by Blanche Gatt
U.K. lawmakers have crashed headfirst into the Brexit brick wall once too often. In frustration, Parliament has now wrested control of the process from PM Theresa May’s hands—at least for today.
The challenge remains finding a consensus strategy for Brexit that doesn’t risk plunging the country into economic catastrophe. How effective these efforts will be in the long-run remains to be seen. However, later today MPs will explore alternatives to May’s unpopular 'Withdrawal' deal via what's being referred to as 'indicative' voting on a series of Brexit options in an attempt to find out what—if anything—the majority might support.
May’s deal will still be among the options on the list and speculation has intensified that she might bow to pressure and offer to resign in return for support for her plan when and if it’s brought back to Parliament for a third meaningful vote.
Taking Back Control
However, the votes won’t necessarily achieve the defining impact MPs desire. Theresa May has already said she won’t consider the indicative votes as binding, and will not commit to acting on the result if it conflicts with her party’s 2017 electoral manifesto.
She may not have the last word though. MPs could use some of the time this afternoon to debate setting another date for additional indicative votes further down the line.
At least 16 proposals for possible votes were put forward by MPs up to last night, including May’s deal on its third go-round; no-deal; various free-trade alternatives and a second Brexit referendum.
None of them, so far, have proved to have majority support, and of course the no deal option has been rejected twice. Still, it remains the legal default if no agreement is in place by the extended deadline of April 12.
Voting will start at 7pm, with results expected at 9pm GMT. It may continue on Monday to allow MPs to find a single preference out of the narrowed-down options. MPs will be free to vote for as many proposals as they want to support. Whatever the outcome, the fact that so many MPs joined together to defy the government and force these votes is a significant breakthrough.
Asserting Authority
In grasping the precedent in this way, parliament has reasserted its own authority, seizing control of the process in an attempt to break the impasse over leaving the EU. Today’s indicative votes may not be binding, but they could at last offer some idea of where the majority opinion within parliament lies.
That, in turn, could be the signal that the U.K. is ready to start dragging itself out of the quagmire that Brexit has so alarmingly become.
Potential Indicative Vote Outcomes
Some probable options that could result from the indicative vote:
1. Theresa May’s Deal: This has already been resoundingly defeated twice. It's unlikely to pass on the third attempt. However, several of the most determined Brexiters, including harsh opponent of May’s plan and vigorous No Deal promoter, Jacob Reese-Mogg, have indicated they may change their minds and vote for the deal after all.
This turnaround yesterday, which would make a No Deal outcome less likely, immediately energized the pound, which bounced versus both the dollar and the euro after his statement, before pulling back slightly.
2. No Deal: This has already been ruled out in two non-binding votes, so the will of parliament on crashing out of the EU without a deal is fairly well established. However, it remains the legal default if no other agreement is arrived at by the extended April 12 deadline, unless and until MPs agree on legislation to change the date.
3. Malthouse Deal: One version of this would keep May's deal in essence, but replace the Northern Irish backstop with "technical solutions" yet to be defined. A second version suggests seeking a "standstill" arrangement with the EU while a free trade deal is negotiated.
4. Remaining in the Customs Union: The Labour Party is pushing for some form of this option. It would keep the U.K. in the customs union, thereby allowing free trade, but take it out of the single market which is a deeper level of participation with the European Union, though retaining alignment with the bloc on future EU rights and regulations. Such a deal could also mean the U.K. would have to keep some kind of freedom of movement with the EU.
6. Second Referendum/Public Vote: Either as an option on its own, or as a condition of approval of whichever other option is voted on, this would satisfy growing demand that the people should have the right to vote on any solution parliament comes up with.
7. Revoke Article 50 and Remain in the European Union: This would be simplest to achieve. However, it’s unlikely to attract much support across the House of Commons, as MPs fear appearing to ignore the “will of the people” expressed in the 2016 referendum.