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Oil up nearly 3% on huge U.S. draw; Rates worry limits upside

Published 06/28/2023, 01:50 PM
Updated 06/28/2023, 03:12 PM
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Investing.com -- Oil prices jumped nearly 3% Wednesday, recovering the previous day’s loss and more, after a huge weekly drawdown in U.S. crude stockpiles. But the rally appeared restrained by lingering worries about interest rates as global central banks vowed a greater fight against inflation.

New York-traded West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, settled up $1.86, or 2.8%, at $69.56 per barrel, after an intraday peak at $69.70. On Tuesday, WTI fell 2.4%. 

London-traded Brent crude was up $1.77, or 2.5%, at $74.03, after a session peak at $75.08. Brent was down 2.6% in the previous session. 

It was the first meaningful gain in oil prices since a near 3% run-up a week ago.

Yet, the upside seemed restrained by fears about further rate hikes central banks could put up in their quest to quell inflation — a good part of which is caused by higher energy prices. 

A panel discussion on Wednesday hosted by the European Central Bank and including the heads of the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan, showed nearly all on board with higher interest rates.

“This really is the problem for any rally now in oil,” said John Kilduff, partner at New York energy hedge fund Again Capital. “The central banks will likely follow through with their own restrictive action, which will slow economic growth and, with that, demand for oil.” 

Biggest weekly crude draw in five

Wednesday’s market run-up came as the  Energy Information Administration, or EIA, reported that the U.S. crude inventory balance fell by 9.603 million barrels during the week ended June 23, way above the 1.757M barrel decline forecast by industry analysts polled by Investing.com. 

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It was the largest weekly draw in crude since the week to May 21 when the EIA reported a drop of 12.456M.

Last week’s plunge adds to the 3.831M barrel draw in the prior week to June 16.

The crude draw reported by the EIA also came with an unusual caveat: the release of 1.4M from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, without which the inventory drop would logically have been 11M.

On the gasoline inventory side, the EIA reported a build of 0.603M barrels. Analysts had expected the agency to cite a draw of 0.126M barrels instead, after the previous week’s rise of 0.479M barrels. Automotive fuel gasoline is the No. 1 US fuel product.

In the case of distillate stockpiles, the EIA reported a build of 0.124M barrels. Analysts had forecast a rise of just 0.782M barrels last week, against a previous decline of 0.433M. Distillates are refined into heating oil, diesel for trucks, buses, trains and ships, and fuel for jets.

Latest comments

Fake inventory data. Time to audit the EIA. No way we used that much oil in a week.
It's likely an aberration that could be fixed by next week, sir. But the exports were a blowout at above 5 mln barrels per day. Proud of shale actually. Shows potential again to lead the world.
No way we haven’t used more all this time for many months on average. Every where I go and travel there’s no slowing down in the consumer,
 I see less traffic on my commute to work, campgrounds have vacancies and the CME group came out and said demand is weaking.
I don’t understand the need for the continuing SPR draws. Oil price isn’t that high. Anyone have any ideas as to why this is continuing?
NK Dole, these are congressionally approved draws, sir (when the Dems held the House) and they are going through the process, which is about to end. More draws set for 2024 have already been canceled by the DoE.
Because of foolish policies aimed at politics and no what’s best for the country. The administration should be adding at and below 70 and stoping to add and even sell some above 80. Additionally this administration is not limiting russias revenue. They would rather save face to the people for re-election. The proof it’s not working is the fall in oil prices. If russias crude was coming off the market then we would see prices higher on average. So I don’t know what Gonzalo is referring to because flooding the market from the SPR doesn’t do much to Russian revenue in regards to sanctions. Only the end price people pay to a point because Russian production and crude is still being sold in the same amounts as before the sanctions. You would see higher market prices in WTI and Brent if sanctions were really working.
 Agree to an extent with you. The sanctions have a dual objective. While the stated objective is to drain the Russian war chest, I think what it is more effectively doing is draining Russian reserves -- in principle that is. My contention is that the Russians have sold more oil at these prices than they would at say $80 or $90. So, what has the G7 cap of $60 achieved? It has effectively limited Urals at a landing rate of $60 per barrel, making the Russians export more to make up the revenue they want. And here's where the price cap actually works for consuming countries, even if it doesn't really curb revenues for the Kremlin. The sheer volume of additional oil is doing a marvelous job in scre(wing) main ally Saudis (the polite language would be undercutting) and keeping a barrel at mid 70s tops. My humble 2 cts.
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