Gold started this year with a quick rally, but it was mostly erased. It’s still above its mid-2022 high, but will it stay there for much longer?
Is It All Bearish?
The above chart features gold prices in terms of weekly candlesticks. As you can see, it just approached its August high, and it’s trying to break above those highs once again. The previous attempts failed, so the question is whether this attempt will succeed.
I doubt it. Given the shape of this week’s candlestick, a decline from here is much more likely. After all, that’s what prices tend to do after reversal candlesticks – they change direction, and there’s no doubt that the most recent short-term move was to the upside.
Of course, the week is not over yet, but given the lack of a decent rally in today’s pre-market trading, it’s likely that the weekly reversal will become a fact shortly.
Again, this is a very powerful bearish indication.
Similarities
From a short-term point of view, we see that the gold price moved to its 50% Fibonacci retracement level, and then moved back down below it. In other words, gold invalidated its breakout above this important resistance level, just like I’d been expecting it to.
I copied the mid-2021 topping pattern to the current situation. I marked the period from the first intraday high to the start of the decline, and I marked it from the intraday high to the intraday low of the pattern.
Those are not identical, but there is still much similarity present.
Interestingly, both patterns were preceded by similarly sharp rallies, which were preceded by a broad bottom, which in turn were preceded by a decline of about $2,000.
The difference is now that gold has moved to new intraday highs, while back in mid-2021, it hadn’t. Then again, nothing specific happened on the USD/JPY exchange rate back then, as it was only recently when the Bank of Japan moved to the hawkish camp.
The above-mentioned similarity as well as the invalidation of the breakout above the 50% Fibonacci retracement together paint a very bearish picture for gold’s short-term outlook.
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