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Weak Recovery Doesn't Offset Wednesday's Losses

Published 05/14/2021, 02:35 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

The selling we have seen had much in common with that of February's, and because of that, what we are looking at is the development of trading ranges which will maintain a neutral outlook until there is a breach of March swing lows. 

The NASDAQ is perhaps the most vulnerable given prior strength, but it has started to underperform relative to the Russell 2000 as momentum moves into bearish territory but is not yet oversold.

COMPQ Daily Chart

The S&P recovered from its 50-day MA but the break of trendline will take more than one day to resume the prior trend. The index is outperforming the Russell 2000 despite the losses. 

SPX Daily Chart

The Russell 2000 has been range bound since February and Thursday's recovery to Wednesday's losses occurred within the context of this trading range. Until there is a break from this range there is little to get excited about.

IWM Daily Chart

Selling has stolen the headlines, but the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have been range bound for most of 2021, until this range is broken we won't know the direction of the trend.

Latest comments

If we test ~ 3950 how far below that is the next support level? From a broad market standpoint, I see only volatility and no correction has yet happened. If intrest rates stay muted how high do we go? Can the 10 year maintain it's benign relationship with SPX? Is there any model that can be used to determine how long it will take the US economy to absorb excess cash that has been thrown at a pandemic?
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