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U.S. Dollar Outlook And 3 Main Takeaways From Fed

By Kathy LienForexJul 28, 2021 04:58PM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/us-dollar-outlook-and-3-main-takeaways-from-fed-200594332
U.S. Dollar Outlook And 3 Main Takeaways From Fed
By Kathy Lien   |  Jul 28, 2021 04:58PM ET
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The U.S. dollar traded lower against most of the major currencies on the back of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcement. EUR/USD rose to its strongest level in nearly two weeks, while USD/JPY dropped back below 110. Interestingly enough, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell did not appear overly concerned about the Delta variant.
 
In the press conference he said, “What we’ve seen is with successive waves of COVID over the past year and some months now, there has tended to be less in the a way of economic implications from each wave. We’ll see whether that is the case with the Delta variety. But it’s certainly not an unreasonable expectation.”
 
This implies that policy-makers will watch virus trends carefully, but there’s no immediate cause for alarm or shift in expectations for taper. Barring a return to a complete lockdown, the Fed will continue its discussions on reducing asset purchases later this year.
 
The FOMC statement contained a few changes, none of which were extremely market-moving. The Fed took out the line about vaccinations reducing “the spread of COVID-19” in the U.S., but also the word “significantly” from the sentence about the “path of the economy” continuing to “depend on the course of the virus.” This slightly less pessimistic outlook should have been positive for the U.S. dollar, but the greenback sold off when Powell made it clear that while timing is being discussed, it could be months before an official announcement is made. 
 
Investors sold U.S. dollars for the following reasons:
 
1. Fed Downplayed Inflation Rise: Powell admitted that inflation is higher than expected, but called for a bit of patience because he still believes price pressures will fade and most of the recent increases by businesses are one-offs.
 
2. Made No Decisions On Taper Timing: While Powell said the Fed took its “first deep-dive” on how to scale back bond buying, no decisions about the timing of taper were made. He added that ideally you would not raise rates before you taper, and the central bank is still a ways away from considering raising interest rates.
 
3. Said No Substantial Further Progress Made: Pointing to the millions of people still unemployed, Powell stressed that the economy is still a good deal away from making substantial further progress towards stable prices and maximum employment.
 
The main takeaway from today’s FOMC is the central bank remains cautiously optimistic and in no rush to reduce asset purchases. It gave investors very little confidence that a signal to reduce bond buying would come in August. With the uncertainty of the Delta variant in the U.S. and abroad, it will watch how the situation progresses and make a decision on whether to delay a signal when the time comes next month.
 
This is a wise choice considering that states and businesses are beginning to respond to the Center for Disease Control and Prevention’s recommendation for masks in states with high virus rates. Just today, Nevada reinstated a mask mandate in Las Vegas and other high-transmission areas. Kansas City brought back its mandate and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) said it will be asking all staff and shoppers to wear masks at most stores regardless of vaccination status. Mask mandates won't curb economic activity, but if more shoppers are spooked by the Delta variant, the pace of recovery could slow. Stocks pulled back for the first time in seven trading days. Delta virus concerns means more losses are to follow, which could translate into gains for the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc.
U.S. Dollar Outlook And 3 Main Takeaways From Fed
 

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U.S. Dollar Outlook And 3 Main Takeaways From Fed

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Comments (12)
Luqman Firdaus
Luqman Firdaus Aug 04, 2021 7:48AM ET
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Anayo Njoku
Anayo Njoku Jul 30, 2021 1:38PM ET
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l one to no more about this
Anayo Njoku
Anayo Njoku Jul 30, 2021 1:36PM ET
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how are you doing today
Dr Divindre
Dr Divindre Jul 30, 2021 6:52AM ET
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Great article. It gave me an indept understanding in why investors sold the dollars
Erikas Ivan
Erikas Ivan Jul 29, 2021 5:25AM ET
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Great article, thanks
Emilio Mari
Emilio Mari Jul 29, 2021 2:16AM ET
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Now Totem 'Delta variant' . Next one the 'Echo variant'
Ali Akbar Shahsavari
Ali Akbar Shahsavari Jul 29, 2021 1:33AM ET
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ThanksCan I imply from your sharp analysis that its a good time to buy GOLD?
DONGHUN LEE
DONGHUN LEE Jul 28, 2021 11:52PM ET
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We don't know exactly when, but Most of investors're talking that tapering will be in the end of the year, So at least the dollar's value is continuously rising this year.
Todd Gray
Todd Gray Jul 28, 2021 8:24PM ET
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some reliable contrarians expect the dollar drop sharply, gold & silver to climb on the dollar drop, and one final equity bull run to the top of the bubble. perhaps then the real reopening trade begins, when the markets reach reality. then, we'll see a several year bull cycle occur off rational valuations. it's been like a y2k event. they made everybody fear the first day of the year 2020, when in reality computers had another full year until any data issues might occur. we'll soon see.
novarie loekito
novarie loekito Jul 28, 2021 7:21PM ET
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nice. not much movement from the market. hope the + trend continue.
gopa goma
gopa Jul 28, 2021 7:18PM ET
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my comment yesterday, exactly no tapering till end of year. thanks kathy for sharing your knowledge, and i learn alot from you.
borat smagadijev
borat smagadijev Jul 28, 2021 6:36PM ET
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Great article.
 
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