqing in central China being the two worst-hit cities.
Analysts at Nomura now estimate that around one-fifth of the Chinese economy is now operating under some kind of Covid-related restriction, even if that does not always mean a strict lockdown. The economic impact of actual restrictive measures is likely to be amplified by personal choices made by consumers to avoid catching the disease, analysts warn. That spells further trouble for the consumer sector, especially the entertainment and hospitality industries.
2. In the U.S. and the Eurozone - 50 is the new 75
Loretta Mester and Mary Daly joined the list of Federal Reserve officials indicating that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at a slower rate in future, while simultaneously warning that the central bank still isn’t done hiking.
“I don’t think we’re anywhere near to stopping,” newswires quoted Cleveland Fed President Mester as saying, adding that market expectations of a peak around 5% in the fed funds rate wasn’t far off.
The San Francisco Fed President was notably clear about the risks of the Fed tightening policy too much, amid increased signs that more and more of the economy is slowing down. Kansas City’s Esther George and St. Louis’ James Bullard are due to speak later.
In Europe too, German central bank head Joachim Nagel indicated that he would be satisfied with a hike of only 50 basis points at the ECB’s next meeting, saying such a step would still be “substantial”. Nagel also said he wants the ECB to start “quantitative tightening” early in the new year.
3. Stocks set to edge higher; Zoom slips on weak guidance
U.S. stock markets are set to open modestly higher later, showing signs of slowing down already ahead of the Thanksgiving Day holiday.
By 06:25 ET (11:25 GMT), Dow Jones futures were up 41 points, or 0.1%, while S&P 500 futures were up 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures were up by a similar amount.
The news out of China continues to act as a modest drag on sentiment, while Zoom Video's (NASDAQ:ZM) weak guidance for the fourth quarter was another reminder of the post-pandemic bust in some tech stocks still having further to run.
Medtronic (NYSE:MDT), Best Buy (NYSE:BBY), Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:DLTR), Campbell Soup (NYSE:CPB) and Analog Devices (NASDAQ:ADI) are all set to report earnings early, while HP's (NYSE:HPQ) update after the bell will offer some insight on the state of the PC market.
4. Genesis struggles to cover $1B shortfall
Crypto’s troubles aren’t ending any time soon, it seems. Genesis, the brokerage hobbled by the collapse of exchange FTX, was forced to deny reports that it is looking at filing for bankruptcy protection, after failing – so far at least – to raise $1B to cover its funding gap.
Bloomberg had reported that Genesis – which suspended client withdrawals last week due to liquidity problems – had approached Binance and Apollo Global Management (NYSE:APO) for a cash injection, only to be refused by both. None of the companies publicly confirmed the report, but Genesis told Reuters it has “no imminent plans” to follow FTX into chapter 11.
FTX’s bankruptcy administrators have meanwhile located some more cash that might yet be salvaged from its wreck, raising the tally to $1.24B, according to the Financial Times. Separate reports indicate that parties linked to its founder Sam Bankman-Fried bought properties worth over $120M in the Bahamas prior to its collapse.
5. Oil whipsaws as Saudi, Kuwait deny output hike report
Crude oil prices rebounded after Saudi Arabia and Kuwait denied a Wall Street Journal report that the desert kingdom is looking at urging OPEC to increase production when it next meets.
By 06:35 ET, U.S. crude prices were up 1.3% at $81.06 a barrel, having earlier fallen as low as $75.89 (its lowest since early January), while Brent futures were up 1.3% at $88.62.
The prospect of yet more mobility restrictions in China continues to weigh, but may find a corrective in U.S. inventory data which are due from the American Petroleum Institute at 4:30 PM ET, as usual.