On Friday, Deutsche Bank reiterated its Hold rating on shares of AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV), maintaining a price target of $175.00. The analysis was based on recent IMS/IQVIA data, which indicated that AbbVie's branded Humira retained a 72.2% share of Adalimumab prescriptions, marking a slight increase of 0.4% week-over-week.
The co-branded version of Humira, in partnership with Cordavis, captured a 9.7% share, also showing a modest increase of 0.2% week-over-week. In total, AbbVie's branded and co-branded Humira maintained an 81.9% share of the Adalimumab market, up 0.7% from the previous week.
The report also noted a decline in the volume of branded and co-branded Humira prescriptions, which have decreased by 17% year-to-date and 28% year-over-year. If this trend continues, it could suggest a roughly 13% erosion in volume after adjusting for timing. AbbVie has previously projected that its U.S. Humira sales for the fiscal year 2024 would fall by 36% year-over-year, equivalent to about $7.8 billion, primarily due to pricing pressures.
Moreover, ALVO announced earlier in the week during its first-quarter 2024 earnings report that it had received purchase orders for over 1 million units of SIMLANDI, which are expected to impact U.S. sales in FY24. According to IQVIA data, these orders could represent approximately two months' worth of branded Humira units, potentially leading to an additional 17% decrease in volume for branded Humira, or roughly 10% after adjusting for timing.
Combining this potential 10% decrease with the previously mentioned 13% could result in a total volume erosion for Humira above 20%, suggesting that AbbVie's U.S. Humira sales forecast for FY24 may be more vulnerable to volume declines than initially anticipated.
InvestingPro Insights
As AbbVie navigates the competitive landscape with its flagship product Humira, investors are closely monitoring the company's financial health and market position. According to recent InvestingPro data, AbbVie boasts a robust market capitalization of $279.47 billion, reflecting its substantial presence in the biotechnology industry. Despite a slight revenue contraction of 4.12% over the last twelve months as of Q1 2024, the company maintains a high gross profit margin of 69.17%, indicating strong cost management and pricing power.
Key InvestingPro Tips highlight that AbbVie has consistently increased its dividend for the past 11 years, which could be a sign of confidence from the management in the company's long-term stability and cash flow generation. This is further supported by the expectation of net income growth this year. Moreover, the company's strong free cash flow yield is implied by its current valuation, which may interest investors looking for companies with healthy cash flows relative to their share price.
For readers seeking a deeper analysis and additional insights, there are more InvestingPro Tips available at: https://www.investing.com/pro/ABBV. These tips could provide a broader perspective on AbbVie's performance and outlook. Additionally, using the coupon code PRONEWS24, readers can get an extra 10% off a yearly or biyearly Pro and Pro+ subscription to access an extended list of tips and metrics tailored to their investment strategy. Currently, InvestingPro has 17 analysts who have revised their earnings estimates upwards for the upcoming period, indicating potential optimism in AbbVie's financial performance.
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