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U.S. Consumers Spending Outran Inflation in September

Published 10/28/2022, 08:39 AM
Updated 10/28/2022, 08:48 AM
© Reuters.

By Geoffrey Smith 

Investing.com -- U.S. consumers kept spending in September, at a rate that outstripped the rise in prices during the month, according to data released on Friday.

Personal spending rose 0.6% on the month, in line with an August figure that was revised up from an initially-reported 0.4% gain. As such, spending rose faster than the price of the average consumer shopping basket, given that the price index for personal consumer expenditures rose by only 0.3%. 

The figures are a testament to the resilience of U.S. consumer spending. They contrast starkly with a number of other recent economic indicators suggesting that the economy is slowing down, but corroborate the generally strong numbers posted by consumer-facing companies in the third quarter. 

Spending also rose faster than personal incomes, which rose 0.4% from August.

Core PCE prices rose 0.5% on the month, maintaining a pace of increase that will concern the Federal Reserve, for whom the PCE basket is a more reliable guide to actual inflation in the economy than the Consumer Price Index. The annual core PCE index rose from 4.9% to 5.1%, a little lower than the 5.2% predicted.

Other data released on Friday indicated that inflation pressures may be starting to ebb. The rise in employment costs slowed for the second quarter in a row in the summer, gaining just 1.2%, after a 1.3% rise in the second quarter. Growth in private-sector wages and salaries consequently slowed to 5.2% on the year from 5.7% in the 12 months through June. 

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"The Fed is monitoring employment costs as it looks for 'compelling' signs that inflation is declining," said Oxford Economics' Nancy Vanden Houten in a note to clients. "The modest deceleration in wage growth in Q3 is surely welcome by the Fed but won't prevent a 75bps rate hike at next week's FOMC meeting."

Latest comments

"The Fed is monitoring employment costs as it looks for 'compelling' signs that inflation is declining," said Oxford Economics' Nancy Vanden Houten in a note to clients. "The modest deceleration in wage growth in Q3 is surely welcome by the Fed . . .
The agenda of the same fed that that flooded central banks with liquidity under the guise of maximizing employment is deceleration of wage growth. At the core of inflation and perverse economics, growth that keeps up with inflation is sacrilege to them.
Spending also rose faster than personal incomes, which rose 0.4% from August.
Not a good sign for practical reasons.
welcome to Bidenomics, the lies continued about the economy
Take easy go up
Go to your local supermarket and see if prices aren't about 20pct more than last year.
Anyone who thinks inflation is only rising 0.3pc for month is crazy. Inflation is much higher than personal spending increase. So basically consumer isn't buying more just less with more $$.
With such a strong economy, continuing huge interest rate hikes should be no problem. Another disappointment for the Fed pivot crowd.
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