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Oil up 6th week on Saudi cuts gambit; Charts show overbought market

Published 08/04/2023, 01:37 PM
© Reuters.

Investing.com -- Play it to the hilt.

Like an encore demanded each time OPEC performs, the Saudi-cuts gambit rose to the occasion again this week, with the kingdom announcing ahead of the cartel's monthly meeting on Friday that it will drop another million barrels per day from its September production — akin to what it did in July and will repeat this month.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, crude settled up $1.27, or 1.6%, at $82.82 per barrel. 

The session high for WTI was $83.23, a peak not seen since early April. 

For the week, the U.S. crude benchmark rose 2.8%, adding to July’s gain of nearly 16%.

London-based Brent crude settled the U.S. trading session up $1.10, or 1.3%, at $86.24. 

The intraday peak for Brent was $86.64 — the highest since mid-April. 

For the week, the global oil benchmark gained almost 2%, after running up nearly 14% for July.

The Saudis announced their September production cut on Thursday through an anonymous official at the energy ministry in Riyadh. That left Friday’s OPEC+ meeting, held via a Zoom hook-up, uneventful.

To make it merrier for oil bulls, Russia chirped in on the Saudi announcement on Thursday, saying it would shed 300,000 barrels per day from its exports.  But traders surveyed by Investing.com expressed little faith in the Russian pledge, given Moscow’s relatively low truth-score in almost everything. 

While the momentum in WTI suggested it could ride till $86 before serious resistance emerged, the rally could reach exhaustion earlier, technical chartist Sunil Kumar Dixit said.

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“WTI has the appearance of an overbought market although its 4-Hour Stochastics still have room for upside, with open targets for the 100-day SMA, or Simple Moving Average, of $85.45 and the monthly Middle Bollinger Band of $86.90,” said Dixit, who’s chief technical strategist at SKCharting,com.

While a previous correction towards $78.70 had rebooted WTI’s rally, “a settlement  below the 5-day EMA, or Exponential Moving Average, of $81.45 will be an initial sign of exhaustion,” Dixit added.

Latest comments

ziauddin
This was an “interesting” comment section today
Also, these “oil analysis/commentaries” show amazing misunderstanding of the crucial difference between Saudi and Russian cuts. Saudi cuts are calculated and optional. They make cuts to win the game. Russian cuts are forced. They announce them, because their output goes down anyway. It means you don’t have to “trust Russia” to believe in the cuts. This is not a matter of “trust”. Russian cuts are reality of the declining production there. This decline, together with suppression of the US output, makes Saudis the winners.
 Your banal hatred of anything that hasn't a right/Saudi slant in this market makes you incapable of understanding anything that's beyond your bias.
 Pure nonsense. You are just incapable to stay on topic and have to resort to ad hominem stuff.
Baranis point is to call into question your willingness to believe that Russia has cut production. What is your source for that? If it is Russia, than Barani is correct: they are suspect, contradicting themselves.
Saudis are in the driver seat and they have it without any “gambits”. Hint: gambit, in chess, means sacrificing something for the goal of winning the game much later. The opponent in the chess game will resist and can prevail too. Saudis do not have any real opponents in oil market now. Both Russia and the US has been eliminated, mostly by the same Biden administration. Accordingly, Saudis just attack, make strong hits and win the game.
 At least, I do not peddle the party line, slightly disguised as oil market analysis, to readership. A reader can have political views. A journalist was supposed, in ancient times, to deliver balanced, on topic presentation.
Five up, Barani. Your first-hand knowledge is not going to trump this guy's paranoid conspiracies.
 Of course, mate! LOL :)
USA has relatively 0 truth-score in almost everything.
f off
Yeah f off Czech
How long are we going to milk this excuse oil traitors?
big guy is at it. Across the street reads 4.09 per gallon
charts showing Nasdaq overbought more than 6 months
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