USDCHF has been in larger corrective uptrend since August’11 and it could test the 1.000/1.0700 resistance on multi-month basis (watch for strong 2005 monthly resistance line). The pair had completed a wave (W) at 0.9975 (Jul’12 high) and the current wave (X) could test the strong 0.9040/0.8930 support in coming weeks where medium-term bulls may fight back. The 0.9655/0.9810 resistance needs to be cleared to renew the uptrend.
The pair has attempted a wave B corrective rally from 0.9235 but the rally has fizzled at 0.9440. We view that the pair is still in wave B correction which may be unfolding in an irregular flat correction. The current wave [b] is likely to test Fibonacci support zone at 0.9180/0.9150 before attempting a wave [c] rally. A reversal above 0.9305/0.9375 could refocus on 94.40 ahead of tough resistance at 0.9505/0.9610. A break below 0.9150 however extends the bear run toward 0.9100/0.9040.