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Oil recovers on China data and possible supply cuts extension

Published 12/01/2019, 10:50 PM
Updated 12/01/2019, 10:53 PM
© Reuters.

Investing.com - Oil prices recovered on Monday amid China’s better-than-expected PMI data and expectations that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies may deepen output cuts at their meeting later this week.

Oil rose on Monday after China’s official Manufacturing Purchasing Index (PMI) released on Saturday came in at 50.2, showing expansion for the first time in seven months and indicating an increase in fuel demand. On Monday morning, the private Caixin/Markit PMI came in at 51.8, up from 51.7 in October and higher than the expected 51.4.

Having risen by more than $1 earlier in the day, the Crude Oil WTI Futures were at 56.09 by 10:48 PM ET (03:48 GMT), up 1.67%. International Brent Oil Futures went up 1.31% to 61.28.

“At the open, prices remain supported by the surprising resilient China factory activity with the forward-looking PMI’s beating expectations,” Reuters cited Stephen Innes, chief Asia market strategist at AxiTrader.

Investors are paying close attention to the meeting on December 5 and 6 where the OPEC and its allies are expected to agree to deepen the existing oil output cuts by about 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.6 million bpd and to extend the cuts to at least June 2020. The group’s current supply cuts of 1.2 million bpd started in January and will expire at the end of March 2020.

Crude prices plunged 5% last Friday as Russia sent out mixed signals on its commitment to extend production cuts, and U.S. President Donald Trump signed two bills to support Hong Kong protests against Beijing, adding to the trade tensions between the world’s two biggest economies.

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In November, oil prices rose on expectations of the two countries reaching a trade deal by the end of the year, but this latest development of fresh trade tensions may weigh on oil prices next year, along with new supply that could create a glut, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.

Latest comments

I'm surprised that Reuters hasn't made Iraq's flagrant violations of OPEC policy a nut paragraph by itself, and explain that this could be nothing but pure jawboning ahead of the Thursday-Friday meeting. The wire service reporters who cover OPEC know these things well. Reuters should have done a better job of weaving some analysis in this story, so that their readers do not easily get misled by characters like Ghadhban. He thinks he's doing OPEC a favor but this could end badly as market expectations now are building. Come Friday and there's no arrangement the market can really take comfort from, and you could see another 4-5% drop in prices.
"Ghadhban added that Iraq, as of Sunday, has exceeded 100% commitment with the supply deal and that an agreement capping production from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region will also aid compliance" ... How convenient: Iraq complying with OPEC targets JUST BEFORE the OPEC meeting. Someone please give this guy a round of applause. Seriously.
OPEC and allied oil producers will consider deepening their existing oil output cuts by about 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.6 million bpd, Iraq's oil minister Thamer Ghadhban said on Sunday, Reuters reported. This comes from a country that is a serial offender to OPEC's production cuts policy. Iraq has violated almost every pledge it has made on cutting production, leaving the Saudis to shoulder most of its burden. It's an absolute and sick joke that Ghadhban should be the one talking about deeper cuts when Iraq hasn't even the discipline to do what it had promised earlier. It's simple: Oil prices fell 5% on Friday for very legitimate reasons of Russia/Saudi indecision on extending current cuts. I seriously doubt both these heavyweights are thinking of deepening cuts to 1.6 million bpd. Iraq is just greedy in wanting to get the market back up.
Yesterday oil was down bcause china, today oil is up bcause china. Writers r lazy.
hahaha...up and down because of china...and amazingly china is not in the list of OPEC countries...omg
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