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Gold pauses after Friday’s rally; global central banks in focus

Published 06/04/2012, 10:05 AM
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Investing.com - Gold futures held steady during U.S. morning hours on Monday, consolidating strong gains from the previous session as markets looked forward to several monetary policy meetings later this week before pushing prices higher.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for August delivery traded at USD1,621.15 a troy ounce during U.S. morning trade, dipping 0.06%.      

The August contract traded in between a tight range of USD1,629.55 a troy ounce, the daily high and a session low of USD1,616.05. Prices touched USD1,631.25 on Friday, the highest since May 8.

Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1,532.55 a troy ounce, the low from May 30 and near-term resistance at USD1,639.05, the high from May 8.

Market sentiment found some support earlier amid speculation over coordinated liquidity-boosting measures by global central banks.

Traders are closely watching several monetary policy meetings due this week, including the European Central Bank on Wednesday and Bank of England on Thursday, for clues on their responses to weakening global growth.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Thursday will testify before a congressional committee about the state of the U.S. economy.

Gold prices consolidated after scoring their largest one-day gain in more than three-years on Friday, after the Department of Labor said that the U.S. economy added just 69,000 jobs in May, the smallest increase in a year and far below expectations for a gain of 150,000.

The unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked up to 8.2% from 8.1%, the first increase in 11 months.

The weak data added to concerns that the economic recovery in the U.S. is losing momentum, which could lead to a third round of quantitative easing from the U.S. central bank.

Gold investors will be closely watching U.S. data in the second quarter for clues as to the likelihood of a fresh round of monetary easing, which could potentially hurt the dollar and support gold.

Vincent Reinhart, Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. economist and a former Federal Reserve official, said Friday that there is an 80% chance that a new quantitative easing program is announced at the June 19-20 Fed meeting.

"Slower employment growth, worsening strains in European markets, and a gloomier assessment of US politicians’ ability to steer clear of the impending fiscal cliff makes it likely that the Fed will mark down its already tepid forecast," he wrote in a note to clients Friday.

QE has been a key driver in gold’s bull run, as it keeps interest rates and borrowing costs low, which makes gold more attractive compared with yield- or dividend-bearing assets such as bonds or stocks.    

Gold gained as much as 15% earlier this year to hit USD1,790 an ounce after the Fed said in January it would keep interest rates near zero until at least late 2014 and indicated that it could introduce a fresh round of asset-purchases.

However, prices have lost almost 9% since late February, amid growing concerns the European debt crisis has been escalating, which has fueled demand for the yellow metal's hedge, the greenback.

Elsewhere on the Comex, silver for July delivery fell 0.65% to trade at USD28.32 a troy ounce, while copper for July delivery was flat to trade at USD3.313 a pound.

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