Week in Review Part IV: Random Musings

Last Saturday, Mitt Romney cleaned up in the Nevada caucuses with 50% to Newt Gingrich’s 21% and Ron Paul’s 19%; this while Rick Santorum was focusing on the next three contests a few days later. Santorum spent his time wisely because he then romped in all three, thus shaking up the Republican race once again.

Colorado…Santorum 40  Romney 35
Minnesota…Santorum 45  Paul 27
Missouri…Santorum 55  Romney 25

“I don’t claim to be the conservative alternative to Mitt Romney,” Santorum said Tuesday night in his victory speech. “I stand here to be the conservative alternative to Barack Obama.”

Now Missouri was a ‘beauty’ contest in that delegates are to be selected later, and many say Minnesota also was more of a beauty contest though delegates were divvied up (at least in this first round of an extended process), but the fact is Rick Santorum, coupled with his win in Iowa, can claim he came out in front in four states thus far, while Mitt Romney has three wins (New Hampshire, Florida and Nevada). And when it comes to delegates, the AP and USA TODAY have it:

Romney 112
Santorum 72
Gingrich 32
Paul 9

1,144 are needed for the nomination so, yes, this thing is far from over and there is zero reason for anyone, including Newt Gingrich, to concede anything to Mitt Romney until perhaps Super Tuesday (March 6), in the case of the former speaker. Next up (aside from the results from Maine’s weeklong caucuses…where Romney is said to be in trouble) are primaries in Arizona and Michigan on Feb. 28.

For Santorum’s shoestring campaign, the three wins translated into $1 million in donations the day after, which isn’t bad, but he’s obviously scrambling to build organizations in the upcoming states. At year’s end, Santorum had a 10-member campaign payroll at a quarterly cost of $49,000, while Romney reported a 92-member staff and a quarterly payroll of $1.3 million. [Barack Obama reported a 430-person campaign staff, which cost $4.7 million for the final three months of 2011.]

So is there any chance this race goes all the way to the convention? Us political junkies would love that, but let’s wait to see where we are after March 6. Some of us are praying for chaos to allow for a Jeb Bush or Mitch Daniels to emerge as a consensus pick. [Not sure on Christie these days.]

During his first week in office, President Obama pledged to close Guantanamo, but he has yet to do so. No problem for him, however. 70% of Americans approve of the decision to keep it open, according to a new Washington Post/ABC News poll.

Albert R. Hunt / Bloomberg

“President Barack Obama is headed for political turbulence.

“That prediction isn’t based on any private polling data or inside information. It’s just common sense: National political campaigns are cyclical, and after an especially good cycle, the Democratic president is due for some downtime.

“On re-election prospects, the Obamaites are confident when they look at the state of the race, especially the Republicans. They’re showing signs of cockiness.

“Like many politicians, Obama courts trouble when he’s riding high. Following his victory in the Iowa caucuses four years ago he was a favorite to end Hillary Clinton’s campaign with a blowout victory in New Hampshire. In a debate there, he showed veiled disdain for his opponent, saying that she was ‘likeable enough.’ He then lost that primary.

“Today, the administration’s chest-thumping over the State of the Union address is illustrative. It was a good political pitch, putting Republicans on the defensive on the fairness issue. It also was devoid of governing substance, something political handlers and White House spin doctors have tried to deny.

“The president didn’t mention the Bowles-Simpson deficit commission. He appointed that panel two years ago. Then, when it issued a bipartisan report on how to fix the government’s books in December 2010, the president went silent. Privately, the White House’s explanation was that they kept quiet because they wanted to smoke out the budget proposal of the House Republicans, which was being drafted by Representative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin. That was unveiled a year ago, and the Democrats got lots of political mileage out of it….

“Over the last couple of months, Obama hasn’t been held to the same standard as the Republicans. That’s not because of any bias or media love affair with the president; it’s because his foes have provided so much ammunition about each other. That’s also part of the cycle, not likely to last.

“Another illustration of presidential hubris involved the Bush family. The White House put out a picture of a private meeting in the Oval Office on Jan. 27 that included former President George H.W. Bush and his son, Jeb, the former governor of Florida.

“The Bushes were in town for the annual black tie dinner the next night at the Alfalfa club, a gathering of business and political elites. The two featured speakers, both intended to be brief and humorous, were Obama and Jeb Bush. The president spoke to good reviews. He left before Bush spoke.

“Obama hates such dinners. Some of his aides, in particular his political adviser David Plouffe, urged him not to spend an evening mingling with the 1 percent. Yet he chose to go, and attendees said it was the first time they could recall a speaker leaving before the other side had its fun. In addition, Obama’s 87-year-old predecessor was present.

“Imagine the criticism five years ago if President George W. Bush had walked out on a dinner before Hillary Clinton spoke, with Bill Clinton in the audience.


“In 2004, Democrats expressed outrage that Karl Rove served simultaneously as both the top White House adviser and as the head of George W. Bush’s re-election campaign. That, they said, was a blatant conflict of interest. Yet today, Plouffe is performing those two functions for Obama; the only difference is that Plouffe is a little better on politics and Rove had a better grasp of policy.

“The most dangerous sign of arrogance is Team Obama’s insularity. It’s an exclusive club, with no room for outsiders. Inside the White House, that dynamic is personified by Valerie Jarrett, the president and first lady’s longtime confidante, who conducts the loyalty litmus test….

“The same generally applies to the political team. Conversations last week with five of the smartest and most experienced Democratic political strategists – none associated with the Obama campaign – yielded the same bottom line: They’re only consulted occasionally and the outreach is pro forma. If it’s a runaway election, that approach will work out fine for the White House; if it gets tight, Obama may need some other counsel.”

The above is at least the third piece I’ve cited on Obama’s aloofness and insularity over the past few months. Again, I can’t help but repeat that when I see a poll showing how much Americans like Obama, even if they don’t approve of his policies, it cracks me up. He doesn’t like you.

Obama told NBC’s Matt Lauer in a pre-Super Bowl interview, “I deserve a second term.”

It was three years ago, and only 10 days into his presidency, that Obama told Lauer that with regards to the state of the economy, “If I don’t have this done in three years, then it’s going to be a one-term proposition.”

The foreign policy of the Republican presidential candidates is a mess. George Will comments in his Washington Post column…much of which should sound very familiar to readers of “Week in Review.”

“The U.S. defense budget is about 43 percent of the world’s total military spending – more than the combined defense spending of the next 17 nations, many of which are U.S. allies. Are Republicans really going to warn voters that America will be imperiled if the defense budget is cut 8 percent from projections over the next decade? In 2017, defense spending would still be more than that of the next 10 countries combined.

“Do Republicans think it is premature to withdraw as many as 7,000 troops from Europe two decades after the Soviet Union’s death? About 73,000 will remain, most of them in prosperous, pacific, largely unarmed and utterly unthreatened Germany. Why do so many remain?

“Since 2001, the United States has waged war in three nations, and some Republicans appear ready to bring the total to five, adding Iran and Syria…GOP critics say that Obama’s proposed defense cuts will limit America’s ability to engage in troop-intensive nation-building. Most Americans probably say: Good.

“Critics say that defense cuts will limit America’s ability to intervene abroad as it has recently done. Well. Even leaving aside Iraq and Afghanistan, do Americans want defense spending to enable a rump of NATO – principally, Britain and France – to indulge moral ambitions and imperial nostalgia in Libya, and perhaps elsewhere, using U.S. materiel and competence?

“Defense Secretary Leon Panetta says that the Army should contract from 570,000 soldiers to 490,000 in a decade. Romney says that the military should have 100,000 more troops than it does. (The Army is 88,000 larger than it was before Afghanistan and Iraq.) Romney may be right, but he should connect that judgment to specific assessments of threats and ambitions.

“Romney says: ‘It is unacceptable for Iran to have a nuclear weapon,’ that if he is elected, Iran will not get such a weapon, and if Obama is reelected, it will. He also says that Obama ‘has made it very clear that he’s not willing to do those things necessary to get Iran to be dissuaded from its nuclear ambitions.’ Romney may, however, be premature in assuming the futility of new sanctions the Obama administration is orchestrating, and Panetta says Iran acquiring nuclear weapons is ‘unacceptable’ and ‘a red line for us’ and if ‘we get intelligence that they are proceeding with developing a nuclear weapon, then we will take whatever steps necessary to stop it.’ What then is the difference between Romney and Obama regarding Iran?

“Osama bin Laden and many other ‘high-value targets’ are dead, the drone war is being waged more vigorously than ever, and Guantanamo is still open, so Republicans can hardly say that Obama has implemented dramatic and dangerous discontinuities regarding counterterrorism. Obama says that, even with his proposed cuts, the defense budget would increase at about the rate of inflation through the next decade. Republicans who think America is being endangered by ‘appeasement’ and military parsimony have worked that pedal on their organ quite enough.”

I agree with Mr. Will on the numbers. On the actual policy front, however, I believe Obama’s been for the most part a disaster. As 2012 develops, this will become increasingly clear, only Republicans are incredibly weak themselves on the issue. The world isn’t black and white, which is why I spend so much time each week on the topic.

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“The Senate last passed a budget 1,106 days ago – that would be almost three years – and now the White House is telling Democrats not to bother this year either. Harry Reid will be pleased, because last week the Majority Leader said he had no plans to do so.

“Asked yesterday about the lack of a Senate budget, spokesman Jay Carney said that ‘Well, I don’t have an opinion to express on how the Senate does its business with regards to this issue.’ ABC’s Jake Tapper pressed, incredulously, ‘The White House has no opinion about whether or not the Senate should pass a budget?’

“Mr. Carney reiterated that President Obama has ‘no option,’ only that he ‘looks forward to the Senate acting on the policy initiatives contained within his budget.’ But Mr. Carney refused to say the Senate should act by even proposing a budget, let alone, you know, actually passing one.”

The Congressional Budget Act of 1974, created by Democrats, mandates that both the House and Senate submit formal budget blueprints. House Republicans continue to submit theirs.

According to the latest Gallup Poll, only 10% of Americans approve of the job Congress is doing, another record low. 86% disapprove. In October 2001, Congress registered a record-high approval rating of 84% in the wake of 9/11.

Last week I said you’d begin to see polls showing President Obama with a 50% approval rating and the latest Washington Post/ABC News survey does indeed have Obama at 50. Among the key independent bloc, 47% approve and 50% disapprove of the way he is handling his job. His positive rating among independents had dipped to as low as 34% in the fall.

In a general election matchup, Obama leads Romney 51-45 among registered voters.

A few weeks ago I pointed out the issue of President Obama signing off on a Health and Human Services ruling that under Obamacare, Catholic institutions – including hospitals – would be required for the first time ever to provide and pay for insurance coverage that includes contraception. Failure to do so results in huge fines. New York Archbishop Timothy Dolan blasted the president.

Peggy Noonan / Wall Street News

“President Obama just may have lost the election….

“In other words, the Catholic Church was told that its institutions can’t be Catholic anymore.

“I invite you to imagine the moment we are living in without the church’s charities, hospitals and schools. And if you know anything about those organizations, you know it is a fantasy that they can afford millions in fines.

“There was no reason to make this ruling – none. Except ideology.

“The conscience clause, which keeps the church itself from having to bow to such decisions, has always been assumed to cover the church’s institutions.”

So the church has been fighting back.

“If they stay strong…they will win. This is in fact a potentially unifying moment for American Catholics, long split left, right and center. Catholic conservatives will immediately and fully oppose the administration’s decision. But Catholic liberals, who feel embarrassed and undercut, have also come out in opposition.

“The church is split on many things. But do Catholics in the pews want the government telling their church to contravene its beliefs?....

“In 2008…Mr. Obama carried the Catholic vote, 54% to 45%. They helped him win.

“They won’t this year. And guess where a lot of Catholics live? In the battleground states.

“There was no reason to pick this fight. It reflects political incompetence on a scale so great as to make Mitt Romney’s gaffes a little bitty thing.

“There was nothing for the president to gain, except, perhaps, the pleasure of making a great church bow to him.

“Enjoy it while you can. You have awakened a sleeping giant.”

*On Friday, President Obama announced a birth control compromise he said would protect religious liberties and ensure that the nation’s women have access to free contraception. Obama will allow workers at institutions where contraception is not currently available because it runs counter to their beliefs, to get it directly from health insurance companies.

“Religious liberty will be protected, and a law that requires free preventive care will not discriminate against women. I understand some folks in Washington want to treat this as another political wedge issue. But it shouldn’t be. I certainly never saw it that way,” Obama said. “This is an issue where people of good will on both sides of the debate have been sorting through some very complicated questions.”

Cardinal-designate Dolan said the changes were a “first step in the right direction” but that there were too few details to comment further. [Ben Fuller / AP]
It’s too late for the president. Many Catholics who once supported him won’t forget what he was trying to do. They won’t forget the arrogance.

Editorial / New York Post

“After years of preaching the evils of ‘super PACs,’ President Obama has decided to dance with the devil – aligning himself with Priorities USA Action, a fund-raising committee that can take nearly unlimited campaign donations.

“Sure, he said last year that super PACs pose ‘a threat to our democracy’ because they’ll produce ‘a flood of attack ads run by shadowy groups with harmless-sounding names. We don’t know who’s behind these ads…who’s paying for them.’

“Never mind, he said yesterday.

“Now the White House will dispatch Cabinet officials and top advisers to work with Priorities – and Obama wants his top donors to start shelling out big-time.

“ ‘We’re not going to fight this fight with one hand tied behind our back,’ said campaign manager Jim Messina.

“To which we say: Hahahahahahahaha.”

New Jersey Republican Gov. Chris Christie has a 55% approval rating among registered voters in a Monmouth University/NJ Press Media Poll, which is sizable for a Republican in my state, but nearly half say he is more concerned with his political future than with running New Jersey. I went to see the governor at a town hall meeting in Westfield the other day and my friend and I were bored to tears and left after four dumb questions (for this kind of forum), this after Christie spent too long going into his first two years and all his achievements. Yet he turned out 600 people for a Tuesday morning.

I forgot to tell you that a few weeks earlier, I saw former New Jersey Gov. Christie Whitman, who is on the board of the new Internet-based group Americans Elect, which is looking to promote a bipartisan presidential ticket later this spring and summer. Americans Elect is supposed to gain access to the ballot in all 50 states.

I’d love a viable third party candidate this go ‘round but I don’t see how they’ll attract a top-shelf ticket, and one that can get into the debates.

As if Greece didn’t already have enough problems, as Bloomberg reported, the nation’s doctors are fighting a pneumonia-causing superbug that is resistant to most antibiotics. “The culprit is spreading through health centers already weighed down by a shortage of nurses.  The hospital-acquired germ killed as many as half of people with blood cancers infected at Laiko General Hospital, a 500-bed facility in central Athens.” The K. pneumonia bacteria (KPC as it is being dubbed) has a mutation that allows them to evade powerful drugs. Partly because of the lowest nurse-to-patient ratio in Europe, Greece has one of the highest rates of antibiotic use – and abuse – on the continent.

Just when the cruise industry needs some good PR, there’s a wave of norovirus incidents.

Prince Harry qualified as an Apache helicopter pilot after 18 months of training in the U.K. and the U.S. So Harry now has limited “combat-ready status,” which is very cool. Eight weeks of the training was in California and Arizona, carrying out exercises designed to prepare pilots for action in Afghanistan, though there is little chance Harry is going back after he served 10 weeks there in 2007-8, only to have his deployment become public.

Feb. 6 marked 60 years on the throne for Queen Elizabeth II, now 85. Queen Victoria reigned for more than 63 years.

Feb. 7 was the bicentennial of the birth of Charles Dickens. The Times (of London…which is why I call it the London Times for convenience), was around back then and in 1867, Dickens wrote a letter to the paper seeking “to refute a rumor that he was in poor health. ‘Will you allow me to state in your columns,’ he asked, ‘that the statement is wholly destitute of foundation, and that I never was better in my life?’

“Much the same might be said of Dickens’ posthumous reputation. The author enjoyed extraordinary acclaim in his lifetime. Yet, if anything, the characters that he depicted pervade public life and popular consciousness still more vividly now.

“They do so because their creator, born 200 years ago, was more than a great writer. Dickens is a central figure in the nation’s history. He illuminated an age in which England became an industrial power and a modern state, amid immense deprivation. He transformed the art of the novel from picaresque accounts of personal quests to panoramas of whole societies. In his use of social and psychological realism, he was an artistic pioneer. But beyond all these achievements, he created characters that live.

“From The Pickwick Papers and David Copperfield to his last and greatest finished work, Our Mutual Friend, Dickens portrays the consequences of discovering one’s identity. If modern readers fault him for sentimentality, they miss his insights into the nature of benevolence and evil, and the complexities of the human condition. The damaged characters of Miss Havisham in Great Expectations or Miss Wade in Little Dorrit, say, are unique in literature while being instantly recognizable in life. There lies the cause for celebration. More than almost any other English writer, Dickens holds the mirror up to nature, and shows the very age and body of the time.”

[The Times]

Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.
God bless America.

Gold closed at $1725
Oil, $98.67

Returns for the week 2/6-2/10

Dow Jones -0.5% [12801]
S&P 500 -0.2% [1342]
S&P MidCap -0.7%
Russell 2000 -2.1%
Nasdaq -0.1% [2903]

Returns for the period 1/1/12-2/10/12

Dow Jones +4.8%
S&P 500 +6.8%
S&P MidCap +9.7%
Russell 2000 +9.8%
Nasdaq +11.5%

Bulls 52.1
Bears 28.7 [Source: Investors Intelligence]