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U.S. crude stocks drop little vs. forecast, raising demand questions

Published 07/26/2023, 11:26 AM
Updated 07/26/2023, 11:26 AM
© Reuters.

Investing.com - U.S. crude inventories fell by just a quarter of expected levels last week, government data showed on Wednesday, despite an end to supply injections from the national reserve, which oil bulls typically blamed for poor market optics. 

Changes to fuel inventories were also underwhelming, the Weekly Petroleum Status Report from the Energy Information Administration, or EIA, showed. Both gasoline and distillate balances dropped less than forecast, raising questions about demand in a summer travel period that should logically see large draws.

The U.S. crude inventory balance fell by 0.6M barrels during the week ended July 21, versus the 2.348M-barrel decline forecast by industry analysts tracked by Investing.com. In the prior week to July 14, crude stockpiles slid by 0.708M barrels after a build of 5.946M the prior week — the most in a month.

Interestingly, the weak crude draw reported by the EIA did not come with what had been the market’s caveat for months — release of crude from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. 

Prior to this, weekly drawdowns from the reserve had been a point of contention for oil bulls, who said the additional oil had often suppressed crude prices from rallying. The so-called SPR draws stopped two weeks ago, leaving open the question of whom those long oil would blame if crude prices drop hereon. With just days to the conclusion of July, both U.S. crude and Brent are carrying a 12% gain on the month — all on the notion that demand for oil would just fly.

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The lower-than-expected crude draw for last week also came on the back of the much ballyhooed million-barrel-per-day production cut supposedly carried out by the Saudis for all of July — again raising questions on who would bear blame for poor market optics.

On the gasoline inventory side, the EIA reported a draw of 0.786M barrels for last week. Analysts had expected the agency to cite a decline of 1.678M barrels instead, after a drop of 1.066M the prior week. Automotive fuel gasoline is the No. 1 U.S. fuel product.

Finished motor gasoline products delivered to the marketplace — an indication of demand at the pump — was at 8.939M, higher than the previous week's 8.855M, but still below the seasonal norm, which sees 9.5M barrels of gasoline or more supplied to the market each week.

In the case of distillate stockpiles, the EIA reported a draw of 0.245M barrels. Analysts had forecast a decline of 0.301M barrels last week, against a previous build of 0.014M. Distillates are refined into heating oil, diesel for trucks, buses, trains and ships, and fuel for jets.

Latest comments

What's disturbing to me I'm in oklahoma in tulsa near 2 refineries And 87 octane ,no ethanol, is $3.90 a gallon at 80$ oil price . What happens if oil goes to 120$, will gasoline be 6.50$ a gallon. Burdens epa green energy emission plan has refineries all screwed up. Electric cars are the downfall of america
I think a problem exists of the need to rebuild US government reserves which has not been accounted for in the price. Secondly, the rate of continued US drilling based on the US gov’t pressure on shutting down BLM oil drilling thru minor violations or other minor issues, and the rest of the world on the grounds of the environment. Umtimsttly oil will go up and the poor eill suffer the most because alternative energy is too slow and not as cost effective. Any intelligent thoughts?
There seemed to be a lot of complacency because of the gentle winter season. The US Southwest had a cooler season last summer as well, but now it's back to 117 degrees as usual.  Climate change will bring dark clouds, dust from wildfires, pelting hailstorms, extreme temperatures and high winds, which are no match for solar panels and windmills. To survive climate change we need oil and gas.
Notice that in the climate change survivalist movie 'Day After Tomorrow", those teens didn't survive the storm by relying on solar panels and windmills. They survived that catastrophic storm by burning paper books in a fireplace, sheltered deep inside a public library.
Thank goodness OPEC is just a phone call away. I am confident they will do what is best in any event.
Bulls seething because the facts in this article doesnt go with the hivemind. Its pretty pathetic and comical. Bulls just think this will continue flying forever without drawbacks. Facts are facts and as of recently news has been turning bearish (for now). Not sure why thats hard to comprehend
Ry Me, I'm just as astounded, mate. Thanks for understanding.
Inderstood, but the ptoblem dtill temdins of the need to renuild US hoverment reserves ehich is not beeing acvounted in the price. Secondly, the rate of continued US reduction based on the US gov’t pressure on shutting down BLM oil drilling thru minor violations or issues, and the rext of the wotld on the goundation of environment. Umtimsttly oil will go ip and the poor eill suffer the most because alternative energy is too dlow and not as cost effective. Any intelligent thoughts?
This is my take on the long term - if you subtract out that 250 million or so bbls taken out of the SPR, the supply/demand balance looks a bit different going forward.  Demand has remained fairly robust, while supply has been boosted by something that had been produced some time ago (only government can count something, store it, release it, and count it again lol). If demand keeps pace, even at a lesser level, it seems plausible that without any more withdrawals, the current daily production/output will be hard pressed to keep up with daily consumption and an imbalance could be on the horizon especially as investments in large upstream projects has lagged for several years and those big projects take years to come online.  Regardless of price, it is doubtful any more huge releases from the SPR would occur as the potential for the need of the SPR in an emergency beyond trying to lower prices will undoubtedly come into focus during the election cycle even if no more releases are done.
My comment got blocked because I was right lol.
Ok, let's get something clear here: If your comment doesn't get through, it's because of filters that block out colorful language etc. Sometimes, there's nothing offensive but your comment may get snagged because of some choice words. Apols but that's just the way it is. Try posting again with different words. Bests.
ok....
Trust me demand is strong , and some of that storage oil still making it through the system
Ok, sir. Let's see the data in the coming weeks.
Source: “Dude trust me”
Another worthless bearish article.  So you think one week of reporting dictates a trend.. LOL  Typical
LOL! Had the report gone the other way, I'm pretty sure you'd be singing differently. And by the way, it's the second running week without SPR draws and we're supposed to see a significant choke on inventories from all those so-called Saudi cuts. As I said in my prior reply to you, let's see what happens the next week and the week after. I agree it's no trend yet, but it's amusing how convinced you longs were that the market would just fly once you take those SPR draws off.
For real coverage, follow Phil Flynn analysis.
To classify me with other bulls that thought oil was going to fly after SPR draw is another attempt of your narcissistic behavior as i have never stated that would happen. I can not believe that investing.com publishes your full of assumption bs not facts articles. Well, considering the source, yes i can.
So, do you think we are witnessing a massive deflationary spiral and that the Fed should stop adding straws on the back of a potential CRE debt collapse?
What about Cushing? -2.6m
Yes EIA has lost All credibility..another Biden scam
It seems like the EIA reports have lost credibility with their new adjustments institutions and most traders are just ignoring these manipulated reports.
 "Fishy" was your expression; I just borrowed it to reply to you. To me, what's really fishy is where the heck are all those Saudi cuts going. At least the Russian b(s) has been cleared up, with reports now saying their loadings would amp up in Sept vs July/Aug.
Again I don't care about the Saudis the message you are giving me is if the Saudis cheat the EIA can cheat too and that would prove my point is that what you really mean?
Again I don't about the Saudis the message I'm getting from you is if opec manipulates the oil market the the EIA is doing the same is that what you really mean? and that would prove my point.
Warm Camp, with love ... :)
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