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USD/JPY Rises in Subdued Trading

By MarketPulse (Kenny Fisher)CurrenciesNov 25, 2022 06:03AM ET

www.investing.com/analysis/usdjpy-rises-in-subdued-trading-200632787

By MarketPulse (Kenny Fisher) | Nov 25, 2022 06:03AM ET

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USD/JPY

+1.97%

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USD/JPY has reversed directions and posted gains on Friday after three straight losing sessions. The yen is trading at 139.39, up 0.54% on the day. US markets are open for limited hours due to the Thanksgiving holiday, and there are no US releases on the schedule.

Tokyo inflation hits 40-year high

The caption above may sound dramatic, but inflation in Japan is far from the levels we see elsewhere, such as double-digits in the UK and the eurozone. Still, Japan finds itself dealing with rising inflation after decades where deflation seemed a permanent part of the economic landscape. Tokyo Core CPI rose to 3.6% in November, nudging above the consensus of 3.5% and 3.4%. This marked the highest reading since April 1982.

There’s no arguing that core inflation isn’t accelerating – Tokyo Core CPI has strengthened for six months and BOJ Core CPI for the ninth consecutive month. This extended uptrend belies BOJ Governor Kuroda’s insistence that cost-push inflation is only temporary and that an ultra-accommodative policy is needed to ensure that inflation becomes sustainable.

The BOJ is not showing any inclination to change policy and the recent improvement in the yen means one less headache, as the need for a currency intervention has diminished. It’s likely to be business as usual for the BOJ until the spring of 2023, with two key developments on the calendar – wage negotiations and a new governor for the central bank.

The Federal Reserve remains in a hawkish mode, sort of. The Fed’s stance, reiterated in this week’s minutes, remains somewhat mixed. On the one hand, the Fed has signaled that it will reduce the size of rate hikes “soon,” and the markets have priced in a ‘modest’ 50 bp hike in December after four consecutive 75-bp increases.

At the same time, some Fed members are projecting that the terminal rate will be higher than previously expected. This mixed message has created uncertainty about what it means for the US dollar – will “lower for longer” raise risk sentiment and weigh on the dollar, or will investors view the Fed as remaining hawkish and stick with the US dollar? We’ll have to wait and see how the markets answer this question.

USD/JPY daily chart.

USD/JPY Technical View

USD/JPY faces resistance at 139.62 and 140.37
There is support at 138.43 and 137.19

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1D1W1M6M1Y5YMax

US 30	33,910.0	-143.9	-0.42%
US 500	4,134.3	-45.5	-1.09%
Dow Jones	33,926.01	-127.93	-0.38%
S&P 500	4,136.48	-43.28	-1.04%
Nasdaq	12,006.96	-193.86	-1.59%
S&P 500 VIX	18.33	-0.40	-2.14%
Dollar Index	102.823	+1.248	+1.23%

Crude Oil WTI	73.23	-2.65	-3.49%
Brent Oil	79.82	-2.35	-2.86%
Natural Gas	2.385	-0.071	-2.89%
Gold	1,877.70	-53.10	-2.75%
Silver	22.390	-1.225	-5.19%
Copper	4.0312	-0.0598	-1.46%
US Soybeans	1,532.00	-1.00	-0.07%

U.S. 10Y	3.519	+-0.013	+-0.37%
U.S. 30Y	3.616	+-0.011	+-0.31%
U.S. 5Y	3.6520	+-0.0140	+-0.38%
U.S. 3M	4.6593	+0.0003	+0.01%
US 10Y T-Note	114.42	-1.12	-0.97%
Euro Bund	137.79	-1.61	-1.15%
10-2 Yield Spread	-76.93	-6.74	9.60%

Apple	154.50	+3.68	+2.44%
Alphabet A	104.78	-2.96	-2.75%
Tesla	189.98	+1.71	+0.91%
Amazon.com	103.39	-9.52	-8.43%
Netflix	365.90	-0.99	-0.27%
Meta Platforms	186.53	-2.24	-1.19%
Bank of America	36.43	+0.30	+0.83%

	Interest Rates	Next Meeting
FED	4.75%	Mar 22, 2023
ECB	3.00%	Mar 16, 2023
BOE	4.00%	Mar 23, 2023
SNB	1.00%	Mar 23, 2023
RBA	3.10%	Feb 07, 2023
BOC	4.50%	Mar 08, 2023
RBNZ	4.25%	Feb 22, 2023
BOJ	-0.10%	Mar 10, 2023
CBR	7.50%	Feb 10, 2023
RBI	6.25%	Feb 08, 2023
PBOC	3.65%
BCB	13.75%	Mar 22, 2023

USD/JPY Rises in Subdued Trading

Tokyo inflation hits 40-year high

USD/JPY Technical View

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