USD/CHF has been in a larger corrective uptrend since August ’11 and it could test the 1.000/1.0700 resistance on multi-month basis (watch for strong 2005 monthly resistance line). The pair had completed a wave (W) at 0.9975 (Jul’12 high) and the current wave (X) could test the strong 0.9040/0.8930 support in coming months where medium term bulls may fight back. The 0.9635/0.9810 resistance needs to be cleared to renew the uptrend.
The recovery from 0.9080 appears to be short lived as the pair failed at key resistance in a corrective ABC pattern. Bears are attempting to renew by pushing the pair below the broken downtrend line. Downside focus is now on 0.9190/0.9180. A break below would retest the strong 0.9100/0.9080 support (Holding the support would allow for further consolidation while a break would signal a fifth wave). The 0.9300/0.9330 resistance looks to cap in the immediate term ahead of 0.9390. A move above, however, targets 0.9440/0.9515 next.