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USD/CHF: Looking For Losses

ByIan Copsey
Published 08/15/2013, 01:25 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
BIAS:

We should remain looking for losses but not yet directly.

Resistance: 0.9355-58 0.9377 0.9389 0.9406
Support: 0.9321-32 0.9305 0.9280-85 0.9258-66

MAIN ANALYSIS: We did see a move up to 0.9367 and even 0.9377. However, I do feel that we should have seen the final high but, to be cautious, I'll allow for 0.9406. Ideally we should see direct losses now and down to 0.9321-32 and I suspect there may be a risk to as low as 0.9305-15. Also note the 0.9280-85 support that could cause a reaction higher. The expected correction is one of those "unknowns" but the 0.9345-55 congestion area looks like a high risk area. Stops need to be placed above the 0.9377 high. Once this begins to move lower with more directness we should see the 0.9244 corrective low and later below towards the 0.9174 low.

COUNTER ANALYSIS: A direct break above 0.9377 would concern and risk follow-through to the 0.9400-20 area. This could still hold and see a reversal back lower. Only above there note the 0.9444 and 0.9477 resistance levels.

MEDIUM TERM ANALYSIS:
15th August: The correction was a bit deeper than I had expected but this is in a position where the retracement can be up to 100% and even then there is the chance this may be a recycling - thus a high between 0.9400-20. However, I feel we have seen an initial move lower and while the early stages are still likely to be choppy I am expecting losses to move below 0.9280-85 to retest the 0.9174 low and later to the 0.9174 low.

Only direct back above 0.9425-50 would concern and suggest further gains and potentially an even more complex consolidation...

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