The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of October 10th through October 14th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.
The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.
Monday, October 10th
All Day JPY Bank Holiday
All Day EUR Eurogroup Meetings. The currency fell.
All Day CAD Bank Holiday
All Day USD Bank Holiday
Tuesday, October 11th
12:50am JPY Current Account 1.98 versus 1.58T expected. The currency rose.
1:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence 6 versus last 6. The currency fell.
10:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment 6.2 versus 4.2 expected. The currency fell.
10:00am EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment 12.3 versus 6.3 expected. The currency fell.
10:00am GBP MPC Member Saunders said that,
The same factors, along with the UK’s persistent current account deficit, probably also imply a lower equilibrium level for sterling’s real exchange rate. Indeed, sterling’s trade-weighted exchange rate is roughly 15% lower than a year ago, with about three-quarters of that move after the referendum. For now, these judgments seem reasonable to me. But they may well need to be revisited as the details and timetable for EU exit become clearer.
The currency fell.
All Day EUR ECOFIN Meetings – Vice President Dombrovskis stated that,
The Commission updated Ministers on the ongoing discussions on the draft directive on the fight against fraud against the EU budget and on the European Public Prosecutor´s Office. The main focus of discussions centred on the inclusion of serious VAT fraud within its scope. We know that VAT fraud causes substantial losses for national budgets, and it affects the Member States' VAT own resources contributions to the EU Budget. In 2015, these contributions amounted to over €18 billion, accounting for around 13% of the EU's total revenue.
The currency rose.
Wednesday, October 12th
8:39am CHF Governor Board Member Zurbrugg said that,
we feel comfortable with SNB policy stance for economic development, negative interest rates and forex intervention are both needed to fulfill the price stability mandate, (and that, he is) convinced dual strategy is in best interest of Swiss economy.
The currency rose.
1:00pm USD FOMC Member Dudley said that,
There is a related concern given that the federal funds rate is still close to zero at this point in the expansion. While I’m on record as saying that expansions do not simply die of old age,4 some economists are concerned that the risk of a recession is increasing. As I indicated earlier, the FOMC was able to reduce the federal funds rate by more than 5 percentage points in an effort to offset the effects of the last recession. If another recession were to happen in the next few years, it is likely that the FOMC would be unable to respond with a cut of such magnitude.
The currency rose.
2:40pm USD FOMC Member George said that,
After almost two years, I am pleased at the progress we’ve made. We expect to mark some significant developments next year. In the first half of 2017, the Faster Payments Task Force is scheduled to issue its report in two parts. The first is expected to lay out the case for faster payments in the United States, and to describe the process undertaken to evaluate proposals for improvements. The second part of its report will include their review of the specific proposals submitted.
The currency rose.
3:00pm USD JOLTS Job Openings 5.44M versus 5.79M expected. The currency rose.
7:00pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes noted that,
The Committee agreed that, in determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, it would assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment would take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee expected that economic conditions would evolve in a manner that would warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate, and that the federal funds rate was likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run.
The currency rose.
Thursday, October 13th
3:00am CNY Trade Balance 278B versus 365B expected.
1:30pm CAD NHPI 0.2% versus 0.3% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 246K versus 252K expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Import Prices 0.1% versus 0.1% expected. The currency fell.
4:00pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 4.9M versus 0.4M expected. The currency fell.
Friday, October 14th
1:30am AUD RBA Financial Stability Review noted that,
Since the crisis, the FSB and other international and national bodies have worked to address the risks posed by shadow banking, i.e. entities and activities involved in credit intermediation outside of the regular banking system, such as money market funds (MMFs), finance companies and securities lending. With the bulk of policy development now finalised, regulators’ focus has largely turned to implementation and monitoring.
The currency rose.
2:30am CNY CPI 1.9% versus 1.6% expected.
2:30am CNY PPI 0.1% versus -0.4% expected.
8:15am CHF PPI 0.3% versus 0.1% expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP BOE Credit Conditions Survey noted that,
Lenders reported that default rates on secured loans to households fell in 2016 Q3, for the thirteenth consecutive quarter, and were expected to fall again in Q4. Losses given default on secured loans to households were unchanged in Q3, and were expected to rise slightly in Q4. Default rates on other unsecured lending rose significantly in Q3, recording the largest positive balance since 2009 Q2, but were expected to fall in Q4. Default rates on credit card lending to households were reported to have increased slightly in Q3. Lenders reported that default rates on loans to small, medium and large businesses were all unchanged in Q3. Losses given default on loans to small businesses fell for a sixth consecutive quarter, but were unchanged for medium and large businesses.
The currency fell.
12:45pm GBP MPC Member Forbes said that,
It does look the days of inflation bouncing around zero are long gone...Inflation is already picking up. It will pick up even faster and we are likely to overshoot our 2 percent inflation target perhaps sharply in the next two years.
The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Core Retail Sales 0.5% versus 0.4% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD PPI 0.3% versus 0.2% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Retail Sales 0.6% versus 0.6% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Core PPI 0.2% versus 0.1% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD FOMC Member Rosengren noted that,
This recovery has been full of surprises, most of which have not been good. While one must always be cautious about assuming that current trends reflect something different from historical experience, it is important to consider whether this time has indeed been different.
The currency rose.
2:30pm GBP BOE Governor Carney said that,
Politicians have done a very good job of setting up the system. Where it can be difficult sometimes is if there are political comments on our policies as opposed to political comments on our objectives. The objectives are what are set by the politicians. The policies are done by technocrats.
The currency fell.
3:00pm USD Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment 87.9 versus 92.1 expected The currency rose.
6:30pm USD Federal Chairman Yellen has not yet spoken.
Technical Recap for the Majors This Week
Forecast: Lower.
Actual: Lower from a 1.11781 open to a 1.0990 close.
Forecast: Higher.
Actual: Higher from a 103.288 open to 104.032 close.
Forecast: Lower .
Actual: Lower from a 1.23885 open to a 1.21962 close.
Forecast: Lower .
Actual: Mildly higher from a 0.76047 open to 0.76188 close.
Forecast: Higher .
Actual: Lower from a 1.32369 open to a 1.31492 close.
Forecast: Lower .
Actual: Mildly lower from a 0.71785 open to a 0.70984 close.
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