On Thursday, Guggenheim maintained its Buy rating on Warner Brothers Discovery (NASDAQ:WBD) with a $12.00 price target. The firm's analysis focused on the potential shifts in television and streaming rights for the National Basketball Association (NBA) that could affect media distribution starting with the 2025-26 season.
There is particular attention on the 'B' package rights, which might move from Warner Brothers Discovery's TNT Network to Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA)'s NBCUniversal. This move could lead to a significant increase in rights payments.
Warner Brothers Discovery is considering the implications of matching Comcast's offer for NBA rights. Meanwhile, it was reported that TNT will sublicense College Football Playoff (CFP) games from ESPN. This move is significant as Warner Brothers Discovery currently does not broadcast any football content.
Acquiring CFP rights could help offset the risks associated with potentially losing NBA broadcasts, which are crucial for Turner's carriage rights negotiations.
Guggenheim's report includes a detailed comparison of the costs and consumer behavior impacts of new sports contracts. It assesses the rights costs for various major sports organizations against the benchmark set by the National Football League (NFL). The firm found that the cost per viewer for CFP games is approximately 20% less than that for NBA Playoff games, but still about double the cost per viewer for an NFL game.
Despite the economic efficiency of the CFP rights, Guggenheim notes that the CFP's two-week opening rounds, compared to the NBA's eight-month schedule, only partially mitigate the potential rate pressure Warner Brothers Discovery could face in future pay-TV carriage renewals. The firm's analysis suggests that while the CFP agreement helps, it does not entirely eliminate the risks associated with the possible loss of NBA games.
InvestingPro Insights
As Warner Brothers Discovery (NASDAQ:WBD) navigates the shifting landscape of sports broadcasting rights, it's important to consider the company's financial health and market performance. According to InvestingPro data, Warner Brothers Discovery has a market capitalization of $19.75 billion, and it's trading at a low price/book multiple of 0.45, which might indicate that the stock is currently undervalued. The company's revenue for the last twelve months as of Q1 2024 stands at $40.58 billion, although it has experienced a slight decline of 1.88% during that period. This revenue stream is critical as the company considers strategic moves in acquiring sports rights.
An InvestingPro Tip suggests that Warner Brothers Discovery's valuation implies a strong free cash flow yield, which could provide the financial flexibility needed to invest in lucrative sports broadcasting deals like the NBA and CFP. However, with analysts not expecting the company to be profitable this year and a recent history of not being profitable over the last twelve months, there are financial challenges to navigate.
Investors interested in a deeper dive into Warner Brothers Discovery's potential can access more InvestingPro Tips, with a total of 9 additional tips available at https://www.investing.com/pro/WBD. To enhance your investment strategy with these insights, use coupon code PRONEWS24 to get an additional 10% off a yearly or biyearly Pro and Pro+ subscription.
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