Weekly Technical Analysis For January 15th to 19th, 2018
EUR/USD: The EUR/USD rose to a three year high level. US economic reports continued to weigh and it pushes down the greenback. The US headline CPI met expectations but it has fallen to 2.1% (YoY) in December from November’s 2.2%. The Core CPI rose to 1.8% from 1.7% however it is still below 2.0% y/y. Additionally, US Producer Price and Retail Sales fell short of estimates.
The Euro gained more value aggressively after the European Central Bank said it could consider a gradual shift in guidance from early 2018, according to the minutes of its December meeting. The greenback has fallen for five consecutive weeks against its major currencies.
In the upcoming week, we will watch the Eurozone Inflation reading. The CPI inflation is expected to be 0.4% in December which will carry y/y inflation to 1.4% as the same as a month ago. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive for the single currency.
Moreover; Building Permits, Housing Starts, and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index will be the main market movers in the US.
The EUR/USD pair surged and hit the 1.2200 resistance level. In order for the upside pressure to grow more, it needs to stay above 1.2200, on a daily basis. At this point, the strong resistance lie will be at 1.2330. While, if the pair shows a taking profit action, we will face 1.2110 and 1.2075 as support levels.
Support: 1.2110 – 1.2075 – 1.2020
Resistance 1.2200 – 1.2330
GBP/USD: In the UK, December Inflation will be the main release of the week. The CPI inflation is expected to ease to 3.0% from 3.1% a month ago. Core inflation in the meantime is expected to ease from 2.7% to 2.6%. Also, retail sales will be the another release to be followed from UK. A rising inflation and Retail Sales will be positive for Sterling as it will hint UK economic activity.
The GBP/USD pair rose significantly last week. In the event that the bullish action continues, we will follow a major resistance level of 1.3880. On the other hand, if the price moves down, the daily support level can be found at 1.3632. However, as long as the price stays above 1.3632 on a daily basis, the positive outlook is most likely dominate.
Support: 1.3632 – 1.3555 – 1.3485
Resistance: 1.3880
USD/JPY: The USD/JPY currency found sellers and dropped to the 110.86 key support level. If the price is able to break down and stay below 110.86, on a four-hourly basis, the selling pressure may gain more momentum. In this case, next support levels are given at 110.61 and 110.61. Otherwise, if the pair rises above 110.86, we will follow again resistance levels at 111.28 and 111.66.
Support: 110.86 – 110.61 – 110.15
Resistance : 111.28 – 111.66 -112.08
GOLD: The Gold price has extended gainings for the five consecutive weeks session. In the event that the rise continues, the strong resistance levels can be found at 1352 and 1367. Although, if the price shows a taking profit action, we will face the main support level of 1330. However, as long as the yellow metal price sustains above 1330, on a daily basis, the bullish action will dominate in the gold price.
Support: 1330 – 1319 – 1307
Resistance: 1352 – 1367