- Federal Reserve could be cautious as data continues to show economic resilience
- BoE may raise rates for the last time in this cycle
- BoJ eyed for more clues on interest rates after recent hints
US
The main event of the week will be the September FOMC meeting. Powell and Co. are expected to keep rates steady but may still signal one more rate increase is coming. Too many upside surprises with service/jobs/consumer readings will keep the Fed upbeat on the economy, forcing them to revise their GDP forecasts and to price in one more rate hike.
Investors will also pay close attention to a steady dose of housing data. On Tuesday, the release of both building permits and housing starts should show the housing market is stabilizing. On Thursday, weekly jobless claims are expected to show the labor market slowdown is slowly happening and existing home sales are steadying. The key economic release of the weak is the flash PMIs, which are expected to show the economy is losing momentum.
Eurozone
The ECB probably brought an end to its tightening cycle at its September meeting but it doesn’t end there, with traders now switching their focus to when the easing cycle will begin. Lagarde was keen to stress that they could hike again if necessary but the likelihood is that they won’t.
Final HICP inflation data will be of interest on Tuesday, although revisions are not common and when they do happen, they’re usually small. Flash PMIs at the end of the week for the eurozone, Germany, and France will also be eyed.
UK
It feels like a pivotal week for the UK, with inflation figures for August being released on Wednesday, one day before the Bank of England rate decision. While the central bank is believed to be near the end of its tightening cycle – in part due to the comments from policymakers in front of the Treasury Select Committee recently – one more on Thursday looks highly likely.
And the inflation data a day earlier is not expected to complicate the discussion, with the headline CPI seen rising to 7.1% – driven by energy prices as we’ve seen elsewhere – and the core reading falling slightly to 6.8%. I can’t imagine that will inspire a majority to declare the job done or even consider pausing just yet. Retail sales and flash PMIs will also be released on Friday.
Russia
A quiet week following the CBR meeting on Friday, at which the central bank raised the Key Rate by another 100 basis points to 13%. Resurgent inflation and a slumping rouble are driving the central bank’s tightening efforts and more may be needed. PPI data on Wednesday will be eyed for signs of price pressures cooling, something we haven’t seen much of yet. We’ll also hear from various CBR policymakers throughout the week which will be interesting under the circumstances.
South Africa
The SARB is one of the few central banks that is not expected to raise interest rates next week, with the Repo Rate seen staying at 8.25%. Inflation data released a day earlier could spark a more lively debate but with headline and core both at 4.7% – well within the 3-6% target range – it probably won’t change the outcome. Retail sales figures will also be released on Wednesday.
Turkey
The CBRT meeting on Thursday brings a wide array of possibilities. Markets are expecting another 5% rate hike, taking the Repo Rate to 30% but expectations will vary massively. With inflation at almost 59% and the lira near record lows, there’s clearly a lot more to do to clean up the mess left by the previous Governor.
Switzerland
Inflation is back below 2% – 1.6% in August – and yet the SNB is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday. It’s expected to be the final hike in the cycle, leaving the Policy Rate at 2%, with the first cut not priced in until late next year.
China
The only data to focus on will be the PBoC decision on the 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates on Wednesday. After they left the 1-year medium-term lending rate unchanged at 2.50% on Friday following a reduction on the commercial banks’ reserve requirements ratio by 25 basis points, it is likely that the 1-year and 5-year loan prime rate rates will remain unchanged at 3.45% and 4.2% respectively.
Chinese economic data recently has started to improve. Retail sales in August rose 4.6% y/y, above the consensus of 3%, and surpassing July’s 2.5%; the strongest pace of growth since May. August’s industrial production also managed to beat expectations of 3.9% with a growth of 4.5% y/y; the highest reading since April.
All things considered, the latest set of economic data suggests that the risk of a deflationary spiral in China has abated by another notch.
India
No key data releases.
Australia
On Tuesday minutes of the recent RBA meeting will be released. At the last monetary policy meeting, the RBA extended its interest rate pause at 4.1% for the third consecutive meeting. Market participants will be looking for more clues on whether there will be further hikes after the latest jobs data rebounded following a surprise drop in July.
Next up, flash services and manufacturing PMIs for September will be released on Friday. A deeper contraction in the services PMI is expected, falling to 46.5 from 47.8 in August. That would be the third consecutive month of contraction in the services sector. Meanwhile, manufacturing is expected to remain almost unchanged at 49.5 versus 49.6 in August.
New Zealand
Two key data releases to take note of. Firstly, Q2 GDP on Thursday could see a dip to 1.2% y/y from 2.2% in Q1. That would be the weakest annualized quarterly growth since Q2 2022.
Balance of trade data for August is due on Friday with the trade deficit expected to narrow slightly to NZ$-0.9 billion from NZ$-1.11 billion in July. Imports are seen falling to NZ$6.1 billion from NZ$6.56 billion recorded in July.
Japan
A pivotal week with inflation data and the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision. After BoJ Governor Ueda’s recent “quiet exit” comment from the current ultra-easy monetary policy stance, expectations for an earlier exit have dialed up with the first interest rate hike seen as early as Q1 2024.
Therefore, the upcoming inflation numbers for August out on Friday will be scrutinized closely. The core inflation rate is expected to be almost unchanged at 3% y/y versus 3.1% in July. That would be the eighteenth consecutive month that it exceeds BoJ’s target of 2%. Interestingly, the core-core inflation rate (excluding fresh food & energy) is expected to accelerate further to 4.4% y/y in August from 4.3% in July.
The BoJ’s monetary policy decision will be on the same day. No change is expected after the “flexible” yield curve control policy on the 10-year JGB yield was enacted at the previous meeting. No release of the latest economic forecasts for Japan, hence all ears will be on Ueda’s press conference for hints on how confident he is on the inflation trajectory.
Singapore
Balance of trade data for August will be out on Monday with export growth expected to be still in contractionary mode albeit at a slower pace, -15.8% y/y from -20.2% in July. This would be the 11th straight month of contraction.
See this week's economic calendar