Gold at week-low as Fed on hawkish overdrive; more downside seen

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Investing.com-- Gold hit a one-week low Thursday after the Federal Reserve vowed to hike rates until inflation returns to its annual target of 2% — a pledge market followers said could deliver more downside for the yellow metal.

Gold’s most-active futures contract on New York’s Comex, December, settled down $27.50, or 1.4%, at $1939.60 ounce.

The spot price of gold was at $1,920.82 by 15:30 ET (19:30 GMT). Spot gold, determined by real-time trades in physical bullion and more closely followed than futures by some traders, was down $9.66, or 0.5%, on the day.

Spot gold reached as high as $1,947.80 on Wednesday, stopping just before the $1,950 resistance.

“Once again, $1,950 proves to be the bar for spot gold to beat,” said Sunil Kumar Dixit, chief technical strategist at SKCharting.com. “If spot gold re-establishes its hold on $1,950, it will open the way for an upward test at $1,980. At below $1,924, sellers will be trying to drag gold to $1,900 and eventually to $1,885.”

Gold sank after the 10-year yield on U.S. treasuries hit an intraday peak of 4.495, its highest since 2007, reflecting a bond market in steep selloff. The Dollar Index, meanwhile, hit six-month highs, limiting buying of dollar-denominated commodities by holders of other currencies.

“Gold’s kryptonite remains a hawkish Fed that is fueling a bond market selloff,” said Ed Moya, analyst at online trading platform OANDA.

Fed projects another quarter point rate hike by year-end

Both yields and the dollar shot up after the Fed projected another quarter-percentage point rate increase by the year-end, despite leaving rates unchanged for September itself at a policy meeting on Wednesday.

“We are prepared to raise rates further, if appropriate," Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told a news conference. "The fact that we decided to maintain the policy rate at this meeting doesn't mean we have decided that we have or have not at this time reached that stance of monetary policy that we are seeking."

The Fed had raised interest rates 11 times between February 2022 and July 2023, adding a total of 5.25 percentage points to a prior base rate of just 0.25%. The central bank has forecast that U.S. rates will trend around 5.1% through 2024.

“The end of tightening is here for Europe, but higher-for-longer means investors will continue increasing their fixed income exposure,” said Moya. “Gold will have one last round of weakness here as US growth exceptionalism will keep yields trending higher. The peak in Treasury yields is almost here, but until recession risks become the base case for the US, gold might struggle to stabilize.”

(Ambar Warrick contributed to this item)