Breaking News
Investing Pro 0
Black Friday SALE: Up to 54% OFF InvestingPro+ CLAIM OFFER

Analysis-After feverish week, global investors lick wounds and brace for more chaos

Economy Sep 26, 2022 01:51PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This article has already been saved in your Saved Items
 
2/2 © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A staff member of the foreign exchange trading company Gaitame.com watches a monitor displaying a graph of the Japanese yen exchange rate against the U.S. dollar after Japan intervened in the currency market for the first time since 1998 to sh 2/2
 
US500
-0.03%
Add to/Remove from Watchlist
Add to Watchlist
Add Position

Position added successfully to:

Please name your holdings portfolio
 
DJI
+0.45%
Add to/Remove from Watchlist
Add to Watchlist
Add Position

Position added successfully to:

Please name your holdings portfolio
 
GS
+0.68%
Add to/Remove from Watchlist
Add to Watchlist
Add Position

Position added successfully to:

Please name your holdings portfolio
 
ALVG
+0.20%
Add to/Remove from Watchlist
Add to Watchlist
Add Position

Position added successfully to:

Please name your holdings portfolio
 
STT
+0.01%
Add to/Remove from Watchlist
Add to Watchlist
Add Position

Position added successfully to:

Please name your holdings portfolio
 
BK
+0.40%
Add to/Remove from Watchlist
Add to Watchlist
Add Position

Position added successfully to:

Please name your holdings portfolio
 

By Davide Barbuscia and Dhara Ranasinghe

NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) - Global investors are preparing for more market mayhem after a monumental week that whipsawed asset prices around the world, as central banks and governments ramped up their fight against inflation.

Signs of extraordinary times were everywhere. The Federal Reserve delivered its third straight seventy-five basis point rate hike while Japan intervened to shore up the yen for the first time since 1998. The British pound slid to a fresh 37-year trough against the dollar after the country's new finance minister unleashed historic tax cuts and huge increases in borrowing.

"It's hard to know what will break where, and when," said Mike Kelly, head of multi-asset at PineBridge Investments (US). "Before, the thinking had been that a recession would be short and shallow. Now we're throwing that away and thinking about the unintended consequences of much tighter monetary policy."

Stocks plunged everywhere. The Dow Jones Industrial Average nearly joined the S&P 500 and Nasdaq in a bear market while bonds tumbled to their lowest level in years as investors recalibrated their portfolios to a world of persistent inflation and rising interest rates.

Towering above it all was the U.S. dollar, which has rocketed to its highest level in 20 years against a basket of currencies, lifted in part by investors seeking shelter from the wild swings in markets.

"Currency exchange rates ... are now violent in their moves," said David Kotok, chairman and chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors. "When governments and central banks are in the business of setting the interest rates they are shifting the volatility to the currency markets."

For now, the selloffs across asset classes have drawn few bargain hunters. In fact, many believe things are bound to get worse as tighter monetary policy across the globe raises the risks of a worldwide recession.

"We remain cautious," said Russ Koesterich, who oversees the Global Allocation Fund for Blackrock (NYSE:BLK), the world's largest asset manager, noting his allocation to equities is "well below benchmark" and he is also cautious on bonds.

"I think there's a lot of uncertainty on how quickly inflation will come down, there's a lot of uncertainty about whether or not the Fed will go through with as an aggressive tightening campaign as they signaled this week."

Kotok said he is positioned conservatively with high cash levels. "I'd like to see enough of a selloff to make entry attractive in the U.S. stockmarket," Kotok said.

The fallout from the hectic week exacerbated trends for stocks and bonds that have been in place all year, pushing down prices for both asset classes. But the murky outlook meant that they were still not cheap enough for some investors.

"We think the time to go long in equities is still ahead of us until we see signs that the market has bottomed," said Jake Jolly, senior investment strategist at BNY Mellon (NYSE:BK), who has been increasing his allocation to short duration sovereign bonds.

"The market is getting closer and closer to pricing in this recession that is widely expected but it is not yet fully priced in."

Rough week in global equities https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-STOCKS/GLOBAL/dwvkrxoxapm/chart.png

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) strategists on Friday lowered their year-end target for the benchmark U.S. stock index, the S&P 500, to 3,600 from 4,300. The index was last at 3,693.23.

Bond yields, which move inversely to prices, surged across the world. Yields on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury hit their highest level in more than 12 years, while Germany's two-year bond yield rose above 2% for the first time since late 2008. In the UK, five year gilts leapt 50 bps -- their biggest one-day jump since at least late 1991, according to Refinitiv data.

"At some point, the fears will shift from inflation to growth," said Matthew Nest, global head of active fixed income at State Street (NYSE:STT) Global Advisors, who thinks bond yields have moved so high they are starting to look "pretty attractive."

Central banks ramp up fight against inflation https://graphics.reuters.com/GLOBAL-CENTRALBANKS/klvykaanlvg/chart.png

Investors fear things will get worse before they get better.

"The question is now not whether we are going into a recession, it is how deep will the recession be, and might we have some form of financial crisis and major global liquidity shock," said Mike Riddell, a senior fixed income portfolio manager at Allianz (ETR:ALVG) Global Investors in London.

Because monetary policy tends to work with a lag, Riddell estimates the renewed hawkishness from central banks means the global economy will be even weaker by the middle of next year.

"We are of the view that markets are still massively underestimating the global economic growth hit that is coming," he said.

Analysis-After feverish week, global investors lick wounds and brace for more chaos
 

Related Articles

Take Five: Everything to play for
Take Five: Everything to play for By Reuters - Nov 25, 2022 2

LONDON (Reuters) - The final month of the year is almost here but there's no time yet to slow down, with latest U.S. jobs numbers and euro zone inflation data coming up. And don't...

Add a Comment

Comment Guidelines

We encourage you to use comments to engage with other users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind:  

  •            Enrich the conversation, don’t trash it.

  •           Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed. 

  •           Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically. Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user. Racism, sexism and other forms of discrimination will not be tolerated.

  • Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases. Comments that are written in all caps and contain excessive use of symbols will be removed.
  • NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and comments containing links will be removed. Phone numbers, email addresses, links to personal or business websites, Skype/Telegram/WhatsApp etc. addresses (including links to groups) will also be removed; self-promotional material or business-related solicitations or PR (ie, contact me for signals/advice etc.), and/or any other comment that contains personal contact specifcs or advertising will be removed as well. In addition, any of the above-mentioned violations may result in suspension of your account.
  • Doxxing. We do not allow any sharing of private or personal contact or other information about any individual or organization. This will result in immediate suspension of the commentor and his or her account.
  • Don’t monopolize the conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also strongly believe in giving everyone a chance to air their point of view. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
  • Only English comments will be allowed.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at Investing.com’s discretion.

Write your thoughts here
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
Post also to:
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.
Comments (2)
Stephen Fa
Stephen Fa Sep 26, 2022 1:53PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Chaos from the liberal left and their Great Reset
Rubbing Hands
Rubbing Hands Sep 26, 2022 11:07AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
Each article, copy and paste. Probably already farmed the work out to India...
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Add Chart to Comment
Confirm Block

Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?

By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's Investing.com's posts.

%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List

Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.

Report this comment

I feel that this comment is:

Comment flagged

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Continue with Google
or
Sign up with Email