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Yen Accumulation Or Distribution?

Published 12/04/2012, 12:04 AM
NZD/JPY
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Here is a daily chart of NZD/JPY; the pattern looks pretty similar on many other yen cross pairs. The yen recently went through a hefty bout of weakness, as the chart illustrates, and it now appears to have entered a trading range.

Is this accumulation -- meaning are buyers gearing up for the next phase up -- or distribution, where sellers are taking profits before the market heads down?
<span class=NZD/JPY" title="NZD/JPY" width="1365" height="642">
I was in on the run up, and I've exited. I'm looking to re-enter now, but I don't quite feel comfortable with this yet; I'd prefer a deeper retracement. If the yen breaks out above the trading range, I may enter a long position on the view that a breakout to the upside confirms that this trading range was a period of re-accumulation. If the market breaks down, I'll look for support and preferably a new trading range to form where I can buy from.

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