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METALS-Copper falls after U.S. data, China concerns

Published 05/04/2011, 12:32 PM
Updated 05/05/2011, 03:33 PM
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* Antofagasta reports Q1 copper output down 29,000 T

* Aurubis sees copper revisiting $10,000/T on strong demand

* U.S. ISM non-manufacturing index falls to 52.8 in April

(Updates prices after data, adds comments)

By Melanie Burton and Sue Thomas

LONDON, May 4 (Reuters) - Copper fell to its lowest since mid March on Wednesday as investors worried that tightening monetary measures in China, signs of slowing U.S. growth and high energy prices will restrain growth and constrict demand.

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange touched $9,100, its lowest since March 15, before recouping some losses to close at $9,124 compared with Tuesday's close at $9,350 a tonne.

The metal used in construction and power fell sharply after data flagged weakness in the U.S. economic recovery, with reports showing a sharp slowdown in the vast services sector and less hiring by private companies in April.

This added to concerns that China, the world's top consumer of copper, plans to further tighten monetary policy, despite manufacturing data that showed its economy is cooling.

"It's inevitable that the tightening of monetary policy will be starting to impact on industrial manufacturing output," said Natixis head of commodities research Nic Brown.

"On top of that you have the potential damage being done by high energy prices, where we would expect that on its own to act as a kind of tax on industry as well as households."

Oil fell on Wednesday, but is still near 2-1/2 year highs.

Copper had been trading in a strong inverse correlation with the dollar, but the link has weakened recently and on Wednesday both the metal and the currency fell.

MAKES SENSE

"For us if copper prices fall to mid to high $8,000s that kind of makes sense, those levels are not unreasonable," Brown said.

"The market is still tight. There is still substantial growth taking place in the developing world, we don't think the bull story in copper has completely gone away, but clearly the conditions in the market are quite difficult at the minute."

A series of earnings reports by copper producers and consumers on Wednesday underlined a downward trend in copper output.

Anglo-Swiss miner Xstrata reported a 6 percent decline in copper output in the first quarter due to severe weather conditions at its Collahuasi mine in Chile and lower grades at its Alumbrera mine in Argentina.

Chilean miner Antofagasta said copper production in the first quarter came in about 29,000 tonnes below initial targets and cut the full-year target for its flagship Los Pelambres mine.

Mid-tier producer Kazakhmys PLC also noted a production shortfall of 5 percent to 74,000 tonnes, but said it remained on track to meet the full-year target of 300,000 tonnes.

Top European copper producer Aurubis expects overall demand for copper to remain strong this year with prices picking up at times again to $10,000 a tonne, a senior manager of the company said.

But many remain unconvinced.

"You can read it that it could support prices, but you could also read that even as production levels have fallen and demand has picked up, LME stocks are still going up," a London trader said.

Copper stocks hit an 11-month high, the latest data showed, continuing a rise so far in the second quarter, which is typically a strong seasonal quarter for demand.

Aluminium closed at $2,750 from $2,797 at the close on Tuesday, with rising energy costs and automotive sales preventing further losses.

"Strong US auto sales data provided some additional support for aluminium," ANZ said in a note.

Detroit automakers posted solid U.S. gains in April.

Battery material lead closed at $2,455 from $2,509. Nickel fell more than 5 percent to close at $25,825 from $27,325.

Tin, untraded at the close, was bid at $30,950 from $32,300, while zinc was $2,190 from $2,245.

Metal Prices at 1615 GMT Comex copper in cents/lb, LME prices in $/T and SHFE prices in yuan/T Metal Last Change Percent Move End 2010 Ytd Percent

move COMEX Cu 414.60 -9.95 -2.34 444.70 -6.77 LME Alum 2752.00 -45.00 -1.61 2470.00 11.42 LME Cu 9123.00 -227.00 -2.43 9600.00 -4.97 LME Lead 2454.50 -54.50 -2.17 2550.00 -3.75 LME Nickel 25810.00 -1515.00 -5.54 24750.00 4.28 LME Tin 30950.00 -1350.00 -4.18 26900.00 15.06 LME Zinc 2190.00 -55.00 -2.45 2454.00 -10.76 SHFE Alu 16840.00 5.00 +0.03 16840.00 0.00 SHFE Cu* 67910.00 -1090.00 -1.58 71850.00 -5.48 SHFE Zin 17215.00 -35.00 -0.20 19475.00 -11.60 ** Benchmark month for COMEX copper * 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07 (Editing by Anthony Barker)

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