Will Higher Premiums Drive Unum Group's (UNM) Q4 Earnings?

We expect Unum Group (NYSE:UNM) to surpass expectations in fourth-quarter 2017 results after the market closes on Jan 31.

Why a Likely Positive Surprise?

Our proven model shows that Unum Group has the right combination of the two key ingredients to beat estimates this quarter.

Zacks ESP: Unum Group has an Earnings ESP of +0.83%. This is because the Most Accurate estimate of $1.09 is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.08. The positive ESP indicates a likely positive surprise. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Unum Group holds a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), which increases the predictive power of ESP as stocks with a favorable Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 or 3 (Hold) along with a positive Earnings ESP have significantly higher chances of an earnings beat.

Conversely, the Sell-rated stocks (#4 or 5) should never be considered going into an earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Factors Driving the Better-Than-Expected Earnings

Unum Group has likely witnessed bottom-line growth in the soon-to-be-reported quarter, fueled by better-than-expected performance at Unum U.S. and Colonial Life segments. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $1.08, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 8%.

Notably, Unum Group expects 2017 operating earnings to grow at or slightly above 5-8% range.

Also, continued share buybacks should have boosted the bottom line.

Moreover, the company has likely experienced premium growth at both Unum U.S. and Colonial Life segments, driven by improving sales and persistency.

Further, voluntary benefits sales at Unum U.S. have likely improved in the fourth quarter.

However, the results of Unum U.K. are expected to have remained soft, due to a challenging economic environment.

Also, the company is estimated to display lower operative revenues at both Unum U.K. and Closed Block segments in the yet-to-be-reported quarter.

Other Stocks to Consider

Some other stocks worth considering from the insurance industry with the right combination of elements to exceed estimates this time around are as follows:

American Equity Investment Life Holding Company (NYSE:AEL) is set to report fourth-quarter earnings on Feb 7. The stock has an Earnings ESP of +1.12% and a Zacks Rank of 2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Primerica, Inc. (NYSE:PRI) has an Earnings ESP of +0.58% and is a Zacks #1 Ranked player. The company is set to announce fourth-quarter earnings on Feb 7.

Torchmark Corporation (NYSE:TMK) has an Earnings ESP of +0.12% and is a Zacks #2 Ranked player. The company is slated to release fourth-quarter earnings on Feb 7.

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