BIAS: We should see a correction from 103.93 towards 103.19-40 before higher again
Resistance: 103.93-07 104.29 104.54 104.75-80
Support: 103.55-60 103.32-40 103.05-19 102.90
MAIN ANALYSIS: Yesterday saw an acceleration which I hadn't expected quite so quickly. It is now approaching the high-end of the 103.74-93 projection area. Allow for 104.07. From here I suspect a correction back to 103.19-40 approx. However, note that this could be a longer correction in terms of time and potentially complexity. Therefore we shall have to take note of the structure on the way down. If in 3-wave then we may see a flat or expanded flat. Otherwise a series of ABC's would be slower but once completed, would trigger more direct gains.
COUNTER ANALYSIS: A break back below 103.00 would risk a retest of 102.60-70. Below would imply extension back to 102.51 and 102.30-35, but shouldn't break below 102.13.
MEDIUM TERM ANALYSIS:
18th August: Despite Friday's setback a still see a more bullish structure that should initially reach 103.26-52, followed by 103.73-93 but eventually reach 104.54 at least. There is a higher target at 104.97 but we'll have to judge by the intervening development to judge whether it can be reached.
Only back below 101.25-50 would threaten the 101.06-08 and possibly even 100.75-82 lows.