Week in Review Part III: Foreign Affairs

Israel: In a shocking development, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced he had formed a unity government with the main opposition party, Kadima, just a day after strongly hinting he would call an early election in September (as I noted last WIR).

The move gives the coalition 94 of the Knesset’s 120 members, a massive majority that will allow Netanyahu to push through political reform, curtail the exemption of ultra-Orthodox Jews from military service and, perhaps, renew peace talks with the Palestinians, as it pushes the prime minister’s government back to the center from the far Right.

His new partner, Kadima leader Shaul Mofaz, will become vice prime minister and regarding the issue of Iran, while Mofaz has spoken out against a unilateral Israeli strike in the past, he is a former military chief and defense minister and has a history of reversing his position on key matters.

Now, coupled with defense minister Ehud Barak, Netanyahu is able to beat back those such as former Mossad chief Meir Dagan who have gone public with their criticism of a strike.

“They call me messianic,” said Netanyahu of his critics, vowing that along with his coalition partners, all elected officials, he’d make “responsible” decisions on Iran.

Just this week, Vice President Joe Biden made clear that time was running out for Iran as the next round of negotiations rapidly approaches.
Benny Avni / New York Post

“No one should expect an Israeli attack ‘tomorrow morning,’ as Barak said recently. To start with, Netanyahu is waiting (without much hope) for the results of an American-backed negotiation with the mullahs…

“But as Biden, scrambling to catch up, acknowledged while addressing Jewish leaders yesterday (Tuesday), ‘The window has not closed in terms of the Israelis if they choose to act on their own militarily.’

“In fact, that window opened wider yesterday. Even if Israel opts to wait until after the U.S. election in November, speculation about Netanyahu’s next move is bound to rattle markets and influence global decision-makers all summer and into the fall.

“And that’s bound to seep into this country’s politics, too.”
Charles Krauthammer / Washington Post

“On June 5, (1967) Israel launched a preemptive strike on the Egyptian air force, then proceeded to lightning victories on three fronts. The Six-Day War is legend, but less remembered is that, four days earlier, the nationalist opposition (Menachem Begin’s Likud precursor) was for the first time ever brought into the government, creating an emergency national-unity coalition.

“Everyone understood why. You do not undertake a supremely risky preemptive war without the full participation of a broad coalition representing a national consensus.

“Forty-five years later, in the middle of the night of May 7-8, 2012, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shocked his country by bringing the main opposition party, Kadima, into a national unity government. Shocking because just hours earlier, the Knesset was expediting a bill to call early elections in September.

“Why did the high-flying Netanyahu call off elections he was sure to win?

“Because for Israelis today, it is May ’67. The dread is not quite as acute: The mood is not despair, just foreboding. Time is running out, but not quite as fast. War is not four days away, but it looms. Israelis today face the greatest threat to their existence – nuclear weapons in the hands of apocalyptic mullahs publicly pledged to Israel’s annihilation – since May ’67. The world is again telling Israelis to do nothing as it looks for a way out. But if such a way is not found – as in ’67 – Israelis know that they will once again have to defend themselves, by themselves….

“The wall-to-wall coalition demonstrates Israel’s political readiness to attack, if necessary. (Its military readiness is not in doubt.)

“Those counseling Israeli submission, resignation or just endless patience can no longer dismiss Israel’s tough stance as the work of irredeemable right-wingers. Not with a government now representing 78% of the country.

“Netanyahu forfeited September elections that would have given him four more years in power. He chose instead to form a national coalition that guarantees 18 months of stability – 18 months during which, if the world does not act (whether by diplomacy or otherwise) to stop Iran, Israel will.

“And it will not be the work of one man, one party or one ideological faction. As in 1967, it will be the work of a nation.”

Meanwhile, Israeli intelligence shows Iran and Hizbullah planning attacks on senior officers traveling overseas; this after the series of bombing attacks that Iran and Hizbullah are believed to have carried out in Thailand, Georgia, India and Azerbaijan. All except a bombing in New Delhi were foiled. Hizbullah is believed to be still attempting to avenge the 2008 assassination of its military commander Imad Mughniyeh.

Iran: So what are the Iranians saying as the May 23 round of talks in Baghdad approaches? A spokesman with the Foreign Ministry said:

“Some countries say they are concerned that Iran’s activities might be diverted towards non-peaceful purposes in the future. When they are talking about future speculation, how can they not be concerned about scrapping nuclear weapons at the present time?

“Some of these countries have nuclear-capable submarines they have delivered to the Zionist regime,” Ramin Mehmanparast said, alluding to transfers of German-built subs to Israel.

No doubt Iran is feeling the heat as a result of the economic sanctions, but it also seems a bit naïve in believing the European Union’s July 1 ban on Iranian crude can be easily negotiated away.

It also seems that Iran is attempting to eliminate incriminating evidence at its Parchin armed forces installation before a potential visit by the International Atomic Energy Agency that has yet to be allowed into Parchin.

Iran’s top justice official, Ayatollah Larijani, said: “The Iranian people will not retreat from the firm steps they have taken on the path to access nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, and the Westerners should put this wishful thinking out of their mind.”

Syria: Twin bombings that killed 55 people and wounded more than 350 in Damascus on Thursday not only drew wide condemnation across the world, but in all likelihood doomed the peace effort in the country. The carnage was the work of two suicide car bombers who detonated their devices near a main intelligence complex during morning rush-hour. It was the deadliest attack in the capital since the uprising against the Bashar al Assad regime began 14 months ago.

Of course the Syrian government said the attacks were a sign that the Arab state was facing foreign-backed terrorism, and regardless of your opinion, on this single incident they are probably right. Syrian television showed a man pointing to the wreckage. “Is this freedom? This is the work of the Saudis,” he said. It’s the Saudis who have advocated arming the rebels. Try al-Qaeda types instead.

The White House, through spokesman Jay Carney, said: “There are clearly extremist elements in Syria, as we have said all along, who are trying to take advantage of the chaos in that country, chaos brought about by Assad’s brutal assault on his own people.”

But Mr. Carney failed to explain why his boss has been invisible while thousands have been slaughtered.

The Kremlin said it would not yield to pressure to change its pro-Assad stance. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was quoted as saying: “Some of our foreign partners are doing practical things so that the situation in Syria explodes in literal and figurative sense.”

A leading member of the opposition said: “These bombs are not the work of opposition fighters.”

Egypt: The country held its first-ever presidential debate on Thursday and Amr Moussa and Abdel Moneim Abol Fotouh, tipped to be the two frontrunners, traded accusations over their political histories. Fotouh is the independent Islamist and former member of the Muslim Brotherhood who just picked up the endorsement of the hardline Salafists, while Moussa is the former foreign minister under ousted President Hosni Mubarak.

“How can you bring about change after being part of the former regime? Do you think the Egyptian people who revolted to bring this regime down will be eager to elect one of its former symbols?” Fotouh said.

Moussa replied: “First, I would like to tell Dr. Abol Fotouh that I was not part of the ousted regime. For the past 10 years, I have been completely disassociated from the regime.

“I had the courage to oppose the regime from within when I was foreign minister and I decided to quit when things reached a dead end. I knew the consequences of my opposition, but yet I continued to do what I thought was right,” he added.

Moussa then said of Fotouh: “I do not recall you voicing strong opinions about the former regime. Your opposition was simply linked to your affiliation to the Muslim Brotherhood. You always opposed within the framework of the Brotherhood and most of the time you were defending your group rather than standing up for the rights of the entire Egyptian people.”

Fotouh said he was proud of his past affiliation with the Brotherhood. He quit in April 2011 to run for president, saying “I wanted to be a candidate representing all Egyptians and not only one group.”

Both candidates pledged to review Egypt’s 1979 peace treaty with Israel.

So that’s more than you probably wanted to read about the Egyptian presidential debate but at least they held one. [Hussein Abdallah / The Daily Star]

Afghanistan: For the 20th time this year, an attacker wearing an Afghan army uniform opened fire on NATO troops Friday, killing one service member (as I go to post, presumably an American). The Taliban claimed responsibility.

Separately, an AP-GfK poll showed that only 27% of Americans say they support the war, a new low, with 66% opposing it. A year ago, 37% favored the war, and in the spring of 2010, the reading was 46%.

At the same time, 53% approve of Obama’s handling of Afghanistan, 42% disapprove.

Russia: President Vladimir Putin was sworn in on Monday and received the briefcase enabling him to order a nuclear strike from any location as a gift, just sayin’.

Putin pledged in a speech before 3,000 invited guests to “strengthen Russian democracy, constitutional rights and freedoms,” declaring: “I will do all I can to justify the faith of millions of our citizens. I consider it to be the meaning of my whole life and my obligation to serve my fatherland and our people.”

Russia would become “the center of gravity for the entire Eurasia” Putin also claimed, describing the nation as “reborn” after the crisis of the post-Soviet years.

By the way, I wish I had been invited, even though I’ve long predicted Putin won’t last the year. You see, the reception (only 1,000 tabbed for this, sports fans) cost $1 million and, according to the London Times, included “sturgeon in champagne sauce, fried crab and tsarist ukha, a traditional fish soup known to be a favorite of Mr. Putin’s. The Kremlin’s own premium vodka and a remarkable 5,000 bottles of 2008 Abrau Durso Russian sparkling wine were also being served.”
Mmmm…fried crab….I’m drooling….

Meanwhile, the day before Putin’s inauguration, 50,000 people took part in a protest and more than 400 were arrested, including anti-corruption blogger, Alexey Navalny. A number of protesters were injured by police, as well as about 20 cops. These were the first violent clashes between the two sides since rallies began in December.

Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov allegedly said: “(The police) were too soft. Protesters who hurt riot police should have their livers smeared on the asphalt.”

Later, appearing in front of the Duma, which approved his choice of Dmitry Medvedev as prime minister (thus completing the job swap) 299-144, Putin was his usual sarcastic, insensitive self.
David Statter / Wall Street Journal

“The violence that accompanied the inauguration of Vladimir Putin as Russian president this week is an ominous sign that Mr. Putin’s apparent desire to rule for life is leading his country toward a dangerous political confrontation….

“Dmitry Peskov, Mr. Putin’s spokesman, said he regretted that the police had not behaved more harshly. But harsh treatment may do little to shore up Mr. Putin’s dwindling support. Rising prosperity had until recently obscured the fact that Mr. Putin and a small group of cronies control an estimated 10%-15% of Russia’s gross national product….

“Another problem bred by Mr. Putin’s rule is a deteriorating economy. Crude oil and gas account for 75% of Russia’s exports. In order for him to win the presidency, Mr. Putin’s government authorized $161 billion in additional spending through 2018, increasing pensions and freezing gas prices. As a result, the government needs an oil price of $150 a barrel over the next few years to break even, while a sharp fall in price (for example to $80 a barrel) could lead to an immediate crisis.”
And you have the rise of nationalist extremism.

“In the face of all this, Mr. Putin has made attempts to endow himself with new legitimacy. In recent years, he’s been filmed riding a Harley-Davidson, singing the 1950s hit ‘Blueberry Hill,’ and photographed riding a horse bare-chested. One of his aides said he believed that Mr. Putin was sent to Russia by God, and the Russian media reported that a small female sect believes that Mr. Putin is the reincarnation of the Apostle Paul.

“None of this, however, is likely to protect the Putin regime from the challenge it now faces. Russia is a country in which the population has no respect for the political system, their rulers, or the distribution of property….

“In the best of all worlds Mr. Putin would resign, and free and fair elections, with nonpartisan monitors, would be held. But even that would not be enough. Russia needs a commission similar to the South African Commission on Truth and Reconciliation to review publicly not only the crimes of the Putin era but also crimes committed during the eight-year rule of his predecessor, Boris Yeltsin. Only this can provide a basis for democracy….

“What’s at stake is not just the country’s prosperity but its existence as a civilized society.”

I’ve said Putin will be done in by a shadowy third force, one of the corrupt hardliners he is now protecting as part of a battle between the hardliners vs. the reformers (as distinct from the opposition). Bottom line for the next few months, a crackdown on the protesters is a certainty.                                         

Meanwhile, Putin backed out of a meeting with President Obama and the other G8 leaders at Camp David, May 18-19, citing he needed to work on his new cabinet and that he was sending Prime Minister Medvedev in his stead. Analysts were skeptical about the official explanation, viewing it as a deliberate snub of Obama, as well as other G8 leaders, over their criticism of Russian elections in December and March. Plus Putin has major issues with the anti-missile defense program.

I’ve also been writing for years that you’re nuts if you’re planning on attending the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi owing to the terror threat there. This week the Russian government announced it had foiled a plot, supposedly seizing 10 caches of weapons and ammunition in the breakaway republic of Abkhazia, which is just kilometers from Sochi. As noted in the Moscow Times, “The terrorists were planning to smuggle the explosives and arms into Sochi ‘between 2012 and 2014 to use them during the preparations and during the games,’ according to the National Anti-Terrorist Committee and the Federal Security Service.”

Sochi sits in the North Caucasus region, near the Russia/Georgia border. Kathryn Stoner-Weiss, Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University, told USA TODAY:

“This is probably the start of extreme potential problems in the area with the Winter Olympics in Sochi. It’s almost the worst part of Russia to put the Games. It’s not so much because of Georgia, but the Caucasus in general.”

Russia is blaming both Chechen rebel leader Umarov and Georgia for the plot. I doubt Georgia is involved and agree with Ms. Stoner-Weiss that Russia implicated Georgia for political reasons.

And Russia suffered a tragic embarrassment with the crash of a demonstration airplane during a 50-minute flight over Indonesia. All 50 on board are presumed dead as the Sukhoi Superjet 100 crashed into the side of a volcano that was probably shrouded in fog at the time.

The jetliner was the first new model to be produced in Russia since the end of the Soviet Union and is a crushing blow to the national aerospace industry.

The Superjet’s $31.7 million price tag is one-third that of comparable short-hop jets and Russia was expecting orders of 1,000 over the next two decades. Thus the cause of the crash is critical. For the workers’ sake, I hope its pilot error.

China: It’s been flying under the radar, but a dispute over the resource-rich South China Sea between China and the Philippines could escalate at a moment’s notice. The issue is known as the Scarborough Shoal in English and, along with most of the South China Sea, is claimed by China, but the Philippines feels in their rights to not only fish it, but tap portions for the natural resources; this as China announced the China National Offshore Oil Corp. will start drilling operations in the Shoal. [I’ll have more in an upcoming “Hot Spots” column.]

On a different issue, the Global Times, a state-owned newspaper, commented on the case of activist Chen Guangcheng, who fled house arrest to seek safety in the U.S. embassy.

“External forces would like to use this to politicize and universalize some of China’s social conflicts. They want Chen’s case to become deadlocked, drawing in international attention, and becoming an issue as big as what has happened in Libya and Syria, so that they can capitalize on this opportunity to demonize China as a whole.”

The commentator, Liu Yang, said “Chen didn’t realize he was being used and his case being hyped into a national political issue. How can they be so cruel as to use a disabled person in their political games?” [Agence France-Presse]

Chen is still in a Beijing hospital after China agreed to guarantee his safety and allow him to apply for study in the United States. There are conflicting stories on the treatment of his family.

North Korea: Multiple experts told the AP that while Pyongyang has enough plutonium for roughly six bombs and has begun enriching uranium to bomb-grade levels, the North has yet to demonstrate the ability to weaponize the material.

But the state-run Korean Central News Agency read a statement that “Our military and people will thoroughly safeguard our dignity and sovereignty by further boosting defense capabilities, including nuclear deterrent, at any cost.” [Global Security Newswire]

A story on Friday, though, also from GSN, has North Korea launching another rocket before its anticipated third nuclear test.

Mexico: The murder tally in Acapulco almost tripled last year to more than 900, ranking it among the deadliest cities in the world. The Government has launched Operation Secure Guerrero, turning the town center into a virtual militarized zone. Killings are falling as a result, not that this makes me eager to finally visit.

As for the presidential election that is rapidly approaching, July 1, frontrunner Enrique Pena Nieto has a 17-point lead over Josefina Vazquez Mota. Mota is the candidate of President Calderon’s National Action Party, or PAN. A third candidate, leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, is just two points behind Mota. I apologize I haven’t kept up on this critically important vote.