After a round of soft inflation data triggered a buy-everything relief rally, Wall Street will focus on Fed speak and a plethora of data points that might show the economy remains resilient. The key economic readings include manufacturing activity, retail sales and housing data.
There will be no shortage of appearances by the Fed this week. Lael Brainard and John Williams speak on Monday, while Tuesday includes speeches by Patrick Harker, Lisa Cook and Michael Barr. Wednesday brings Williams, Barr, and Christopher Waller, and on Thursday we will hear from James Bullard, Michelle Bowman, Loretta Mester, Philip Jefferson and Neel Kashkari.
In addition to a swathe of economic releases, traders will also closely monitor big retail earnings from Walmart (NYSE:WMT), Target (NYSE:TGT), Macy’s (NYSE:M) and Kohls (NYSE:KSS). We should learn more about the health of the consumer and if we should expect a further easing of prices as we enter the holiday season.
EU
It’s a relatively quiet week for the EU, with the two standout economic releases being flash GDP and final HICP. With the economy facing a recession, the GDP data will be an interesting insight into how quickly growth is slowing going into an uncertain winter. The inflation data will naturally be of interest but it may take a significant revision to really grab investors’ attention.
The autumn statement has been a long time coming, it feels. The markets have calmed down a lot since the ridiculous mini-budget but it will still take time for the government to regain credibility and the confidence of the markets. It starts next week and all eyes will be on Parliament as we learn how the new government plans to balance the books while not piling more misery on the economy.
The Bank of England monetary policy report hearing next week is another highlight but there’s also a lot of economic data due. The path for interest rates remains uncertain so it’s not just what policymakers have to say that matters, it’s whether the data allows them to slow the pace of tightening going forward as they so clearly want to do. CPI on Thursday is the obvious highlight but there’s plenty more throughout the week.
Russia
A quiet week with no economic data of note.
South Africa
Another quiet week with the only economic release being retail sales on Wednesday.
Turkey
No major economic releases next week, with investors still focused on the central bank and inflation.
Switzerland
Tier-three data dominate next week. Focus remains on what the Swiss National Bank will do in December, with Chair Thomas Jordan acknowledging on Friday that monetary policy isn’t restrictive enough to bring inflation back into the range of price stability over the medium term. The risk of a pre-meeting rate hike remains.
Weeks of speculation around China’s commitment to its zero-COVID policy have spurred a recovery in local stocks and we may be about to get more information on what that will entail. A relaxation of quarantine measures has been announced in recent days and a press briefing is now reportedly scheduled for Saturday. At the same time, China is seeing a steady rise in COVID cases resulting in more restrictions and mass testing.
China’s October retail sales, industrial production, and investment data will be released next week. The PBOC is also expected to keep its one-year medium-term lending facility rate at 2.75% in November.
India
A key inflation report could show pricing pressures are easing, which might allow the RBI to be less aggressive with its tightening path. Headline inflation is expected to ease from 7.4% to 6.7%.
Australia and New Zealand
The focus for both Australia and New Zealand might stay on China and its weakening outlook due to its struggles with COVID.
Australian employment data is expected to show job growth continues, while unemployment remains at 3.5%. Wage pressures in the third quarter are expected to rise, but some of that is attributed to the increase in the minimum wage.
In New Zealand, house sales data and producer prices will be released.
Japan
Japan’s third-quarter GDP reading is expected to show significant weakness as import costs skyrocketed. Japan’s core inflation is also expected to surge from 3% to 3.5%, which should clearly weigh on consumer spending. Given the weakness in the U.S. dollar, the Bank of Japan might save its ammunition and hold off intervening anymore in the foreign exchange market.
Singapore
It is expected to be a quiet week with the exception of non-oil domestic export data.