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Will the upcoming Bitcoin halving be a sell-the-news event?

Published 04/09/2024, 07:53 AM
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Bitcoin's price skyrocketed in a strong rally above the $71,000 threshold ahead of its much-anticipated fourth halving. The demand for the original cryptocurrency also picked up amid a flurry of activity in the decentralized finance (DeFi) sectors.

Elsewhere, Ethena's ENA token jumped this week following its airdrop, and Ripple's announcement of a new stablecoin alongside Ethereum Foundation's proposal to cut ETH newly minted units has fueled positive sentiment across the market.

The upcoming Bitcoin halving has investors and analysts on edge, with historical data showing a mixed immediate impact but overwhelmingly bullish long-term effects. Past halvings resulted in price surges ranging from 292% to over 8,000%, raising questions about whether the trend will continue.

"Bitcoin's halving event has historically been a precursor to significant market movements," said a Kaiko analyst. "While the past is not always a perfect predictor, the anticipation itself can drive substantial volatility and interest."

Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have also come under the spotlight as they now hold over 4% of Bitcoin's total supply. The trend signals a growing acceptance of cryptocurrency among traditional investors. These funds offer an easy avenue for individuals to participate in the cryptocurrency markets without the need to directly hold the digital currency.

The impact of ETFs and the halving event could combine to exert further pressure on Bitcoin's already limited supply, which could ultimately lead to higher prices.

Despite the excitement, the ETF sector has observed mixed flows, with large outflows from Grayscale's GBTC. However, the overall trend remains positive amid sustained demand for Bitcoin exposure among institutional and retail investors alike.

In the DeFi space, Ethena's ENA token defied the common trend of post-airdrop sell-offs, trading above $1.1, marking a near 97% increase from its launch-day value. 

Moreover, both Bitcoin and Ethereum have seen all-time highs in open interest on derivatives markets, indicating a bullish outlook from traders. However, the crypto market remains unpredictable, with many factors influencing price movements beyond historical patterns and current developments.

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