Week in Review Part III: Foreign Affairs

: President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad appeared at a nuclear facility in Tehran to show off his nation’s new “breakthrough,” fuel plates that few nations have the technology to make. But the backdrop looked like it was from one of those chintzy Matt Helm series films, plus some workers were wearing face masks, others weren’t, so I’m thinking they really have a SARS epidemic, only many of the workers don’t know that. Ahmadinejad also claimed Iran added 3,000 new centrifuges at the Natanz facility, bringing the total there to 9,000, which, if true, would be significant. But U.S. officials were skeptical of both claims.

Iran also expressed renewed willingness to resume talks on its nuclear program, but the West has learned its lesson. This seems highly unlikely. [Then again, I just saw where Sec. of State Clinton said a letter from Iran to the U.S. and its allies was “one we have been waiting for.” Oh brother.]

At the same time, Iran threatened to cut off oil to six European nations ahead of their announced July 1st embargo. [While China is buying less Iranian oil due to a price dispute.]

And Iran attempted to attack Israeli diplomats in New Delhi, Tbilisi, and Bangkok with very limited success, though one Israeli injury was serious. One of the would be terrorists, most likely Hizbullah disciples operating with Iran’s help, blew his leg off with a grenade while being chased by police in Bangkok. Hizbullah was no doubt acting in retaliation for the Feb. 2008 assassination of its key military chief, Imad Moughniyeh.

Lastly, Iran threatened once more to close the Strait of Hormuz and is said to have prepared suicide boats. On this the threat is very real, nor should the West, and Israel, dismiss Hizbullah’s amateur terror attempts. No doubt they have hundreds of more qualified operatives around the world waiting for their orders.

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“Tehran officially denied involvement (in the attempted terror attacks). But three Iranian nationals are now under arrest in Thailand, another is on the lam, and a fourth is being extradited to Thailand from Malaysia. If these are the marks of a country that is ‘ready to talk’ – as former Obama administration diplomat Dennis Ross argued in a New York Times op-ed this week – we’d be interested to know what Iranian actions would qualify as evidence of belligerence. An attempt to bomb Washington, D.C. ? Oh, wait: They tried that, too.

“The larger story is that Iran is coming close to openly making war on the country it wants to wipe off the map. That’s an escalation from the more veiled (and often more deadly) warfare the Islamic Republic has waged against Israeli and Jewish targets for decades. It’s also an indication that the mullahs, far from seeking to de-escalate tensions with the West, are scrapping for a fight. They might get one.

“It is in nobody’s interest, least of all America’s, to see a regional war erupt in the Middle East. It is even less in America’s interests to back our allies in Jerusalem into a corner where they feel they have no choice other than to fight, as they did in 1967. An Iran that seeks to murder diplomats across the globe is a threat to global security. The U.S. has an even larger interest than Israel in stopping it.”

Israel: For his part, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said of the first incidents in Delhi and Tbilisi, “Today we witnessed two attempts of terrorism against innocent civilians. Iran is behind these attacks and it is the largest terror exporter in the world.”

Netanyahu blamed Hizbullah as well.

“Iran is undermining the stability of the world. Nations of the world must…draw a red line against this Iranian aggression. Aggression like this, if it is not stopped, will spread like a storm.”

Barron’s interviewed intelligence consultant George Friedman of Stratfor and I have to take issue with some of Mr. Friedman’s conclusions.

“To Friedman, the likelihood of an imminent Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities remains low (‘a one-in-four chance,’ he opined). For one thing, to be successful the action would require U.S. assistance. And that aid is unlikely to be forthcoming, especially in an election year.”

The fact that it is an election year makes U.S. assistance more, not less likely.

Friedman adds, “The task is infinitely more difficult than Israel’s air strikes that destroyed the Iraqi Osirak reactor in 1981 or the Syrian nuclear reactor in 2007…Israel has also lost all elements of surprise by its bellicose broadsides in the Western press. What’s more, if Israel learned anything from its unsuccessful 2006 war against Hizbullah in Lebanon, air-force generals always over-promise what they can deliver on.”

So Friedman is saying it’s too late. Israel will just sit back and let Iran get the bomb, whether it is end of 2012 or 2015. That’s absurd. Or I am totally misreading Netanyahu.

Friedman talks about the aftermath of any attack on Iran. Civilian casualties from Hizbullah and Hamas rocket attacks would be higher than anticipated.

They’ll be high…but not unanticipated.

Friedman says Iran will have success in closing, or dramatically slowing the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf through the Strait. I just don’t see this.

“Friedman believes the hysteria over Iran’s apparent quest to become a nuclear power has clouded rational consideration of more important geopolitical issues. Even if Iran succeeds in building some kind of nuclear arsenal.”

It’s hardly hysteria.

Amir Taheri / The Times of London…on the mindset of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei:

“(Khamenei’s) analysis is simple: the U.S. is too tired, too divided and too concerned about the global economy to launch a full-scale war against Iran. The perception that Barack Obama is a master of the art of running away reinforces Tehran’s analysis.

“With political moves and economic sanctions manifestly having no effect, the U.S. and its allies are running out of options. Soon they would find themselves with the last of the famous ‘all options on the table’: military action.

“The way Khamenei sees it, such action would be limited to bombing raids on Iran’s most vulnerable nuclear sites, such as the enrichment facility at Natanz. That would be no big deal as Tehran has transferred most of its enrichment activities to a new and air-attack-proof facility in the Fordo mountains. The Americans may also destroy some Islamic Revolutionary Guard bases. However, once all that is done, Khamenei could claim to have fought the ‘Great Satan’ and survived while the U.S. and allies would have nothing more to throw at Iran.

“Comparing himself to the Prophet Muhammad, Khamenei claims that he is about to repeat the great victories of the founder of Islam at Kheybar and Badr. Khamenei’s message is: either surrender or fight. That position is based on the Shia concept of ‘relief after hardship’ under which believers welcome suffering, even martyrdom, in the certainty that their sacrifice leads to comfort or even paradise. Rather than waiting for the worst to happen, the believer should provoke it. In fact, under Shia theology, waiting is worse than death.

“Sanctions are already hurting the people; war, even a limited one, is sure to cause more suffering. However, none of that would alter Khamenei’s behavior. He would compromise only if the survival of his regime is at stake. A limited bombing war would play into his hands. This is why he is trying to trigger it by a series of provocative acts over the nuclear issue and plots to kill Israeli, American and Saudi diplomats in several countries.”

Syria: President Bashar Assad called for a sham referendum on a new constitution for Feb. 26, a document that would allow for multiple parties in the legislature and a maximum two, 7-year terms for the president, but also gives the president sweeping powers to rule by decree and dissolve parliament. Plus, with parliamentary elections slated for 90 days after the constitution is approved, Assad would nonetheless remain in power until his term expires 2014. So he’d let the elections go through and then tell the legislators to go home.

On Feb. 24, Sec. of State Clinton has called for a meeting in Tunisia among the willing to explore ways to help the rebels, but this is now complicated by the United States’ revelation that al-Qaeda in Iraq was involved in the suicide/terror attacks in Damascus and Aleppo; exactly what Assad has claimed. Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri called on jihadists to join the fight against the Syrian president.

In the meantime, on Thursday the UN General Assembly voted 137-12 to call for an end to the violence in Syria, with Russia and China lining up with the likes of North Korea and Venezuela, as well as Syria itself. Another 17 abstained. The vote was nonbinding but at least a mild morale boost for the opposition.

But just who is the opposition? There is no unified command or leader and al-Qaeda is exploiting the civil war. Lebanon could blow at any minute, dragged into its own civil war by Syria. [Over 6,000 Syrian refugees are already in northern Lebanon.] The Gulf States are aligned against Assad, as well as al-Qaeda. The Iraqis are arming both sides, including allowing Iraqi Shiite militiamen and Iranian fighters through its border with Syria.

[We note the passing of New York Times correspondent Anthony Shadid, who died of an apparent asthma attack while on assignment in Syria. The award-winning Shadid was just 43. I quoted him last week in a bit on Libya.]

Lebanon: Former Prime Minister Saad Hariri, speaking from Paris, called on Hizbullah to begin to surrender its arms to Lebanese authorities and “relieve Lebanon and all Lebanese of the danger of violence, and relieve the state of the danger of collapse. Let Hizbullah and all Lebanese work for the triumph of the state and for Lebanon to remain a pioneer among Arabs in the Arab Spring.”

At the same time, Hariri said:

“Israel is our enemy and a danger to us all which we should all face. Let us all defend our country and win within the confines of the Lebanese state. But when the weapons, under the pretext of fighting Israel, become a weapon to fight each other and eliminate the state, then it only serves Israel and no one but Israel.”

Hariri is recovering in Paris after a skiing accident and promised to return to Lebanon soon.

Libya: The nation is concerned about the pronouncements of one of Muammar Gaddafi’s sons, Saadi, who warned in a television interview from Niger that his family’s supporters were planning attacks on the interim leadership. Niger refuses to extradite Gaddafi back to Libya, let alone other surviving members of the family. Libya itself remains highly unstable with no coherent institutions, including the courts and a police force. Some say it’s even more corrupt than during Gaddafi’s time.

Torture, as previously reported, is widespread.

Egypt: President Obama’s new fiscal 2013 budget contains $1.3 billion in military aid for Egypt, along with $250 million for economic assistance, the same level as 2012.
“Our goal is to provide the necessary funds. It’s obviously clear to all of us that we have issues we need to work through, and we’re working very aggressively to do so,” said Deputy Secretary of State Tom Nides. “But this budget reflects our commitment and our desire to fully fund this initiative.”

It goes without saying that Congress will have a voice in any disbursements and right now, Egypt doesn’t deserve a dime.

Likewise with the Palestinians, who stand to receive significant aid as well, though off previous levels, but this depends on the role of Hamas in any new Palestinian government.

Pakistan: Prime Minister Gilani was indicted on Monday for contempt of court, the Supreme Court, in a move that could disqualify him from holding office. If convicted of refusing to re-open a corruption case against President Zardari, Gilani faces six months in prison.

Afghanistan: In a positive step, at least on paper, Afghan officials are attempting to rid the army of Taliban infiltrators by ordering soldiers with families in Pakistan to either go home or move their relatives to Afghanistan.

But as the Washington Post’s Kevin Sieff reports, “the ultimatum could force painful choices for thousands of Afghan troops, and it is likely to stoke ethnic tensions just as the country’s leadership is seeking a negotiated end to the war. Purging members of the military with family in Pakistan also has the potential to aggravate long-troubled relations between Afghanistan and its eastern neighbor.”

The issue is when the soldiers return home to Pakistan on leave, it is a fact many are then influenced by Pakistani militants to return and kill NATO forces, or launch attacks against government troops under cover of being in the military. At least 58 Western military personnel were killed in 26 attacks by Afghan soldiers or police between May 2007 and May 2011.

Meanwhile, President Hamid Karzai arrived in Pakistan to explore how the Pakistanis can help the peace process between the Karzai government and the Taliban. Heretofore, the Taliban has said they would talk only to the Americans, describing Karzai as a “puppet” leading a “puppet government.”

China: Vice President Xi Jinping, the next president of his country, is nearly finished with his trip to the U.S. as I write. During his visit to Washington, both sides staked out their positions, though without fireworks. Among the issues discussed with President Obama, Vice President Biden and Sec. of State Clinton, Xi said he had a “candid exchange” regarding human rights.

“I stressed that China has made tremendous and well-recognized achievements in the field of human rights over the past 30-plus years, since reform and opening up. Of course, there is always room for improvement when it comes to human rights,” Xi added.

I’ll say. Like why has China been on such a mission lately to arrest dissidents, especially ahead of Xi’s visit? It’s nonsensical.

President Obama said he “welcomed China’s peaceful rise,” but added: “We want to work with China to make sure that everybody is working by the same rules of the road when it comes to the world economic system. That includes ensuring that there is a balanced trading flow not only between the United States and China but around the world.”

Xi signaled he wants to work with the U.S. on foreign policy issues, but he also called on Washington to recognize China’s one-state policy when it comes to Taiwan, as well as Tibet.

“China welcomes the United States playing a constructive role in promoting the peace, stability and prosperity of the Asia-Pacific region. At the same time we hope the U.S. side will truly respect the interests and concerns of countries in the region, including China.”

So did Xi’s visit narrow the “trust gap” between our two nations? Not likely. Xi is, however, limited in what he can do until he formally takes charge end of the year and early 2013, in a staged process. I’m optimistic he is someone the United States can deal with.

Lastly, “Linsanity” creates a problem for Beijing, the New York Knicks Jeremy Lin having a Taiwanese background, as well as being a devout Christian. Chinese Central Television has apparently stopped showing Lin’s games as quickly as it started showing them owing to the presence of Taiwanese flags, though CCT covered Taiwan’s presidential election, where obviously Taiwan flags were everywhere. You can imagine how Lin is being covered on the island. He’s leading every newscast on days the Knicks play.

North Korea: My this place has been quiet following the mourning period after the death of Kim Jong-il and the elevation of his son, “Great Successor,” Kim Jong-un.

The transition, we’re to assume, is going smoothly, but Kim has one primary challenge. How to feed his people? Some say the North faces a 700,000-ton grain shortage, which would mean 1/3 of the people starve. Kim needs to be able to deliver the food before he can go forward with his reform plan, whatever that is. But both the U.S. and South Korea aren’t in the food giving mood these days.

Russia: Just two more weeks before the March 4 presidential vote and the question remains, can Putin capture 50% and avoid a run-off? He has zero opposition. Communist Party veteran Gennady Zyuganov will probably finish second but with no more than 10% of the vote, according to the polls. So there’s no question Putin emerges the winner, eventually, it’s just how long does he then remain in office? I’m long on record as saying he’ll be removed. More and more are coming around to my thinking.

It also needs to be said that Putin’s anti-American rhetoric ahead of the election is despicable. But then as one political analyst told the Washington Post the other day, “Putin is choosing worse relations with the West to keep himself in power. Of course it’s a KGB mentality.”

France: President Nicolas Sarkozy formally announced his campaign for reelection, with the first round of voting April 22, and then the top two vote-getters squaring off May 6. March 16 is the deadline for qualifying, which pertains to the likes of National Front candidate Marine Le Pen, who at last word still hadn’t qualified but it’s assumed she eventually will. In the latest Ifop poll, Socialist Francois Hollande has seen his lead dwindle, 30% to Sarkozy’s 25%. Le Pen is third at 17.5% and Centrist Francois Bayrou at 12.5%.

In a rather bizarre situation, German Chancellor Merkel is supporting Sarkozy, as Hollande has said that if he’s elected, he’ll want to renegotiate any EU treaties France is party to, especially as it pertains to the debt crisis. It’s not clear Hollande would even be able to do this.

Sarkozy will campaign on being tough on immigration and welfare. He is not helped by a general mood across Europe that has led to regime change in Spain, the U.K., Ireland, Portugal and Hungary.

Germany: Chancellor Merkel was forced to cancel a visit to Italy on Friday because of a scandal involving President Christian Wulff, a home loan deal that included bullying a paper not to run the story. Wulff, a member of Merkel’s center-right Christian Democrat party, then resigned.

While the president is mostly a figurehead, he is also supposed to be a moral compass for the nation, yet he’d become a laughingstock for the press. The scandal comes at an obviously bad time for Merkel and will hurt her in state elections later this year.

Britain: Prime Minister David Cameron traveled to Edinburgh to try and get the Scots to abandon their idea of independence, but talks went badly. Alex Salmond, Scotland’s First Minister, wants a referendum on independence in 2014. Cameron wants one sooner, gambling it would be defeated.

Venezuela: President Hugo Chavez will have a challenger in the October election, Henrique Capriles, a 39-year-old who handily won a primary last Sunday.

“This is a country in crisis,” he said. “If there was one message people all across Venezuela gave me, it was they are exhausted by confrontation and division. I’ll be a president for Venezuelans of all colors, not just red ones,” referring to the red shirts worn by Chavez supporters.

Capriles wants to retain Chavez’s social programs, but run a less corrupt government and reduce crime, which has been soaring. [19,400 murders last year compared to 8,000 in 2000.]

Capriles is looking to model his approach after former Brazilian President Luiz da Silva, who used welfare programs to reduce poverty and increase consumption, which, together with increased education opportunities, raised living standards.

Honduras: The descriptions of the prison fire in Comayagua are beyond horrible. In the world’s deadliest such incident in a century, 358 are confirmed dead, with many bodies found lying on top of each other, burned beyond recognition. Most of the victims had not even been charged with crimes yet.

There were only 12 guards on duty when the fire broke out, with 856 prisoners packed into barracks built to accommodate 400.