Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
24 Mar 2016 01:14GMT
USD/JPY - The dollar briefly dipped to intra-day low of 112.29/30 after the release of BoJ minutes before staging a strong rebound. Bank of Japan policymakers engaged in heated debate on the pros and cons of their decision in January to adopt negative interest rates, with one even saying it was preferable to roll it back, a summary of their opinions at the March 14-15 rate review showed today.
BoJ meeting summary (March 14-15):
The balance risks to Japan, and the overseas economies remain tilted to downside and while markets remain unstable at the start of year that has no disruption in Japan's economy.
Their exports, production are weak so this may affect capex, together with weak wage growth, data on inflation expectations are also falling; chances of consumer inflation excluding volatile food, energy above 1 pct has diminished.
Impact on negative rate policy is exerting the intended effects and that is preferable than to abandon it, but rolling it back now would erode confidence in BoJ policy so for time being it should be maintained.
Also, the Negative rate policy has not spurred portfolio rebalancing effect as much as expected, and with all the drawbacks of negative rates, such as giving market the impression that BoJ is reaching limits to Japanese Government Bond buying, are materialising.
Again, negative rate policy has strengthened deflationary mindset by causing public anxiety on outlook, now offering exemptions to negative rate policy could heighten market volatility.
Communication with markets has become very difficult as the markets are beginning to price further BoJ action and they are aiming for 'surprise' effect which heightened uncertainty on what could trigger BoJ action, that heightened market instability.
MOF rep will watch the markets closely, coordinating with global community and the communique of Feb G20 finance leaders' meeting will also include on the factors which Japan considered important.