Why the U.S. dollar still reigns supreme
Days before the Iowa caucuses, the Des Moines Register released its final poll.
Mitt Romney 24 percent
Ron Paul 22
Rick Santorum 15
Newt Gingrich 12
Rick Perry 11
Michele Bachmann 7
Then the votes came in:
Romney 30,015…24.6
Santorum 30,007…24.5
Paul 26,219…21.4
Gingrich 16,251…13.3
Perry 12,604…10.3
Bachmann 6,073…5
Just a few weeks ago, Santorum registered 5 percent, or less, in most of the surveys. You can see the Des Moines Register and others pretty much nailed the final tally except for the former Pennsylvania senator’s vote and his remarkable surge.
As for Perry and Bachmann, the former has opted to focus solely on South Carolina in an attempt to restart his campaign, while Bachmann dropped out. Not that it was particularly bold, but I did say last week, “I’ll be shocked if (Bachmann) gets 7 percent and moves on to New Hampshire.”
Speaking of which, Suffolk University has a respected tracking poll and it shows:
Romney 41
Paul 18
Santorum 8
Huntsman 7
Gingrich 7
But a different survey has the Top three now at 40, 17, 11…again, with Santorum surging a bit while the others tread water. I was listening to the guy from Suffolk and he thought Santorum would peak at 11-12 percent. Romney is gaining the most from women, incidentally, and this is where Ann Romney has been a plus (I’m not a fan).
The same professor (sorry, forget his name), who made his name nailing the 2008 Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primaries, said that in ’08, Mike Huckabee won with 35 percent to Romney’s 25 in Iowa, but then Huckabee only did 11 percent in New Hampshire, this gentleman drawing the same parallels with Santorum.
After New Hampshire on Tuesday comes South Carolina, Jan. 21, and on Friday, CNN/ORC released a poll from that state.
Romney 37 percent…surprising strength
Santorum 19
Gingrich 18
Paul 12
Ah yes, it’s going to be quite an election year. When I saw Newt Gingrich on Thursday, he said he wanted to open with a statement on President Obama’s recess appointments for both the Consumer Financial Protection Board and the pro-union activist National Labor Relations Board. Gingrich said Obama’s moves were unconstitutional because the appointments were made even though the Senate isn’t actually in recess. Yes, the president has the power to make such appointments, including the three new members of the NLRB, but as the New York Post editorialized:
“Obama is the first president to declare that he, and he alone, can decide whether the Senate – which must confirm his picks – is actually meeting.
“In order to block recess appointments, the Senate intentionally has been holding pro forma sessions every few days, each of which lasts only a few seconds.
“Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid – with then-Sen. Obama’s support – did the same thing in 2007 to block any recess appointments by President George W. Bush.
“But now Obama, with Reid’s concurrence, contends that such sessions are actually ‘gimmicks’ – and that the Senate is in recess.
“So much for the separation of powers and the carefully calibrated system of checks and balances that are hallmarks of the U.S. constitutional system.
“Obama, of course, plans to run for reelection against Congress, painting it as Wall Street’s puppet.
“But what he did yesterday was no shot across the bow; it was, rather, a direct hit – with the Constitution taking the brunt of the blow.”
Robert Samuelson / Washington Post
“Could 2012 turn conventional wisdom on its head? Here’s the conventional wisdom: President Obama’s reelection is vulnerable to the weak economy and high joblessness.
Here’s what might happen: The economy gradually improves, and although unemployment stays high (exceeding 8 percent), what counts politically is the palpable sense that things are moving in the right direction. This allows Obama to argue, as he already does, that his policies are slowly repairing the economic calamity he inherited from Republicans.
“To which they respond: Obama’s anti-business rhetoric and policies have impeded recovery; the Affordable Care Act (“Obamacare”) and new regulations create uncertainties that deter hiring; and Obama hasn’t dealt with the explosion of federal debt.
“Just which narrative triumphs may well determine the election. If Obama convinces Americans that he’s set a course for a stronger recovery, then he wins. If the Republicans successfully cast his policies as producing prolonged stagnation, they win. Though the debate matters, the economy’s actual performance – for better or worse – will decide how many Americans feel. And this will depend on forces and events over which the candidates have little or no control.”
David Brooks / New York Times
“This year, Romney is trying to establish some emotional bond with the working class by waging a hyperpatriotic campaign: I may be the son of a millionaire with a religion that makes you uncomfortable, but I love this country just like you. The strategy appears to be only a partial success.
“Enter Rick Santorum.
“Santorum is the grandson of a coal miner and the son of an Italian immigrant. For years, he represented the steel towns of western Pennsylvania. He has spent the last year scorned by the news media – working relentlessly, riding around in a pickup truck to more than 370 towns. He tells that story of hard work and elite disrespect with great fervor at his meetings.
“His worldview is not individualistic. His book, ‘It Takes a Family,’ was infused with the conservative wing of Catholic social teaching. It was a broadside against Barry Goldwater-style conservatism in favor of one that emphasized family and social solidarity. While in Congress, he was a leader in nearly every serious piece of antipoverty legislation. On the stump, he cries, ‘The left has a religion, too. It’s just not based on the Bible. It’s based on the religion of self.’….
“He is not a representative of the corporate or financial wing of the party…His economic arguments are couched as values arguments: If you want to enhance long-term competitiveness, you need to strengthen families. If companies want productive workers, they need to be embedded in wholesome communities….
“If you took a working-class candidate from the right, like Santorum, and a working-class candidate from the left, like Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio, and you found a few islands of common ground, you could win this election by a landslide. The country doesn’t want an election that is Harvard Law versus Harvard Law.”
You know who I was impressed with the other day in an interview with Wolf Blitzer? Sen. Rand Paul. Not that I agreed with him, as he backed his father’s policies, but I was blown away by his superior knowledge of foreign affairs compared to just about all the Republican candidates in the field. Since father and son, though, don’t believe in a mainstream foreign policy, I was struck by how maybe it is Rand, not the father, who is the viable third party candidate someday. Rand could easily change his party affiliation to ‘independent’ and just caucus with the Republicans for now.
I was talking to a local Republican county chairman up in Plymouth and was startled by how extensive voter fraud is in New Hampshire, according to him. The state has same-day registration and all you need to do is show ID. The problem is this includes student IDs, so he said the kids run around voting multiple times, and up here that means they are voting predominantly Democrat.
So my new friend said that challengers actually do their job in New Hampshire and one guy asked a kid for different ID and the kid produced an envelope with his address on it. Then the kid realized what he had done, panicked, and ran off. What was on the envelope? It was his absentee ballot application for Massachusetts!
President Obama unveiled his plans for a slimmed-down military. Last year the administration and Congress agreed on $450 billion in cuts over the next decade, on top of earlier cuts to weapons programs, and the potential for another $500 billion in cuts next January as a result of “sequestration,” unless Congress acts on finding other ways to reduce spending $1.2 trillion, again per previous agreement as part of the summer’s debt-ceiling debate.
I’ve made it clear where I stood. There are lots of areas to cut defense spending, particularly on the procurement front. But as the Wall Street Journal editorializes, what makes this round of cuts different is the growing entitlement state.
“The administration is making a political choice and sparing Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, which are set to hit nearly 11% of GDP by 2020. And that’s before $2.6 trillion for Obamacare, which will surely cost more….
“Part of the problem is that military personnel costs are exploding on pace to exceed the entire defense budget by 2030, according to Andrew Krepinevich of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. It’s hard to make the political and moral case to reduce benefits for veterans and soldiers, but here’s where (Defense Secretary) Panetta could show mettle on Capitol Hill, especially by reforming military health care. The bulk of any defense budget is better spent on equipment, training and research….
“The real message to the world is that the Administration wants to scale back U.S. leadership. This was part of the rationale behind the White House’s reluctance to take the initiative in the Middle East last year, as well as the attempts to mollify Iran’s mullahs and Russia’s Vladimir Putin….
“President Obama ended his remarks yesterday by quoting Dwight Eisenhower on ‘the need to maintain balance among national programs.’ The line comes from his 1961 Farewell Address, better known as the ‘military-industrial complex’ speech. Mr. Obama’s new defense posture brings to mind another Eisenhower line offered two years earlier: ‘Weakness in arms often invites aggression.’”
Back to the issue of military personnel costs, the Pentagon currently spends $181 billion, a third of its budget, on this item: $107 billion for salaries and allowances, $50 billion for health care and $24 billion in retirement pay.
The park ranger killed in Mount Ranier National Park in Washington was from Westfield, New Jersey, two towns over from me. As I’ve noted many times before, there are no finer people in America than those serving in our national park service.
The debris from the Japanese tsunami, which is measured in the millions of tons and includes chunks of whole towns, is expected to hit California in 2014. Researchers say this could include shoe-encased feet. Said one to future beachcombers, “Be respectful.”
I didn’t realize Chelsea Clinton was just on a 90-day contract with NBC. Evidently, she is going to provide the network with two more scintillating stories and then it’s sayonara. Sources told the New York Post’s Page Six that Chelsea was “set up for a fall” after NBC trumpeted her deal to become a full-time correspondent. I mean we were told by Brian Williams et al that Chelsea was going to be the new force behind their “Making a Difference” series, but no one mentioned the short contract at the time.
After her debut, the Washington Post’s Hank Stuever opined:
“Either we’re spoiled by TV’s unlimited population of giant personalities or this woman is one of the most boring people of her era.”
I see a New York Times reporter is releasing a book titled “The Obamas” that doesn’t paint Michelle in a pretty light. This could be fun, though I’m not about to rush out and buy it.
Sign of the Apocalypse: I was having lunch at McDonald’s the other day here in Manchester and this guy was looking for a booster seat for his kid. What I learned in the ensuing conversation with the manager is that someone came in and just walked off with the chair they had.
Actually, there were a number of articles from around the world this week on the real apocalypse, according to the Mayan calendar, December 21, 2012, this being the end of a 5,126-year cycle, bringing the return of Bolon Yokte, a god associated with war and creation.
I haven’t begun to make special preparations, but I’m thinking it could impact the holiday shopping season some. You know, malls will be more crowded, so get your Christmas shopping done early, which actually I’ve largely done already so, hey, I am prepared. Bring on Bolon Yokte. Hope he likes beer.
-
Pray for the men and women of our armed forces, and all the fallen.
God bless America.
-
Gold closed at $1616
Oil, $101.56
Returns for the week 1/2-1/6
Dow Jones +1.2%
S&P 500 +1.6%
S&P MidCap +1.4%
Russell 2000 +1.2%
Nasdaq +2.6%
Bulls 49.5
Bears 30.5 [Source: Chartcraft / Investors Intelligence]
Mitt Romney 24 percent
Ron Paul 22
Rick Santorum 15
Newt Gingrich 12
Rick Perry 11
Michele Bachmann 7
Then the votes came in:
Romney 30,015…24.6
Santorum 30,007…24.5
Paul 26,219…21.4
Gingrich 16,251…13.3
Perry 12,604…10.3
Bachmann 6,073…5
Just a few weeks ago, Santorum registered 5 percent, or less, in most of the surveys. You can see the Des Moines Register and others pretty much nailed the final tally except for the former Pennsylvania senator’s vote and his remarkable surge.
As for Perry and Bachmann, the former has opted to focus solely on South Carolina in an attempt to restart his campaign, while Bachmann dropped out. Not that it was particularly bold, but I did say last week, “I’ll be shocked if (Bachmann) gets 7 percent and moves on to New Hampshire.”
Speaking of which, Suffolk University has a respected tracking poll and it shows:
Romney 41
Paul 18
Santorum 8
Huntsman 7
Gingrich 7
But a different survey has the Top three now at 40, 17, 11…again, with Santorum surging a bit while the others tread water. I was listening to the guy from Suffolk and he thought Santorum would peak at 11-12 percent. Romney is gaining the most from women, incidentally, and this is where Ann Romney has been a plus (I’m not a fan).
The same professor (sorry, forget his name), who made his name nailing the 2008 Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primaries, said that in ’08, Mike Huckabee won with 35 percent to Romney’s 25 in Iowa, but then Huckabee only did 11 percent in New Hampshire, this gentleman drawing the same parallels with Santorum.
After New Hampshire on Tuesday comes South Carolina, Jan. 21, and on Friday, CNN/ORC released a poll from that state.
Romney 37 percent…surprising strength
Santorum 19
Gingrich 18
Paul 12
Ah yes, it’s going to be quite an election year. When I saw Newt Gingrich on Thursday, he said he wanted to open with a statement on President Obama’s recess appointments for both the Consumer Financial Protection Board and the pro-union activist National Labor Relations Board. Gingrich said Obama’s moves were unconstitutional because the appointments were made even though the Senate isn’t actually in recess. Yes, the president has the power to make such appointments, including the three new members of the NLRB, but as the New York Post editorialized:
“Obama is the first president to declare that he, and he alone, can decide whether the Senate – which must confirm his picks – is actually meeting.
“In order to block recess appointments, the Senate intentionally has been holding pro forma sessions every few days, each of which lasts only a few seconds.
“Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid – with then-Sen. Obama’s support – did the same thing in 2007 to block any recess appointments by President George W. Bush.
“But now Obama, with Reid’s concurrence, contends that such sessions are actually ‘gimmicks’ – and that the Senate is in recess.
“So much for the separation of powers and the carefully calibrated system of checks and balances that are hallmarks of the U.S. constitutional system.
“Obama, of course, plans to run for reelection against Congress, painting it as Wall Street’s puppet.
“But what he did yesterday was no shot across the bow; it was, rather, a direct hit – with the Constitution taking the brunt of the blow.”
Robert Samuelson / Washington Post
“Could 2012 turn conventional wisdom on its head? Here’s the conventional wisdom: President Obama’s reelection is vulnerable to the weak economy and high joblessness.
Here’s what might happen: The economy gradually improves, and although unemployment stays high (exceeding 8 percent), what counts politically is the palpable sense that things are moving in the right direction. This allows Obama to argue, as he already does, that his policies are slowly repairing the economic calamity he inherited from Republicans.
“To which they respond: Obama’s anti-business rhetoric and policies have impeded recovery; the Affordable Care Act (“Obamacare”) and new regulations create uncertainties that deter hiring; and Obama hasn’t dealt with the explosion of federal debt.
“Just which narrative triumphs may well determine the election. If Obama convinces Americans that he’s set a course for a stronger recovery, then he wins. If the Republicans successfully cast his policies as producing prolonged stagnation, they win. Though the debate matters, the economy’s actual performance – for better or worse – will decide how many Americans feel. And this will depend on forces and events over which the candidates have little or no control.”
David Brooks / New York Times
“This year, Romney is trying to establish some emotional bond with the working class by waging a hyperpatriotic campaign: I may be the son of a millionaire with a religion that makes you uncomfortable, but I love this country just like you. The strategy appears to be only a partial success.
“Enter Rick Santorum.
“Santorum is the grandson of a coal miner and the son of an Italian immigrant. For years, he represented the steel towns of western Pennsylvania. He has spent the last year scorned by the news media – working relentlessly, riding around in a pickup truck to more than 370 towns. He tells that story of hard work and elite disrespect with great fervor at his meetings.
“His worldview is not individualistic. His book, ‘It Takes a Family,’ was infused with the conservative wing of Catholic social teaching. It was a broadside against Barry Goldwater-style conservatism in favor of one that emphasized family and social solidarity. While in Congress, he was a leader in nearly every serious piece of antipoverty legislation. On the stump, he cries, ‘The left has a religion, too. It’s just not based on the Bible. It’s based on the religion of self.’….
“He is not a representative of the corporate or financial wing of the party…His economic arguments are couched as values arguments: If you want to enhance long-term competitiveness, you need to strengthen families. If companies want productive workers, they need to be embedded in wholesome communities….
“If you took a working-class candidate from the right, like Santorum, and a working-class candidate from the left, like Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio, and you found a few islands of common ground, you could win this election by a landslide. The country doesn’t want an election that is Harvard Law versus Harvard Law.”
You know who I was impressed with the other day in an interview with Wolf Blitzer? Sen. Rand Paul. Not that I agreed with him, as he backed his father’s policies, but I was blown away by his superior knowledge of foreign affairs compared to just about all the Republican candidates in the field. Since father and son, though, don’t believe in a mainstream foreign policy, I was struck by how maybe it is Rand, not the father, who is the viable third party candidate someday. Rand could easily change his party affiliation to ‘independent’ and just caucus with the Republicans for now.
I was talking to a local Republican county chairman up in Plymouth and was startled by how extensive voter fraud is in New Hampshire, according to him. The state has same-day registration and all you need to do is show ID. The problem is this includes student IDs, so he said the kids run around voting multiple times, and up here that means they are voting predominantly Democrat.
So my new friend said that challengers actually do their job in New Hampshire and one guy asked a kid for different ID and the kid produced an envelope with his address on it. Then the kid realized what he had done, panicked, and ran off. What was on the envelope? It was his absentee ballot application for Massachusetts!
President Obama unveiled his plans for a slimmed-down military. Last year the administration and Congress agreed on $450 billion in cuts over the next decade, on top of earlier cuts to weapons programs, and the potential for another $500 billion in cuts next January as a result of “sequestration,” unless Congress acts on finding other ways to reduce spending $1.2 trillion, again per previous agreement as part of the summer’s debt-ceiling debate.
I’ve made it clear where I stood. There are lots of areas to cut defense spending, particularly on the procurement front. But as the Wall Street Journal editorializes, what makes this round of cuts different is the growing entitlement state.
“The administration is making a political choice and sparing Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, which are set to hit nearly 11% of GDP by 2020. And that’s before $2.6 trillion for Obamacare, which will surely cost more….
“Part of the problem is that military personnel costs are exploding on pace to exceed the entire defense budget by 2030, according to Andrew Krepinevich of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. It’s hard to make the political and moral case to reduce benefits for veterans and soldiers, but here’s where (Defense Secretary) Panetta could show mettle on Capitol Hill, especially by reforming military health care. The bulk of any defense budget is better spent on equipment, training and research….
“The real message to the world is that the Administration wants to scale back U.S. leadership. This was part of the rationale behind the White House’s reluctance to take the initiative in the Middle East last year, as well as the attempts to mollify Iran’s mullahs and Russia’s Vladimir Putin….
“President Obama ended his remarks yesterday by quoting Dwight Eisenhower on ‘the need to maintain balance among national programs.’ The line comes from his 1961 Farewell Address, better known as the ‘military-industrial complex’ speech. Mr. Obama’s new defense posture brings to mind another Eisenhower line offered two years earlier: ‘Weakness in arms often invites aggression.’”
Back to the issue of military personnel costs, the Pentagon currently spends $181 billion, a third of its budget, on this item: $107 billion for salaries and allowances, $50 billion for health care and $24 billion in retirement pay.
The park ranger killed in Mount Ranier National Park in Washington was from Westfield, New Jersey, two towns over from me. As I’ve noted many times before, there are no finer people in America than those serving in our national park service.
The debris from the Japanese tsunami, which is measured in the millions of tons and includes chunks of whole towns, is expected to hit California in 2014. Researchers say this could include shoe-encased feet. Said one to future beachcombers, “Be respectful.”
I didn’t realize Chelsea Clinton was just on a 90-day contract with NBC. Evidently, she is going to provide the network with two more scintillating stories and then it’s sayonara. Sources told the New York Post’s Page Six that Chelsea was “set up for a fall” after NBC trumpeted her deal to become a full-time correspondent. I mean we were told by Brian Williams et al that Chelsea was going to be the new force behind their “Making a Difference” series, but no one mentioned the short contract at the time.
After her debut, the Washington Post’s Hank Stuever opined:
“Either we’re spoiled by TV’s unlimited population of giant personalities or this woman is one of the most boring people of her era.”
I see a New York Times reporter is releasing a book titled “The Obamas” that doesn’t paint Michelle in a pretty light. This could be fun, though I’m not about to rush out and buy it.
Sign of the Apocalypse: I was having lunch at McDonald’s the other day here in Manchester and this guy was looking for a booster seat for his kid. What I learned in the ensuing conversation with the manager is that someone came in and just walked off with the chair they had.
Actually, there were a number of articles from around the world this week on the real apocalypse, according to the Mayan calendar, December 21, 2012, this being the end of a 5,126-year cycle, bringing the return of Bolon Yokte, a god associated with war and creation.
I haven’t begun to make special preparations, but I’m thinking it could impact the holiday shopping season some. You know, malls will be more crowded, so get your Christmas shopping done early, which actually I’ve largely done already so, hey, I am prepared. Bring on Bolon Yokte. Hope he likes beer.
-
Pray for the men and women of our armed forces, and all the fallen.
God bless America.
-
Gold closed at $1616
Oil, $101.56
Returns for the week 1/2-1/6
Dow Jones +1.2%
S&P 500 +1.6%
S&P MidCap +1.4%
Russell 2000 +1.2%
Nasdaq +2.6%
Bulls 49.5
Bears 30.5 [Source: Chartcraft / Investors Intelligence]