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Crude oil futures - Weekly outlook: March 11 - 15

Published 03/10/2013, 07:27 AM
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Investing.com - New York-traded crude oil futures rose to a six-day high on Friday, as upbeat U.S. employment data added to the view that the nation’s economic recovery was gaining momentum, lifting hopes for higher oil demand.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in April rose 0.35% Friday to settle the week at USD91.86 a barrel by close of trade.

Nymex prices rose to as high as USD92.03 earlier in the day, the strongest level since February 28. On the week, New York-traded oil futures tacked on 1.1%, the first weekly gain in three.

Oil prices rose to the highest levels of the session after the Department of Labor said the U.S. economy added 236,000 jobs last month, blowing past expectations for an increase of 160,000.

The unemployment rate ticked down to 7.7%, the lowest level since December 2008, from 7.9% in January.

Oil traders have long been taking cues from the monthly jobs report, the most-closely followed indicator of U.S. employment, because it offers insight into the economic health of the world's biggest crude-oil consumer.  

An improving economy is generally correlated with increased demand for oil and fuel products like gasoline.

The U.S. is the world’s biggest oil-consuming country, responsible for almost 22% of global oil demand.

Oil’s gains were limited as the robust jobs data added to speculation over an earlier-than-expected end to the Federal Reserve’s easing program, bolstering demand for the dollar.

The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies, ended the week at 83.01, the strongest level since August 5.

Demand for the safe haven U.S. dollar was further boosted after ratings agency Fitch Ratings cut Italy’s sovereign credit rating to BBB+ from A-, citing the inconclusive outcome of last month’s parliamentary elections and a deeper recession.

Meanwhile, in China, a report Friday showed that the nation’s trade surplus narrowed less-than-expected in February from January, as exports jumped 21.8%, while imports tumbled 15.2%.

China’s trade surplus hit USD15.3 billion last month, down from a USD29.2 billion surplus reported in January. Analysts were expecting an USD8.8 billion deficit.

Official data released over the weekend showed that consumer prices in China rose 3.2% in February from a year earlier, above expectations for a 3% increase and accelerating sharply from a 2% rate of increase in January.

The faster-than-expected increase in the rate of inflation was likely to dampen hopes that Beijing will introduce fresh easing measures in the near-term to boost economic growth.

Separate reports showed that industrial production rose 9.9% in February, less than the expected 10.5% increase and following a 10.3% rise the previous month.

China is the world's second largest oil consumer after the U.S. and has been the engine of strengthening demand.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil futures for April delivery fell 0.75% Friday to settle the week at USD109.98 a barrel, the lowest level since December 26.

The London-traded Brent contract lost 0.6% over the week, while the spread between the Brent and the crude contracts narrowed to USD18.12 a barrel, the lowest since January 31.

Brent prices came under pressure after a pipeline system used to transport North Sea oil resumed operation following a five-day halt on Thursday.

In the week ahead, oil traders will be closely watching U.S. data on retail sales, industrial production and inflation to determine the strength of the economic recovery.

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