What's In Store For Acorda (ACOR) This Earnings Season?

Acorda Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:ACOR) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2019 and full-year results on Feb 13, before the market opens.

Acorda boasts an excellent earnings surprise history, surpassing expectations in each of the trailing four quarters, the average being 68.80%. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered a positive surprise of 9.80%.

Shares of Acorda have plummeted 86.5% in the past year, underperforming the industry’s decrease of 1%.

Factors to Consider

Acorda’s Parkinson’s disease (PD) drug Inbrija was launched in the United States last February and was off to a strong start ever since. Sale of the drug has been rising with a solid sequential increase as was reported in the third quarter of 2019, a trend that most likely continued in the soon-to-be-reported quarter as well.

Meanwhile, in September 2019, Inbrija was granted a marketing authorization by the European Commission (EC). Even though it is less likely to have contributed to the to-be-reported quarter's sales, this should boost Inbrija’s sales in the future quarters.

On Jan 15, the company released preliminary results of Inbrija sales for 2019, which totaled $15.3 million.

Notably, Acorda’s lead multiple sclerosis (MS) drug Ampyra is facing generic competition in the United States. During the first nine months of 2019, sales of Ampyra tanked significantly year over year due to generic launches. This sales erosion is likely to have hurt the company’s fourth-quarter top line as well.

In September 2018, Ampyra lost its exclusivity as generics like Mylan’s (NASDAQ:MYL) authorized generic version entered the market.

For 2019, Ampyra’s preliminary sales were reported to be $162.6 million. For the full year, Acorda generated preliminary total revenues worth approximately $188 million including $178 million of net product revenues.

2020 Guidance

Last month, in addition to preliminary results for 2019, Acorda issued financial guidance for 2020.

The company expects total product net revenues in the range of $120-$150 million for the full year while total revenues are projected in the band of $130-$160 million.

Inbrija net revenues for the full year are predicted in the bracket of $35-$40 million.

For 2020, the company envisions Ampyra net revenues within $85-$110 million. Operating expenses for the period are forecast within $170-$180 million, lowered from the previous range of $180-190 million.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Acorda this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of a positive surprise. But this is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Acorda has an Earnings ESP of -5.35%.

Zacks Rank: Acorda carries a Zacks Rank #3, which increases the predictive power of ESP. However, its negative ESP leaves surprise prediction inconclusive.

Acorda Therapeutics, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are a few healthcare stocks worth considering as our model shows that these have the right mix of elements to beat estimates this time around.

Vericel Corporation (NASDAQ:VCEL) has an Earnings ESP of +11.29% and a Zacks Rank of 1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ:KPTI) has an Earnings ESP of +3.05% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is scheduled to release earnings results on Feb 13.

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