The USD/JPY has probably completed the second leg of a 'measured move' – or zig-zag pattern- off the May 21 lows; with the lengths of waves A and C now equal. There has already been some bearish action following the completion of this move, and this will probably continue at least temporarily, despite the fact that the very short-term trend is up. It is quite possible that a break below the 102.43 lows could lead to a move down to the 50-day MA and the lower border of the large consolidation – or broadening pattern - at 102.20.
Off course its also possible the pair could continue sideways, but that very much depends on the data out today from the ECB and tomorrow for Non-Farm Payrolls; if these cause volatility it could breakout either way. However, given the very short term trend is up, a break higher, above 102.78 is expected; the problem is, there is limited upside potential given formidable resistance lies only 10 pips higher at 102.88 from the R1 monthly pivot.