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Gold futures - Weekly outlook: March 11 - 15

Published 03/10/2013, 07:07 AM
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Investing.com - Gold futures ended Friday’s session mildly higher, as investors bought the precious metal after U.S. nonfarm payroll figures indicated the U.S. economy maintained its momentum, but not so much for the Federal Reserve to end its stimulus program.

Gold prices were lower earlier in the day as a broadly stronger U.S. dollar and healthy gains in U.S. equity markets weighed.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for April delivery eased up 0.2% on Friday to settle the week at USD1,577.80 a troy ounce. On the week, gold futures prices posted a modest 0.15% gain.

Earlier Friday, prices slumped to a session low of USD1,560.60 a troy ounce, the weakest level since February 21, when futures slid to a seven-month low of USD1,554.80.

Gold prices were likely to find support at USD1,554.80 a troy ounce, the low from February 21 and resistance at USD1,602.20, the high from February 28.

Gold prices fell to the lowest levels of the session after the U.S. Department of Labor said the economy added 236,000 jobs in February, beating expectations for a 160,000 increase.

However, January’s figure was revised down to an increase of 119,000 from a previously reported gain of 157,000.

The data also showed that the unemployment rate ticked down to 7.7% from 7.9% in January.

Prices recovered as market analysts noted that the still-high jobless rate will keep the Fed’s asset-purchase program in place for the indefinite future. The central bank previously stated that monetary policy will remain accommodative “at least as long” as the jobless rate remains above 6.5%.

Moves in the gold price this year have largely tracked shifting expectations as to whether the U.S. central bank could bring quantitative easing, one of the biggest boosts to gold’s bull run, to an end this year.

Gold’s gains were limited as the jobs data strengthened the U.S. dollar. The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies, ended the week at 83.01, the strongest level since August 5.

Demand for the safe haven U.S. dollar was further boosted after ratings agency Fitch Ratings cut Italy’s sovereign credit rating to BBB+ from A-, citing the inconclusive outcome of last month’s parliamentary elections and a deeper recession.

Meanwhile, healthy gains in U.S. equity markets further dimmed the investment appeal of the precious metal. The Dow Jones Industrial Average moved further into unchartered territory Friday following the upbeat jobs data.

In the week ahead, gold traders will be closely watching U.S. data on retail sales, industrial production and inflation to determine the strength of the economic recovery.
 
Any improvement in the U.S. economy could scale back expectations for further easing by the Fed, boosting the U.S. dollar and weighing on dollar-denominated commodities.

Elsewhere on the Comex, silver for May delivery rose 0.55% on Friday to settle the week at USD28.96 a troy ounce. On the week, silver future prices added 1.3%.

Meanwhile, copper for May delivery fell 0.2% on Friday to close the week at USD3.514 a pound. On the week, copper prices eased up a modest 0.1%.

Official data released over the weekend showed that consumer prices in China rose 3.2% in February from a year earlier, above expectations for a 3% increase and accelerating sharply from a 2% rate of increase in January.

The faster-than-expected increase in the rate of inflation was likely to dampen hopes that Beijing will introduce fresh easing measures in the near-term to boost economic growth.

Separate reports showed that industrial production rose 9.9% in February, less than the expected 10.5% increase and following a 10.3% rise the previous month.

On Friday a report showed that the Chinese trade surplus narrowed less-than-expected in February from January, as exports jumped 21.8% and imports tumbled 15.2%.

The country's trade surplus hit USD15.3 billion last month, down from a USD29.2 billion surplus reported in January. Analysts were expecting an USD8.8 billion deficit.
 
China is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.

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