Since my last post discussing YIELD into last Friday's low at 2.09% -- when I also commented that, "if I was refinancing my mortgage, I would give the benefit of the doubt to waiting a while longer prior to locking in my new rate," YIELD has gone straight up -- exactly the opposite of what appeared to be unfolding during the second half of May.
In fact, in just 4 sessions, the 10-year yield has climbed from 2.09% to 2.34%!
Why?
I can only surmise that 1) we are witnessing very thin markets, 2) investors want to exit Treasuries in ahead of what they think is a Fed that is determined to raise rates once or twice this year and 3) that an increasing number of people believe disinflation or deflation have bottomed in the U.S., Europe and even Japan.
Otherwise, the U.S. and global economy remain stuck in the mud, which makes the surge in yield that much more mysterious.
